Kings vs. Flames Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 14

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Calgary Flames vs Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles has won just twice in nine home games, lost three straight and somehow enters Saturday as a -172 favourite. Calgary isn't exactly arriving with a glowing résumé either. The Flames are 2-5-1 on the road and have managed just 13 goals in eight away games.

The Flames (8-10-1) visit the Kings (5-10-2) at Crypto.com Arena, with both clubs looking to escape another rough stretch. Los Angeles fell 5-2 to the Islanders on Thursday, while Calgary lost 3-1 to the Rangers on Wednesday.

Neither team has given bettors much reason for confidence, but the price on Los Angeles is particularly interesting. The Kings are being asked to win, and win convincingly, to cover the puck line despite their struggles at home.

bet365 has Los Angeles at -172, Calgary at +145 and the total at 5.5 goals. We're not convinced the Kings have earned that kind of respect. Flames +1.5 at -167 is where our model sees value.

Flames +1.5 Puck Line: -167

Los Angeles is a -172 moneyline favourite despite winning just twice in nine home games. More importantly for this bet, the Kings have won by multiple goals only once in those nine contests. Asking them to beat Calgary by two or more isn't nearly as straightforward as the moneyline suggests.

Calgary's biggest opportunity comes on special teams. The Flames are converting 29.5% of their power plays, fourth-best in the NHL, against a Kings penalty kill operating at just 65.5%. Calgary has struggled to generate offence on the road, but it won't necessarily need three or four even-strength goals to stay competitive if Los Angeles gives power play opportunities.

There are legitimate concerns. Calgary has lost by multiple goals in 10 of its 19 games, including five on the road. The Flames aren't suddenly a reliable defensive team because they're getting an extra goal and a half.

Our scoring model gives Calgary +1.5 a 68.9% chance of covering, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 60.0%. Blending those figures produces a 64.5% probability. At -167, the break-even point is 62.5%, leaving approximately two percentage points of value.

That's enough to qualify, but the margin is relatively thin. We're backing Flames +1.5 at -170 or better, with -167 currently available at bet365. If the price moves beyond our threshold, we'll pass.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings have enough offensive talent to be considerably better than their 2.76 goals per game suggest. Artemi Panarin leads the team with 18 points, Adrian Kempe has 13, and Quinton Byfield gives Los Angeles another dangerous option down the middle. Yet the Kings rank 26th in scoring, and that talent hasn't translated into consistent production.

Kevin Fiala's return offers some hope. Playing his first game of the season Thursday against the Islanders, Fiala picked up an assist while skating alongside Byfield and Mats Zuccarello. That gives Los Angeles another legitimate scoring threat, although expecting him to immediately solve the team's offensive problems after such a long absence would be asking a lot.

The bigger concern is what happens in the Kings' own end. Los Angeles allows 3.53 goals per game, ranking 28th, and has surrendered 13 goals during its three-game losing streak. Against the Islanders, the Kings repeatedly struggled to protect the dangerous areas around their net, allowing goals off rebounds and loose pucks in the slot.

Goaltending hasn't provided much relief. Darcy Kuemper carries an .873 save percentage and 3.58 goals-against average, while Anton Forsberg has been steadier at .907 and 2.44. Whoever starts Saturday will need better support from the defence.

Los Angeles still has the forwards to punish Calgary's defensive mistakes, particularly with Panarin creating chances and Fiala back in the lineup. But until the Kings start defending their crease more effectively, it's difficult to trust them to build and protect a multi-goal lead.

Los Angeles Kings Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Darcy Kuemper or Anton Forsberg could start. Starter unconfirmed; Daily Faceoff lists Kuemper first.
• Recent starts: Kuemper started November 7 and 12; Forsberg started November 10.
• Forwards: A. Panarin, A. Laferriere, A. Kempe, K. Fiala, Q. Byfield, M. Zuccarello, T. Moore, E. Haula, J. Armia, A. Lee, S. Laughton, C. Perry.
• Defence: M. Anderson, D. Doughty, B. Dumoulin, B. Clarke, J. Edmundson, C. Ceci.

Injuries and Availability

• Erik Gustafsson: Daily Faceoff lists him as day-to-day; CBS Sports lists him out until at least November 14 (updated November 12).

Roster Update

• Kevin Fiala: Activated from injured reserve (NHL.com) and played in the Kings' November 12 game.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's November 13 update and Los Angeles's November 12 game. Injury and availability information is from CBS Sports, Daily Faceoff and NHL.com.

Calgary Flames

Calgary's biggest problem isn't difficult to identify. The Flames average just 2.47 goals per game, ranking 28th in the NHL, and have scored only 13 times in eight road contests. Joel Farabee leads the team with 17 points in 19 games, but there hasn't been enough consistent scoring behind him.

Farabee, Mikael Backlund and Matt Coronato give Calgary a capable top line, while Morgan Frost and Yegor Sharangovich offer additional offensive options. The trouble is turning that talent into sustained pressure. Too often, the Flames have needed their goaltending to keep them within striking distance while the offence searches for answers.

Devin Cooley has been doing his part. His .914 save percentage and 2.63 goals-against average are considerably better than Dustin Wolf's .869 and 3.75. Cooley has also started Calgary's last two games, making him the more likely option Saturday, although the starter remains unconfirmed.

Defensively, Calgary is hardly airtight, allowing 3.47 goals per game. But its penalty kill has been respectable at 81.4%, ranking ninth, and that could matter against a Los Angeles power play converting at 22.8%.

The Flames aren't built to win many track meets right now. Their best chance is to get another solid performance in net, limit the damage at even strength and make their scoring opportunities count. With Los Angeles struggling to finish chances and protect its own net, Calgary doesn't need to dominate this matchup to make things uncomfortable for the favourite.

Calgary Flames Projected Lineup

• Goalie: Devin Cooley or Dustin Wolf could start. Starter unconfirmed.
• Recent starts: Wolf started November 6; Cooley started November 8 and 11.
• Forwards: J. Farabee, M. Backlund, M. Coronato, Y. Sharangovich, M. Frost, A. Suniev, M. Gridin, M. Pospisil, R. Strome, B. Othmann, J. Castagna, A. Klapka.
• Defence: J. Hanley, S. Nemec, J. Middleton, Z. Whitecloud, Y. Kuznetsov, Z. Parekh.

Injuries and Availability

• Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured reserve (hip); expected out until at least November 15 (CBS Sports, updated November 10).
• Kevin Bahl: Injured reserve (Achilles); NHL.com reported on November 8 that he will undergo season-ending surgery.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's November 12 update and Calgary's November 11 game. Injury information is from CBS Sports, Daily Faceoff and NHL.com.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Kings vs Flames Win Probability

Los Angeles Kings Last Five Games

Calgary Flames Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Kings vs Flames Prediction

Calgary has had Los Angeles's number recently, winning six of seven meetings since the start of the 2024–25 season. Three of those victories came by a single goal, and only one of the seven games finished over 5.5. History doesn't guarantee another close game, but it does give us another reason to question the gap between these teams.

The Kings still have the stronger chance of winning. Our blended model puts Los Angeles at 57.9%, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 60.8%. Calgary's +145 moneyline offers a modest 1.3-percentage-point edge, but the puck line gives us a better margin for error.

Neither total qualifies. Over 5.5 at -123 falls 0.3 percentage points short of break-even, while Under 5.5 at +102 misses by 4.4 points. We're not forcing a second bet just because there's another market available.

Los Angeles has the offensive talent to win this game, especially with Kevin Fiala back in the lineup. But Calgary doesn't need to be the better team for 60 minutes. It needs to avoid the kind of defensive collapse that turns a competitive game into a comfortable Kings victory.

Our prediction is a Los Angeles win, but Flames +1.5 at -167 is the bet. The Kings may take the two points. We're backing Calgary to make them work for it.

Our model projects 3.21 goals for Los Angeles and 2.89 for Calgary, an expected total of 6.10. A 3-2 Kings victory is the most likely final score at 7.6%, narrowly ahead of a 3-2 Flames win at 7.1%.

Those numbers point toward a competitive game, even with Los Angeles holding a 57.9% chance of winning outright. Calgary's offence has struggled away from home, but the Kings have been generous enough defensively to give the Flames opportunities.

Our exact score prediction is Kings 3, Flames 2. We expect Los Angeles to come out on top, but a one-goal game suits our betting angle perfectly. That's why we're taking Calgary +1.5 rather than chasing an outright upset.