Penguins vs. Senators Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 14

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Ottawa has the better record, the stronger defence and a much more convincing start to the season. Pittsburgh has home ice, an extra day of rest and just enough offensive talent to make the Senators regret overlooking a team that's won only seven of its first 19 games.

The Senators (12-6-2) arrive after Thursday's 4-3 overtime victory against Colorado, while the Penguins (7-10-2) return home following Wednesday's 3-2 shootout win in San Jose. Pittsburgh's biggest problem has been keeping the puck out of its own net, allowing 3.47 goals per game compared with Ottawa's 3.00.

That makes the Senators an appealing side, but there's a difference between liking a team and liking its price.

Ottawa is a -122 favourite at bet365, with Pittsburgh at +101 and the total set at 6.5 goals. Our model gives the Senators a narrow advantage, but not enough to justify the current moneyline. We'd need a better price before backing the visitors.

Senators Moneyline: Wait for -105 or Better

Ottawa has been the more reliable team, particularly in its own end. The Senators allow 3.00 goals per game, tied for 13th in the NHL. That defensive advantage gives Ottawa a reasonable path to two points, especially against a Penguins team that has struggled to string together consistent performances so far this season.

Pittsburgh has a few things working in its favour. The Penguins are 4-3-1 at home, while Ottawa is 5-4-1 on the road. Pittsburgh also has an extra day of rest, and its 21.1% power play could cause problems for a Senators penalty kill ranked 21st. Ottawa may be the better team, but this isn't a matchup where we'd expect the visitors to have everything their way.

Our scoring model gives Ottawa a 53.6% chance of winning, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 52.5%. Blending those figures produces a final probability of 53.1%.

At -122, Ottawa needs to win 54.9% of the time to break even. Our estimate falls roughly 1.9 percentage points short, making the current price a pass.

At -105, however, the break-even probability drops to 51.2%, giving us approximately 1.8 percentage points of value. That's enough to clear our minimum edge requirement.

The difference between -122 and -105 might not look particularly dramatic on a sportsbook screen, but it's the difference between paying too much for Ottawa and getting a price that works in our favour.

Senators moneyline at -105 or better is our target. At the current -122, we're passing.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh's biggest problem hasn't been creating offence. It's been keeping the puck out of its own net. The Penguins allow 3.47 goals per game, tied for 24th in the NHL, and have already lost six games by multiple goals. That's a lot of ground to make up for a team sitting at 7-10-2.

Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 19 points, an impressive contribution from the blue line, while Evgeni Malkin has 17 in 17 games. Karlsson's ability to join the rush and move the puck gives Pittsburgh another attacking option, although that aggressive style can leave the Penguins exposed when possession changes.

Special teams offer Pittsburgh a lifeline. Its power play is converting at 21.1%, ranking 17th, while the penalty kill sits 13th at 78.8%. Ottawa's penalty kill ranks 21st, so getting Crosby and Malkin opportunities with the extra man could make a difference in a game where the Penguins may struggle to match Ottawa at even strength.

Wednesday's 3-2 shootout win over San Jose gave Pittsburgh a much-needed win, but the larger defensive concerns remain. The Penguins have the offensive talent to punish Ottawa's mistakes. The question is whether they can avoid making more of their own.

With home ice and an extra day of rest, Pittsburgh has a chance to keep this close. But against a Senators team that can attack with speed, those defensive lapses are difficult to ignore.

Pittsburgh Penguins Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Sergei Murashov or Arturs Silovs. Starter unconfirmed; Daily Faceoff lists Murashov first.
• Recent starts: Murashov started November 7 and 11; Silovs started November 8.
• Forwards: E. Malkin, S. Crosby, R. Rakell, N. Robertson, B. Kindel, E. Chinakhov, V. Koivunen, T. Novak, J. Brazeau, R. McGroarty, B. Lizotte, C. Dewar.
• Defence: S. Stastney, E. Karlsson, S. Girard, K. Korczak, D. Carlile, K. Letang.

Injuries and Availability

• Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured reserve (lower body); listed out until at least November 14. Saturday availability uncertain.
• Elmer Soderblom: Injured reserve (upper body); listed out until at least November 14.
• Bryan Rust: Injured reserve (lower body); listed out until at least December 5.

Projected lineup is based on Daily Faceoff's November 12 update and Pittsburgh's November 11 game. Injury information is from CBS Sports and Daily Faceoff. Starting goalie, line combinations and player availability are subject to change.

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa's 12-6-2 record looks even better when you consider how little help the Senators have received from their power play. They're converting just 11.8% of their opportunities, ranking 31st in the NHL, yet they've still managed to win six more games than they've lost in regulation.

Tim Stützle has been doing much of the heavy lifting offensively, leading Ottawa with 24 points and sharing the team lead in goals with Drake Batherson at 10 apiece. Stützle's speed through the neutral zone is particularly dangerous against a Pittsburgh defence that has struggled to contain opponents. If the Penguins give him room to attack with possession, they're asking for trouble.

Thursday's 4-3 overtime win over Colorado was a good example of Ottawa's resilience. The Senators surrendered a 2-0 lead and trailed 3-2 late in the third before Batherson buried a rebound to force overtime. Shane Pinto then intercepted a pass in Colorado's zone and scored his second goal of the night to win it. Ottawa wasn't perfect, but it found a way to beat one of the league's most dangerous offensive teams.

Linus Ullmark also returned after missing nine games with a lower-body injury, stopping 26 shots against Colorado. His return is encouraging for a team allowing 3.00 goals per game, although the Senators still need to tighten up their penalty killing. Pittsburgh's power play is considerably more effective than Ottawa's, so avoiding taking penalties will be key.

Saturday begins a two-game road trip, with Winnipeg waiting on November 17. Ottawa doesn't need a perfect night on special teams to beat Pittsburgh. It needs Stützle and Batherson to keep attacking a defence that's already given opponents far too many chances.

Ottawa Senators Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Linus Ullmark or Samuel Ersson. Starter unconfirmed; Daily Faceoff lists Ullmark first.
• Recent starts: Ersson started November 7 and 10; Ullmark started November 12.
• Forwards: F. Zetterlund, T. Stützle, D. Cozens, P. Tomasino, S. Pinto, D. Batherson, C. Giroux, R. Greig, M. Amadio, S. Blais, S. Halliday, H. Hodgson.
• Defence: J. Sanderson, A. Zub, T. Chabot, J. Spence, T. Kleven, N. Matinpalo.

Injuries and Availability

• Nick Cousins: Upper-body injury; expected to miss 7–10 days following the November 12 update.
• Andre Burakovsky: Injured reserve (lower body); listed out until at least November 27.
• Warren Foegele: Injured reserve (knee); listed out until at least November 25.
• William Eklund: Injured reserve (ankle); listed out until at least January 5.

Projected lineup is based on Daily Faceoff's November 13 update and Ottawa's November 12 game. Injury information is from CBS Sports and NHL.com. Starting goalie, line combinations and player availability are subject to change.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Penguins vs Senators Win Probability

Pittsburgh Penguins Last Five Games

Ottawa Senators Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Penguins vs Senators Prediction

Ottawa has won four of its six meetings with Pittsburgh since the start of the 2024–25 season, including two of three at PPG Paints Arena. Five of those games finished under 6.5 goals, although six meetings aren't enough to draw sweeping conclusions.

Discipline could decide how much that advantage matters. Ottawa's penalty killing has been unreliable, and Pittsburgh has enough experience on its power play to turn a couple of careless penalties into goals. If the Senators stay out of the box, their stronger defensive play should give them the upper hand. If they don't, this could get uncomfortable quickly.

Our blended model gives Ottawa a 53.1% chance of winning, barely above the market's margin-free estimate of 52.5%. Pittsburgh's +101 moneyline isn't attractive either, requiring a 49.8% win probability against our 46.9% estimate.

The other markets don't offer much relief. Ottawa -1.5 at +240 comes closest to qualifying, but still falls 0.2 percentage points short of break-even. With Pittsburgh rested and playing at home, asking Ottawa to win by multiple goals is a bigger gamble than we're willing to make.

The Senators are our pick, but there's no reason to pay -122 for a game our model sees as nearly a coin flip. At -105, we're interested. At the current price, we'll sit this one out.

Our model projects 3.29 goals for Ottawa and 3.05 for Pittsburgh, an expected total of 6.34. A 3-3 tie after regulation is the most likely individual scoreline at 5.0%, while a 3-2 Senators victory leads the final-score probabilities at 4.9%, narrowly ahead of Pittsburgh winning 3-2 at 4.5%.

Those probabilities tell an interesting story. Even our most likely final score happens less than once in 20 games, and the difference between a 3-2 Ottawa win and the reverse result is just 0.4 percentage points. Simply put, there isn't much separating these teams once the puck drops.

Our exact score prediction is Senators 3, Penguins 2. Ottawa gets the nod, but we're not paying -122 for such a narrow advantage.