Canadiens vs. Avalanche Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 14

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Bell Centre

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Colorado Avalanche vs Montréal Canadiens

Colorado and Montréal have spent much of the season making life miserable for opposing goaltenders. The Avalanche are scoring 4.05 goals per game, second-most in the NHL, while the Canadiens haven't lost in regulation since October 14. Saturday's meeting at Bell Centre has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. There's just one rather large complication.

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both left Colorado's overtime loss to Ottawa on Thursday with injuries, leaving the Avalanche potentially without their two most important players. That's a considerable amount of firepower to have sitting in the press box, particularly against a Montréal team that's been awfully difficult to put away.

The Canadiens (12-3-4) are slight -115 favourites over Colorado (11-6-3), with the moneyline essentially a coin flip. Our attention is on the 6.5-goal total, where Over at +100 offers value. But with MacKinnon and Makar's availability uncertain, checking the lineups before betting will be key.

Over 6.5 Goals: +100

Neither team has been particularly interested in low-scoring hockey. Colorado's games are averaging 7.2 combined goals, with 14 of 20 clearing 6.5. Montréal isn't far behind, with 12 of its 19 games going over that number, including eight of 10 at Bell Centre.

The Canadiens have also been generous with power-play opportunities, averaging 3.84 times shorthanded per game, third-most in the NHL. That's a dangerous habit against an Avalanche team averaging 4.05 goals per game. Montréal has enough offensive talent to contribute at the other end, making this a matchup where both teams could do their share of the scoring.

Our scoring model gives Over 6.5 a 57.4% chance of hitting, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 47.8%. Blending those figures produces a final probability of 52.6%.

At +100, we need the game to reach seven goals at least 50% of the time to break even. Our estimate gives us a 2.6-percentage-point edge, comfortably above our 1.0-point minimum.

The biggest concern is Colorado's injury situation. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both left Thursday's game against Ottawa, and neither is confirmed for Saturday. Losing either would weaken the Avalanche offence; losing both could change the entire outlook for this total. Our model doesn't account for those potential absences, so their availability needs to be confirmed before placing a bet.

Over 6.5 goals at +100 is our best bet, playable down to -105, only if MacKinnon and Makar are available.

Bet on Avalanche vs Canadiens: Over 6.5 Goals (+100)

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Montréal Canadiens

Montréal hasn't lost in regulation in 12 games, and Thursday's 5-2 victory over Boston showed why the Canadiens have been so difficult to beat. They scored the first five goals, chased Jeremy Swayman from the Bruins' net and got contributions throughout the lineup. Josh Anderson and Jake Evans each finished with a goal and an assist, while Cole Caufield extended his point streak to five games.

Caufield has 12 goals this season, giving Montréal a dangerous finishing threat alongside Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovský. The Canadiens average 3.42 goals per game, eighth in the NHL, despite a power play converting at just 13.8%, ranking 30th.

The defensive picture is less convincing. Montréal allows 3.00 goals per game, and its 78.1% penalty kill ranks 16th. Jacob Fowler has provided excellent goaltending, making 30 saves against Boston and improving to 9-0-2 over his last 11 starts. But the Canadiens can't expect their rookie netminder to rescue them every night, particularly against an Avalanche offence capable of scoring in bunches.

Chris Kreider's availability is another concern after he left Thursday's game with a leg injury. Montréal has enough scoring depth to remain dangerous, but losing another forward would test that depth against Colorado.

Montréal Canadiens Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Jacob Fowler (projected); Jakub Dobes (alternative). Starter unconfirmed.
• Recent starts: Fowler started November 7, 10 and 12; Dobes started November 5.
• Forwards: C. Caufield, N. Suzuki, J. Slafkovský, Z. Bolduc, P. Danault, A. Texier, C. Kreider, J. Evans, J. Anderson, A. Newhook, O. Kapanen, K. Dach.
• Defence: L. Hutson, N. Dobson, K. Guhle, M. Matheson, A. Xhekaj, A. Carrier.

Injuries and Availability

• Chris Kreider: Day-to-day (leg). Left Thursday's game against Boston; Saturday availability remains uncertain.
• Samuel Montembeault: Injured reserve (lower body); expected out until at least November 14.
• Ivan Demidov: Injured reserve (ankle); expected out until at least November 14.

Projected lineup is based on Montréal's November 12 game and available pregame reports. Kreider is included provisionally. Starting goalie, line combinations and injury statuses are subject to change.

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado has scored at least three goals in 11 of its 20 games, and its 4.05 goals-per-game average ranks second in the NHL. Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 30 points in 20 games, while Cale Makar has 23 points in 19. Losing either would be a serious blow to an offence that has made scoring look relatively easy this season.

But Colorado has more than two players capable of creating problems. Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 14 goals, Martin Necas has contributed 24 points, and Gabriel Landeskog scored twice in Tuesday's 6-3 win over Toronto. Thirteen Avalanche players recorded a point in that victory, a reminder that opponents can't spend an entire night worrying about MacKinnon.

Thursday's 4-3 overtime loss to Ottawa offered another example of that depth. With MacKinnon and Makar both injured in the second period, Colorado rallied from a 2-0 deficit to take a 3-2 lead. Lehkonen scored on the power play, Parker Kelly added a shorthanded goal, and Landeskog put the Avalanche ahead before Ottawa forced overtime. It was an impressive response, even if the result didn't go their way.

Defensively, the Avalanche have not been as solid, allowing 3.10 goals per game, tied for 16th in the league. Seven of their 10 road games have cleared 6.5 goals, and Montréal has enough scoring talent to make Colorado work at both ends of the ice.

The injuries remain the biggest question. MacKinnon and Makar are both day-to-day, and their availability could determine whether Colorado's offensive depth is enough to sustain another high-scoring game.

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood or Scott Wedgewood. Starter unconfirmed.
• Recent starts: Blackwood started November 5, 7 and 10; Wedgewood started November 12.
• Forwards: A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas, G. Landeskog, N. Kadri, N. Roy, J. Schwartz, B. Nelson, T.J. Hughes, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, L. O'Connor.
• Defence: B. Kulak, C. Makar, D. Toews, S. Malinski, N. Juulsen, B. Burns.

Injuries and Availability

• Nathan MacKinnon: Day-to-day (lower body). Left November 12 against Ottawa; Saturday availability unconfirmed.
• Cale Makar: Day-to-day (lower body). Left the Ottawa game in the second period; Saturday availability unconfirmed.
• Josh Manson: Long-term injured reserve (ankle); expected out until at least December 27.
• Zachary L'Heureux: Injured reserve (upper body); expected out until at least November 27.

Roster Updates

• Gavin Brindley: Recalled from AHL Colorado on November 13. Could enter the lineup if MacKinnon is unavailable.
• Alex Gagne: Recalled as defensive depth; could make his NHL debut if Makar cannot play.

Projected lineup is based on Colorado's recent games and available November 13 reports. MacKinnon and Makar are included provisionally. Starting goalie, line combinations and injury statuses are subject to change.

Moneyline

Canadiens -115 | Avalanche -106

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Montréal Canadiens Last Five Games

Colorado Avalanche Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Canadiens vs Avalanche Prediction

Montréal has been nearly impossible to beat in regulation, but Colorado is one of the few teams with enough offensive depth to challenge the Canadiens at Bell Centre. The Avalanche can generate scoring chances throughout their lineup, while Montréal has the finishing talent to punish Colorado's defensive mistakes.

The recent head-to-head results suggest these teams are comfortable trading goals. Three of their four meetings since the start of the 2024–25 season have cleared 6.5 goals, including Montréal's 7-3 victory at Bell Centre on January 29. Both clubs have also gone Over 6.5 in three of their last five games.

Our model projects 6.84 combined goals, putting seven within reach. Montréal holds a narrow 51%–49% edge in our win probabilities, but that's hardly enough to justify backing the Canadiens at -115. The moneyline offers little separation between our estimate and the market.

The total is a different story. Colorado's offensive depth, Montréal's scoring ability and the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides give this matchup a credible path to seven goals.

If both Avalanche stars are available, Over 6.5 at +100 remains our preferred play, with -105 the lowest price we'd accept. If either sits, we'd reassess rather than force the bet.

There's very little separating these teams. Our model projects 3.43 goals for Montréal and 3.42 for Colorado, with the Canadiens holding the slightest advantage on home ice.

A 3-3 tie is our most likely individual regulation score at 4.8%, which tells you just how closely this matchup projects. Once overtime and shootout outcomes are included, a 4-3 Canadiens victory carries a 6.5% probability, narrowly ahead of a 4-3 Avalanche win at 6.4%.

Montréal has made a habit of finding ways to earn points, and its ability to finish chances gives it a narrow edge. But Colorado has enough scoring depth to keep this competitive, particularly if Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are healthy.

Our exact score prediction is Canadiens 4, Avalanche 3. We're not interested in laying -115 on such a close matchup. With both Colorado stars available, we'd rather back seven combined goals at +100 or better, playable down to -105.

The winner is a coin flip. The better betting argument is that neither goaltender gets an easy night.