Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Monday, October 12, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA · ABC/ESPN

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Buffalo brings the NFL's highest-scoring offence into SoFi Stadium off a 29-26 loss to New England that exposed its leaky defence. The Rams sit 2-2 but could get healthier up front this week with Aaron Donald coming back, and oddsmakers have set this among the highest totals on this week's NFL picks board.

Over 54.5: -110

I'm backing the Over 54.5 in La La Land on Monday night. The Rams counters the Bills’ attack with the better defence of these two sides, and its own passing offence ranks 2nd in the league in passing yards per game and they have put up at least 24 points in each of the last three games. Neither defence has been efficient enough to keep the other side off the board. These two met two years ago and combined for 86 points, and I expect this total to get tested again.

Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -185

Kyren Williams has scored in three of the Rams' four games this year, carrying 54 times for 294 yards as the lead back. I like him to find the end zone again against a Buffalo defence that ranks 25th in points allowed and 19th in rushing defnece.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Los Angeles side

Los Angeles is 2-2, sandwiching two wins around a lopsided 27-7 loss to San Francisco and a four-point loss at Denver. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 317 or more yards in three of four starts, including 390 against Denver, and the Rams' passing offence ranks 2nd in the league in yardage despite a 21.3 scoring average that sits 19th. Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson will both play Monday after missing the Eagles win in the last game, while Terrance Ferguson landed on injured reserve with an ankle injury. 

The Buffalo side

Buffalo is 3-1 and still averaging a league-best 31.8 points a game, but the Patriots loss exposed cracks: the Bills ran only 59 plays to New England's 76 as their points per drive fell from 3.67 in the first two weeks to 2.27 over the last two. Josh Allen has not played like the MVP many thought he would be this season and in the last two games has one TD and three picks. WR DJ Moore is working through a second shoulder injury and is questionable to face the Rams. Buffalo's defence has allowed 26.8 points a game, 25th in the league, and leads the NFL in defensive holding penalties, a discipline problem against a Rams offence built on the pass.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Rams Spread -3	Over 54.5
-111	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Rams moneyline odds of -169 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 60% for the Rams against 40% for the Bills. My own number sits close to that, around 61%, so I see this market as largely efficient rather than hiding a clear gap.Even with Myles Garett still out the defence gets Donald back and that and the Buffalo defense are why I am backing Buffalo. The Bills issue isn't scoring, it's stopping anyone else from doing the same at a high clip, which they did in losing their last game giving up 29 points. 

I'm calling this one for the Rams, 31-27, a combined 58 points that clears Monday's 54.5 total. Kyren Williams scores again, Stafford keeps finding Davante Adams and Puka Nacua down the field, and Los Angeles' improving defence forces just enough to survive Josh Allen's big plays. Buffalo's offence is too good to shut down completely, which is exactly why I don't see this one staying under the total.