New Orleans Saints Week 1 Starting QB Odds: Predictions & Breakdown
All odds provided by Betway.
| Player | May 20 Odds | Contract |
| Tyler Shough | -190 | Rookie Deal (2nd Round) |
| Spencer Rattler | +145 | Rookie Deal ($1 million Cap Hit) |
| Jake Haener | +3,500 | Rookie Deal ($1.1 million Cap Hit) |
The Favorite: Tyler Shough (-190)
With veteran Derek Carr’s recent retirement announcement, some might have thought that meant the Saints would roll out the red carpet for their second-round pick, Tyler Shough, to get the starting job. Not so fast. Head coach Kellen Moore has indicated that it will be an open competition between Shough, 2024 fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler, and 2023 fourth-rounder Jake Haener.
Shough’s advantage is also kind of his weakness: he has less experience than his competitors. However, as we’ll cover in a second, the experience Rattler and Haner have had is not exactly ideal. And it’s not like experience should really be an issue for Shough either. He’s actually older than Rattler and just six months younger than Haener.
He also started for three different schools during his lengthy college stay. That means that he has experience adapting to new schemes and playbooks quickly. And it seems he’s already doing that, as early reports from rookie minicamp are that he’s already “looking the part” of a QB1.
The main issues for Shough in his pre-draft evaluation were his injury history and his age. Not many teams want to build around a 25-year-old rookie with a couple of season-ending injuries on their resume. However, based on his pedigree, Shough is the most talented of the three guys competing for this job.
Both Rattler and Haener did not perform well when given the chance last year, so what would make New Orleans think they’d do better now? At -190 odds, betting apps are still offering some value on Shough, so we would grab that now before his odds likely shorten in the coming weeks.
The Dark Horse: Spencer Rattler (+145)
We usually prefer to roll with the underdog in these scenarios, but considering Spencer Rattler is offering just +145 odds juice here, it’s not worth the squeeze. Maybe if he was in the +250 to +300 range, the value might make the risk worth it, but not as it stands here.
As we mentioned, both Rattler and Haener got extended chances to prove themselves last year, to no avail. Haener got just one start and is likely only being included in the competition by Moore so that he doesn’t feel left out. He looks destined for a career holding a clipboard on the sideline.
The Saints obviously liked Rattler’s potential more, because while Haener got one start, Rattler got a half dozen. And he lost all six of them—by an average of 20.3 points. He threw interceptions at a higher rate than TDs and completed less than 60 percent of his passes.
He may have hit the links with Patrick Mahomes this spring, but unless he had that magical ball from Space Jam, we don’t see him improving enough on that rookie campaign. Guys don’t usually get a second chance after such an ugly showing, so we reckon that the Saints will go the safer route and take the older and wiser rookie Shough.
