Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

One would think that when a team drafts a guy–and especially a QB–rated as the best player in the draft by pretty much everyone with a pulse, that guy is going to start right out of the gates. Well, if you’re Fernando Mendoza, who’s coming off a Heisman and undefeated National Championship season, think again.

A few weeks before they drafted Mendoza–which they always knew they were going to do–the Raiders had signed embattled veteran Kirk Cousins to a five-year, $172 million contract. We’ll tell you why that contract isn’t nearly what it seems below, but it still puts him in a great spot to win the starting job under center for 2026.

Aidan O’Connell and rookie Jacob Clark are also on the roster, but this battle will be between Cousins and Mendoza. If there is even a battle at all. Read on for the latest NFL betting odds on who will win the starting quarterback job for the Raiders when they play the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 on September 13.

Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

All betting odds provided by Betway.

The Favourite: Kirk Cousins (-340)

So, about that contract. He was released from a different massive contract by the Falcons, but thanks to language in that contract, they weren’t on the hook for as much as say, the Dolphins are for Tua Tagovailoa. Of the $152 million in Cousins’ new Raiders contract, only $20 million is guaranteed.

The Falcons will pay $8.7 million of that $20 million, while the Raiders will pay him a veteran minimum of $1.3 million plus a $10 million signing bonus. So they’re really not paying him like a franchise quarterback.

That being said, all signs point to Cousins suiting up and taking the first snap of the season for the Raiders come September 13. Almost everything seems to be working in the 37-year-old’s favour. Except, of course, the fact that he’s 37 years old playing NFL football.

But otherwise, he’s got the inside track. Cousins worked closely with Vegas’ new head coach Klint Kubiak during three years with the Minnesota Vikings from 2019-2021, when Kubiak was the QBs coach in 2019 and 2020 before moving up to offensive coordinator in 2021. Those kinds of relationships matter big time in a position battle. But that’s just the start.

The Underdog: Fernando Mendoza (+255)

It was always going to be an uphill battle for Mendoza to start right away after Cousins was signed. However, your competitor having a prior relationship with the boss really puts you at a disadvantage.

Not to mention that early returns during offseason activities have been poor for Mendoza in that it seemed like Cousins got all the first-team snaps and Mendoza worked with the rookies and third-stringers, according to ESPN’s Raiders beat writer Ryan McFadden.

The other thing that is also working against the former Indiana standout is that, as McFadden said, the Raiders brain trust from Kubiak up through GM John Spytek all the way to minority owner Tom Brady believe in the slower approach where even top drafted rookies sit behind veterans to start their career.

With Mendoza still trying to master how to take a snap from under center, something he did just a handful of times in college, it looks like it’ll take a Cousins injury to get the rook a Week 1 start. Cousins’ -340 odds don’t offer any juice at all, but we think that will be the winning ticket.