Team To Have the Best Record in the NFL in 2025: Odds Analysis & Prediction
All odds provided by Betway.
Best Regular Season Record Odds
The Buffalo Bills make sense as the favorites for this betting market. They have won 11 or 13 games in each of the last five years, including a 13-4 mark a year ago. They have consistently gotten to beat up on the weak AFC East, which they play six times every year. Josh Allen is 24-6 against those three teams since 2020.
And while the Jets and Patriots seem likely to improve, they’re not listed on the top 12 in this market for a reason. They’re still a year or two away. The other reason is that the Bills are the only ones among the top five favorites for this market that are also in the top 10 for easiest strength of schedule, at .467.
However, their +450 odds are not offering much in the way of value, especially three months out. The Chiefs, at +550, aren’t offering a ton more value, but we think they might have extra motivation this year. They get to play the AFC South, but we believe their embarrassing loss in Super Bowl 59 last year will also change the way they look at the regular season.
Over the last few years, the Chiefs have treated the regular season a little like LeBron James when he was in Cleveland the second time. As long as we get in, we’ll get to the end. But after that 40-22 beatdown in the Super Bowl, we think the Chiefs will want to push for more dominant showings in the fall.
However, the defending champion Eagles are offering even more value at +750. The Tush Push will remain for one more season, and they didn’t lose much from their deep Super Bowl roster last year. They may have lost their offensive coordinator, but the new one was basically his right hand man last year, and Vic Fangio returns on D. They do have the fourth-toughest strength of schedule, but this is still the best roster in football.
We like the Eagles and Chiefs some, but our real value pick is the San Francisco 49ers, who are offering nearly double the value Philly is on most betting apps, at +1,400 odds. The 49ers finished 6-11 last year, last in the NFC West. But a lot of that had to do with one of the most unlucky injury seasons in recent memory. That also means they get a last place schedule this year.
That means that guys that missed time or played through major injuries last year—like Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Trent Williams, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and nearly all of their backups and their backups—will get a really fresh start in 2025.
They have the easiest strength of schedule based on 2024 records (.415) but also based on projected 2025 records. Their schedule really is laughable, and now that they're healthy, they could go on a crazy run.
They play their NFC West-mates, which includes two suspect teams in the Seahawks and Cardinals and one tough one in the Rams. They also play the AFC and NFC South, by far the two worst divisions in football. Then, their random games against one team from each conference are against the Browns and Giants, who have the shortest odds to have the worst record in football next year. Purdy and the boys could surprise some people.
