Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Atlanta is 0-2 at home this season while Chicago has gone 1-1 on the road, a split that cuts against the raw numbers both offences are putting up. The Falcons and Bears have each scored 119 points through five games, but Chicago's defence has been the better of the two, holding opponents to 19.2 points a game against Atlanta's 24.4 allowed. That gap, more than the moneyline, is where this line comes from.

Chicago Bears -1.5: -108

I'm backing the Bears to win this one outright. Atlanta and Chicago have each scored 119 points through five games, but the Bears have allowed only 96 compared to the Falcons' 122, the clearest edge in this matchup. Atlanta is also winless at home this season, with losses to Carolina and Baltimore, a trend that cuts directly against backing the away side. Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr both practiced fully this week but while Penix Jr. will go Williams is still listed as questionable. However, the Bears are hungry after getting mauled last week and will bounce back this week.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Atlanta side

Atlanta is 2-3 and is coming off a 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore. The Falcons are averaging 23.8 ppg and 361.8 yards a game, but a defence allowing 328.6 yards and 24.4 ppg has not held up. Penix Jr. was a full practice participant this week and carries no designation despite being banged up late in the last game, and Atlanta's turnover differential of -5 is the shakiest number on either side of this matchup.

The Chicago side

Chicago is 3-2 after a 31-7 loss at Green Bay in its most recent game. The Bears are allowing just 19.2 ppg and 311.4 yards a game, both better marks than Atlanta's defence, and Chicago already has 12 sacks against only 11 allowed, an edge that should travel against a Falcons line that has also given up 11 sacks this season. I think Williams will go and Chicago's 1-1 road record this year says less about this matchup than the 0-2 mark Atlanta is carrying at home.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Chicago Bears Spread -1.5	Chicago Bears Moneyline
-108	-120
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bet365's moneyline odds of -120 on the Bears and -102 on the Falcons de-vig to a 52% implied probability for Chicago against 48% for Atlanta. I have Chicago a little higher, at 55%, because the market's number doesn't fully separate two teams both averaging 23.8 ppg, and the real gap here is on defence: Chicago is allowing five fewer points a game than Atlanta, and a big reason I am backing them to win and cover. 

I'm backing Chicago to win a tight one on the road, 27-24. Atlanta's offensive line has allowed 11 sacks this season, and a Bears pass rush already at 12 sacks should turn a couple into stalled drives. I think Caleb Williams finishes at least two scoring drives in the fourth quarter, and Chicago's defence is the better unit here. Atlanta keeps it inside a field goal at home, but the Falcons' defensive numbers catch up with them by the final whistle. The score lands just under the 51.5 total in what will be an exciting and close NFC affair.