Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 14

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Three weeks ago, Toronto walked into Edmonton and hammered the Oilers 7-2. Now the Maple Leafs are trying to avoid a sixth straight loss, while the team they embarrassed has become nearly impossible to beat.

Edmonton arrives Saturday riding a three-game winning streak and a 7-0-1 road record. The Oilers are scoring four goals per game, third-most in the NHL, which isn't exactly encouraging news for a Toronto defence that's been giving up goals in bunches.

Edmonton (14-3-3) is the -164 favourite against Toronto (8-11-2), but the Leafs have already shown they can hurt this Oilers team, and their +1.5 puck line offers a more interesting betting angle. At the current -172, though, we'd rather wait for a better price.

Maple Leafs +1.5 Puck Line: Wait for -160 or Better

Toronto has lost five straight, and the defeats are getting uglier. Four of the Leafs' six multi-goal losses this season have come during that skid. That's hardly a reassuring trend when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are coming to town.

Edmonton has won 11 of its 20 games by at least two goals, so there's a legitimate risk of another lopsided result. But Toronto isn't completely outmatched offensively. The Leafs have the NHL's seventh-ranked power play at 27.1%, and Edmonton's 76.9% penalty kill ranks 18th. That gives Toronto a potential route to keeping this competitive, even if the Oilers control much of the game.

Our scoring model gives Maple Leafs +1.5 a 64.6% chance of covering, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 60.8%. Blending those figures produces a 62.7% probability.

At -172, the puck line needs to cover 63.2% of the time to break even, leaving us slightly short of value.

At -160, that requirement drops to 61.5%, giving us approximately 1.2 percentage points of value. That's enough to clear our 1.0-point minimum. Toronto has enough offensive talent to keep this close, but we're not paying -172.

See the current Oilers vs Maple Leafs odds at bet365

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto's offence hasn't disappeared, but its defence is making life awfully difficult. The Maple Leafs average 3.29 goals per game, 14th in the NHL, yet surrender 3.52, ranking 26th. They've allowed at least four goals in each of their last four games, and their 4-8-1 home record offers little reassurance ahead of Edmonton's visit.

Auston Matthews remains the biggest reason Toronto can compete. The captain has 12 goals and 29 points through 21 games, including a goal in Thursday's 5-2 loss to Minnesota. William Nylander also gives the Leafs another proven scoring threat, while their seventh-ranked power play (27.1%) could cause problems for Edmonton's struggling penalty kill.

The trouble is that Toronto's offence has been spending too much time trying to repair the damage at the other end. The Leafs have been outscored 22-9 during their five-game home losing streak. Against McDavid and Draisaitl, another defensive breakdown could turn a competitive game into a comfortable Oilers win in a hurry.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Anthony Stolarz (projected); Sergei Bobrovsky (backup). Starter not confirmed.
• Recent starts: Stolarz started November 8 and 12; Bobrovsky started November 10.
• Forwards: E. Cowan, A. Matthews, J. Roslovic, R. Tverberg, J. Tavares, W. Nylander, G. McKenna, N. Paul, D. Joshua, B. Duhaime, T. Blueger, Z. MacEwen.
• Defence: J. McCabe, D. Raddysh, O. Ekman-Larsson, T. Stecher, D. Mermis, C. McWard.

Injuries and Availability

• Morgan Rielly: Lower-body injury; missed recent games. Saturday availability requires confirmation.
• Chris Tanev: Missed November 12 for planned maintenance; could return Saturday.
• Colton Sissons: Injured reserve (lower body); week-to-week.
• Kirill Marchenko: Injured reserve (lower body).
• Nick Blankenburg: Injured reserve (upper body).
• Marshall Rifai: Injured reserve (lower body).
• Miles Wood: Injured reserve (undisclosed).

Projected lineup is based on Toronto's November 12 game and available pregame reports. Starting goalie, defensive pairings and injury statuses are subject to change.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid has always enjoyed playing in his hometown. The Richmond Hill native has six goals and 15 assists in 12 career games in Toronto, averaging 1.75 points per appearance. And he's arriving on a roll, having recorded a point in all 20 games this season. McDavid leads the NHL with 49 points, including 38 assists, while Leon Draisaitl has already scored 18 goals. For a Maple Leafs defence that's been leaking goals, the timing couldn't be much worse.

The Oilers aren't relying entirely on their superstars, either. Zach Hyman scored twice in Wednesday's 3-2 overtime win against Philadelphia, while Evan Bouchard delivered the winner just 47 seconds into overtime. Bouchard's production from the blue line gives Edmonton another attacking dimension, particularly when opponents become too focused on McDavid and Draisaitl.

Edmonton has also been reasonably effective defensively, allowing 2.80 goals per game, although its 76.9% penalty kill ranks just 18th. That could become a problem against Toronto's dangerous power play. The Oilers have more than enough offence to punish the Leafs at even strength, but unnecessary penalties could give Toronto a way back into the game.

Saturday is also the first half of a back-to-back, with Edmonton visiting Philadelphia on Sunday. Managing that schedule while facing a desperate Toronto team adds another wrinkle, even if the Oilers' unbeaten regulation record on the road suggests they're well-equipped for the challenge.

Edmonton Oilers Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Devon Levi or Tristan Jarry. Starter unconfirmed.
• Recent starts: Levi started November 7 and 9; Jarry started November 11.
• Forwards: V. Podkolzin, C. McDavid, L. Draisaitl, C. Dach, R. Nugent-Hopkins, Z. Hyman, K. Kapanen, J. Dickinson, T. Frederic, A. Formenton, O. Michaels, M. Joseph.
• Defence: M. Ekholm, E. Bouchard, R. Shea, C. Murphy, S. Mukhamadullin, T. Emberson.

Injuries and Availability

• Frederik Andersen: Injured reserve (knee); expected out until at least January 9.
• Isaac Howard: Injured reserve (knee); expected out until at least November 17.
• Mattias Janmark: Injured reserve (undisclosed); expected out until at least November 28.
• Alec Regula: Injured reserve (undisclosed); expected out until at least November 21.
• Matt Savoie: Injured reserve (lower body); expected out until at least November 24.

Projected lineup is based on Edmonton's November 11 game and available pregame reports. Starting goalie, line combinations and injury statuses are subject to change.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Toronto Maple Leafs Last Five Games

Edmonton Oilers Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers Prediction

Toronto has won four of its last five meetings with Edmonton, including a 7-2 demolition at Rogers Place on October 24. The Leafs have had a knack for frustrating the Oilers, but their current play makes another upset difficult to envision. Edmonton is rolling, while Toronto has spent its entire five-game homestand looking for answers.

Still, picking the Oilers to win and backing them at -164 are two different decisions. Our blended model gives Edmonton a 58.9% chance of winning, slightly below the market's margin-free estimate of 59.5%. At -164, the Oilers need to win 62.1% of the time to justify the price. We don't see that value.

The total is tempting, particularly with Edmonton's firepower and Toronto's defensive struggles. Our model projects 6.91 goals, above the 6.5 line, but Over 6.5 at -145 falls 1.6 percentage points short of our break-even requirement. Under 6.5 at +122 misses by 2.6 points. Neither is worth forcing.

Edmonton has the stronger team and the league's leading scorer returning to his hometown. But Toronto has enough offensive talent, particularly on the power play, to make this uncomfortable for the visitors. We're taking the Oilers to win a close one, with Maple Leafs +1.5 becoming our preferred bet only if the price improves to -160 or better.

Our model projects 3.73 goals for Edmonton and 3.18 for Toronto, an expected total of 6.91. A 3-3 tie after regulation has the highest individual score probability at 4.6%, while 3-2 and 4-3 Oilers victories are close behind at 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively. We're going with 4-3, a result that fits the projected scoring environment.

McDavid's homecoming could be another long night for Toronto's defence, but Matthews, Nylander and the Leafs' dangerous power play should have opportunities of their own. Edmonton has the firepower to win a shootout, although Toronto has already demonstrated it can trade punches with the Oilers.

Three weeks ago, Toronto embarrassed Edmonton 7-2. Since then, the Leafs have forgotten how to win at home, while the Oilers have forgotten how to lose on the road. We're picking Edmonton to get its revenge with a 4-3 victory. But revenge and betting value are two different things, and we're not laying -164 to find out.