Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 7

Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL · Prime Video

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Two teams at 4-2 meet on a short week when the Chicago Bears host the New England Patriots at Soldier Field Thursday night, and the resumes behind those identical records look very different. The Bears have stayed afloat without starting QB Caleb Williams, who is back in this non-conference clash. Drake Maye has played well for the Pats, but the team is still led by a defense that ranks fifth in the league giving up an average of 18.8 ppg.

New England Patriots +2.5: +107

I'm backing the Patriots to cover this number. Three of Chicago's four wins came against teams now below .500 (Philadelphia, York Jets, Atlanta), with the fourth over a modest 3-2 Carolina. Their losses came facing the Vikings and resurgent Packers, who crushed them in the game before the last one. New England handed the Buffalo Bills their only loss of the season and are riding a three-game win streak. Maye has at least three TDs in each of the last three games and with him in form with a top-five defense the Pats are the pick to cover the spread.

Drake Maye Over 250 Passing Yards: -105

Maye has cleared 250 passing yards in two of his last three starts, averaging close to 293 yards a game over that stretch. He will be facing a middle-of-the pack Bears pass defense. He has been cooking and that is even without big off-season addition AJ Brown playing in three games. Maye will have another solid game in the air and pass for over 250 yards.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Chicago side

Williams is back under centre after a hamstring injury cost him two starts, throwing for 305 yards in his return, a 31-23 win over Atlanta. Chicago's offence ranks 12th in the league in scoring at 25 ppg and while the press has mostly focused on Williams returning, Chicago leads the league in rushing yards per game and a legit sixth in points allowed per game (19.8 ppg). D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monagai have combined for 724 rushing yards,with Swift with three TDs in the last two games, but Monagai has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. 

The New England side

Maye has been the Patriots' best player this season, his efficiency climbing as the season has gone on. New England is averaging 22.7 ppg while allowing 18.8 ppg, tighter marks than Chicago's own scoring pace suggests this will be a low-event game. Rhamondre Stevenson and Treyveon Henderson have combined for a steady rushing workload, giving Maye a run game behind a line that has kept him upright. New England's three-game winning streak, capped by a 26-19 win over the Jets, is the clearest form edge between these two 4-2 teams.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Patriots Moneyline	Patriots +3 Spread
-138	-112
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Stripping the vig from the Bears' -164 moneyline puts Chicago's win probability at 60%, but my own number sits closer to 52% New England, 48% Chicago. While the rosters are very different the Pats have won their two games facing the Bears in the Windy City. The de-vigged gap is wide enough that the market looks tied to Chicago's win total more than its performance.

I'm calling this one for New England, 24-20, with Maye's rising efficiency and New England's slightly stingier defence doing enough to get it done. That combined 44 points sits well under the 50.5 total on the board, true to how stout both defences have looked relative to their scoring output. A four-point Patriots win covers the +2.5-point spread and the 44 total points is well Under the posted number. While Chicago is a solid team and that is why we are taking the spread we are calling for New England to win, so the moneyline offers enticing odds.