Indianapolis Colts Week 1 Starting QB Odds: Predictions & Breakdown

The NFL keeps fans interested basically from August to April, but there are a few months there after the Draft finishes up in late April where there’s really nothing going on. Unless you’ve got a few teams with positional battles going on in training camp. Especially between quarterbacks.

While most eyes will be on the four-way showdown taking place in Cleveland, there’s an equally intriguing QB battle going on with the Indianapolis Colts. Incumbent Anthony Richardson will be looking to prove he’s not a bust as newcomer Daniel Jones attempts to grab his second chance in the NFL with both hands. Check out how NFL betting sites are handicapping this race and read on for our predictions and best bet!

Indianapolis Colts Week 1 Starting QB Odds: Predictions & Breakdown

All odds provided by Betway.

The Favorite: Anthony Richardson (-275)

Anthony Richardson cuts an imposing figure at 6’4” and 244 pounds. He certainly has the physical tools to be a star in the NFL. Richardson hasn’t yet mastered the mental aspect of the game, which is why he didn’t just miss time due to injury last season. He was also straight up benched for two games for 39-year-old Joe Flacco. Through 15 starts he has thrown more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (11) and has also done so at a higher rate (3.7 to 3.2) which is arguably even more worrying.

His 67.8 passer rating through his first 15 starts ranks eighth-worst since 2000, and not even his impressive 10 rushing TDs in that time can make up for such a low figure. Last year, he actually completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes. His 47.7 completion percentage is the third-worst since 2000 for a QB who threw at least 250 passes.

And he is surrounded on that list by first round busts like Ryan Leaf, Tim Tebow, Joey Harrington, and Akili Smith. Not a great omen for him. And neither was his team going out and signing a veteran to compete with him for the QB job. Not to mention drafting the CFP National Title finalist, Riley Leonard, in the sixth round.

Both head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard have clearly gotten a bit sick of Richardson. That’s why they benched him for Flacco and brought in Jones. And with both indicating an open competition where they will not enter “the process with any preconceived notions” according to Ballard, this thing seems to be anyone’s for the taking.

But if this is really an open race, we’re not sure why Richardson has such short odds considering his track record. If anything, we would have thought betting apps would be touting this as a pick ‘em between him and Jones. But considering the way the odds are, the pick is clear..

The Dark Horse: Daniel Jones (+220)

We’re not letting Daniel Jones totally off the hook, of course. He has actually had a very similar run to Richardson over the last two years, pairing poor play with a litany of injuries. However, the difference is that while Richardson has nothing but 13 college starts to draw on for experience prior to the 2023 season, Jones has four additional years of NFL experience there.

And he even had some real success in 2022. He led the league in INT rate (1.1), threw for over 3,000 yards, rushed for over 700, contributed 22 total TDs, and even won the Giants a playoff game.

Despite his awkward stature, Jones is very athletic and could easily slide right into a scheme designed around Richardson’s physical abilities. Steichen characterized Jones’ arrival in Indy as a fresh start.

And with the way that last season with the Giants went, with the added scrutiny of Hard Knocks and the Saquon debacle, it seems Jones was really suffering specifically because of the situation, not his own abilities. Shaking off that New York stench could be just what he needs to get back to 2022 Danny Dimes.

Richardson was only 6-7 as a starter in college, so he didn’t even really prove it there. And he hasn’t proven it in the NFL either. Meanwhile, Jones has had success in the league despite his recent bad stretch. If he can rediscover the form that saw him keep his INT rate below 2.0 for two straight years from 2021-2022, his +220 odds here are offering great value.