NFL Week 5 Early 1PM Slate Betting Picks, Odds, & Best Bets

We had another subpar mark in Week 4 as we went 3-4 on our 1pm best bets. This time, we’re blaming Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield for not getting it done. That Commanders pick was just a bone-headed move so we’ll take that one on the chin.

However, we remain in the black on the season overall, and we’ll look to bounce back with a positive card here in Week 5. With just six games on the early afternoon docket thanks to another London game and the first round of bye weeks for the 2025 season, we have less to consider so we can focus better on the task at hand. Check out our best bets for this Sunday.

2025 1PM Slate Best Bet Record: 20-13 (+0.95)

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

NFL Week 4 Early Sunday 1PM Betting Picks & Odds - September 28

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens - 1PM

The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson in this game, but the more important absences for our purposes are on the defense. Baltimore is missing several starters on the defensive line, and they have already allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most to RBs specifically. Rookie Woody Marks has clearly overtaken this backfield from Nick Chubb, and the Ravens have allowed three opposing RBs to go for 60+ this season.

Best Bet: Woody Marks Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints - 1PM

How the Giants are underdogs to the winless Saints is beyond us. It’s a line from betting apps that is so strange it makes us want to steer clear here. Instead, we’ll go with the other trend that’s gone 4/4 for the Saints this season: allowing 20+ points. Jaxson Dart’s offense didn’t look great, but the Saints 121 points through four weeks, so him and Cam Skattebo should be able to get us there.

Best Bet: New York Giants Over 20.5 Total Points (-110)

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers - 1PM

Which of these two teams we should trust on the moneyline is too much of a conundrum for us to deal with this week. So we looked elsewhere for value and found that Miami and Carolina are giving up the fourth (5.1) and fifth (4.9) most yards per carry this year. They are also tied for the seventh-most rushing yards allowed to RBs this year. We’ll try a rare double best bet on this one.

Best Bet: Rico Dowdle + De’Von Achane Rush For 50+ Yards (+111)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts - 1PM

The Raiders have seemed like frisky underdogs this year, but we’re also very high on this Colts team as well. Especially their offense. Each of Indy’s last three games have gone over 45 points, and ditto for each of the last two Raiders games.

Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Points Over 44.5 (-178)

Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles - 1PM

Jalen Hurts didn’t score a TD last week, and that means he’s pretty close to guaranteed to score one in Week 5. He has not scored in a regular season game 13 times since 2022, and of those 13 instances, he scored a TD in the following games 10 times. They used their little tush push wrinkles last week, but they’ll be back to regularly scheduled programming against the Broncos.

Best Bet: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-150)

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets - 1PM

This is a matchup between the second-worst and fifth-worst scoring defenses in the NFL this season. The Jets have allowed 27+ points to every opponent this season, and Dallas has allowed 30+ in each of their last three outings. The over is an easy call here.

Best Bet: Game Total Points Over 47.5 (-110)