College Football Playoff: Ole Miss vs Miami Odds, Analysis, & Picks

A berth in the 2026 National Championship is on the line on Thursday, January 8, as the Ole Miss Rebels face the Miami Hurricanes in the Fiesta Bowl, which is also the CFP Semifinals. The kick-off for this matchup is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The No. 6 Rebels prevailed in the quarterfinals as they knocked off Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. As for the Canes, they pulled off a massive upset, beating title-holders Ohio State. Read on for the Ole Miss vs Miami picks.

Odds provided by TonyBet.

Ole Miss vs Miami Odds

The Hurricanes head into this matchup as a -182 favorite at online betting sportsbooks. Ole Miss returns at +135 on the moneyline. Miami is also laying a slim 3.5 points on the spread, while the total is set at 52 points.

These two programs have met three times, but their last game was in 1951. Both Miami and Ole Miss are making their first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoff.

Ole Miss vs Miami Analysis

The Rebels weren’t exactly considered a National Championship contender before this season, but they’ve made a Cinderella run that has put them on the doorstep of competing for the grand prize. Ole Miss is led by senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who can do it all. The signal-caller has thrown for 3,660 yards and 21 touchdowns against three interceptions while completing 66.4% of his passes. He’s also collected over 500 yards rushing and eight TDs. Chambliss will be a difference-maker in the Fiesta Bowl.

The senior was electric against Georgia, completing 30 of 46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns. He also had lots of help from top running back Kewan Lacy, who ran for 98 yards and two scores. Ole Miss wasn’t great defensively, but they showed the ability to put up points in bunches against a very solid Bulldogs team. Ole Miss will have no shortage of confidence here, but Miami is in the same boat, understandably.

Absolutely no one gave the Hurricanes a realistic chance of eliminating Ryan Day’s Ohio State, a team who showed minimal weaknesses this season. After all, their only loss came against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship and even then, the Buckeyes allowed a mere 13 points. But, Miami didn’t care, as they rolled into AT&T Stadium and beat OSU 24-14.

The Canes were outpaced in total yards, but they capitalized on their opportunities. Mario Cristobal’s team dominated the run game with 153 yards on the ground, led by Mark Fletcher Jr. Quarterback Carson Beck also completed 19 of 26 passes for 138 yards and one touchdown. Miami has beaten their last four SEC opponents, and this defense is as good as any, giving up just 13.1 PPG. They will need to be at their best against a versatile Ole Miss attack.

Ole Miss vs Miami Picks

I’ve loved how Ole Miss has been playing, but Miami just beat the reigning champions, and their defense is on an absolute tear. I’ll take the Canes on the moneyline.

Pick: Miami -182/TonyBet