Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs had the most consistent quarterback play in the NFL for nearly a decade before 2025, when Patrick Mahomes finally picked up a major injury in the form of an ACL and LCL tear that ended his and K.C.’s season early.

A major injury like that means that Kansas City has some level of uncertainty under center for the first time since the mid-2010s. They picked up Justin Fields to be Mahomes’ backup in a trade early in free agency, but if Mahomes doesn’t return from his injury on time, Fields could turn out to be the Chiefs’ Week 1 starter.

With that day now just two and a half months away, we’re taking a look at the NFL betting odds on who will end up starting Week 1 for the Chiefs as they look to return to football relevance in 2026. Read on for our analysis and predictions!

Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

All betting odds provided by Betway.

The Favourite: Patrick Mahomes (-1,000)

Unlike most other teams that are offering betting odds for their Week 1 starting QB, there’s no debate here about who should start for Kansas City. It’s only a question of when Mahomes can return. Having suffered the injury late in the 2025 campaign, it’s not a sure thing he’ll be ready for Week 1 even though that’s what all the chatter around the team would suggest.

Mahomes is special, and apparently his body’s ability to recover from major knee surgery is just another feather in his cap. Because if he does return on time for K.C.’s Week 1 clash with the Denver Broncos on September 14, he will have returned nearly exactly nine months after undergoing surgery. That’s Adrian Peterson levels of recovery.

That’s the low-end of recovery, and the high-end could bring Mahomes back into the fold after the trade deadline in November.

Right now, it seems like more of a 50-50 proposition, and yet the oddsmakers have Mahomes listed at insane -1,000 odds. Mahomes is participating in 7-on-7 drills, but he hasn’t advanced to 11-on-11 and has not yet been cleared for contact either.They say he wants a preseason dress rehearsal if he’s going to be the Week 1 starter, and that just seems a lot sooner than Mahomes could be ready for full speed action. Preseason opponents playing for a spot on their own teams won’t be taking it easy on Mahomes because he’s trying to come back early.

The Underdog: Justin Fields (+500)

If Mahomes isn’t ready for Week 1, Justin Fields is going to be the one under center for the Chiefs. With Garrett Nussmeier and Chris Oladokun behind him, he shouldn’t lose his grip on the QB2 job before September, even if he was acquired for just a 2027 sixth-round pick.

Coming back after just nine months to make a point seems short-sighted from the Chiefs and Mahomes. We think he will come back some time in September, but Week 1 seems like a very best case scenario. And considering that, Fields at +500 is darn good value.