Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 6

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET · Wembley Stadium, London · NFL Network

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Jacksonville is making its second trip to London in a week, having edged Philadelphia 19-17 at Tottenham last Sunday before switching stadiums for this AFC South battle at Wembley. The Jaguars have outscored opponents by 53 points through five games and at 4-1 they are atop the AFC South as the only team in the division with a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars Spread: -2.5 (-114)

I'm backing the Jaguars to cover -2.5 in London. Jacksonville's defence has allowed just 14 ppg this season, second in the NFL, well ahead of a Texans offence averaging 22 ppg, which is 19th in the league, a wider gap than the 2.5 points Bet365 is laying here. Houston's only win this season leaned entirely on defence, not offence. I don't expect CJ Stroud to produce enough points to keep this one inside a field goal, and a Jacksonville pass rush that's been getting after the QB all season should make that job harder. I like the Jaguars to cover across the pond this Sunday.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Surging side

Trevor Lawrence has started all five games for a Jax offence averaging 24.6 points, with wins over Cleveland, New England, Cincinnati and Philadelphia sandwiched around a 20-13 road loss at Denver. Josh Hines-Allen leads a pass rush that has been Jacksonville's most consistent defensive weapon all season, and that pressure is the matchup edge I'm leaning on most. That loss at Denver came against a solid opponent, not a letdown, so it does little to dent the case for Jaguars’ defence holding up again. 

The Struggling side

Houston is 1-4, with losses to Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Dallas and a 26-3 defensive win over winless Tennessee  in their last game. C.J. Stroud has completed 64.3% of his passes for 1,402 yards and 6 touchdowns without an interception, numbers that have not turned into points, with Houston averaging 22 ppg against 22.4 ppg allowed. Running back David Montgomery is doubtful after sitting out Thursday's practice, and tackle Trent Brown did not practice either and is questionable, possibly leaving a thinner offensive front against Jacksonville's pass rush.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Jaguars Spread -2.5	Over 42.5 points
-114	-111
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at the time of writing and subject to change.

I think the market is overweighting Houston's Week 5 result here. Beating Tennessee by 23 points is real, but the Titans are one of the league's lowest-scoring teams, and Houston still has fewer points scored than allowed this season. That gap is why I land a few points higher on Jacksonville than the market's 2.5 spread suggests.

Jacksonville controls this game from the opening series. Lawrence protects the ball against a defence that forces turnovers but still gives up too many points. The Jaguars’ pass rush is solid and may be too much for the Texans to handle. Houston stays competitive into the second half behind Stroud's efficient underneath passing. Without push on early downs, though, the Texans settle for field goals instead of finishing drives in the Red Zone. Jaguars 27, Texans 17 easily clears the 2.5-point spread and lands over the 42.5 total.