NFL Week 5 MNF Jaguars vs. Chiefs: NFL Betting Odds & Picks

We had a lovely evening during the final Monday Night football doubleheader for some time, hitting all three of our picks by a mile. It feels good not to have to sweat it. But we do it all over again here in Week 5, with the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) hosting the surging Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Everbank Stadium in Duval County.

We’ve got you covered with everything you need for smart NFL betting on this MNF matchup. The Chiefs come in as road favorites, and we’ll break down whether that spells doom for them or a third straight win for the reigning AFC champions. Check out our predictions for the spread, the over/under, and our best bet among the dozens of player props.

2025 MNF Best Bets Record: 8-5 (+0.57)

NFL Week 5 MNF Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds & Picks - Oct. 6

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Point Spread/Moneyline Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs are starting to look like their old selves over the last couple of weeks. They grinded out an ugly one over the Giants in Week 3 and pummeled the Ravens into submission at home last week. And when Patrick Mahomes and K.C. get hot, they usually stay hot: since 2018, when the Chiefs get the chance to turn a two-game win streak to a three-gamer, they are 12-3.

Jacksonville has been one of the biggest surprises at 3-1 to start the year. But they’ve been winning some jammy games where they take advantage of a lot of turnovers and mistakes from the opposition. They have 13 takeaways this year, which is three more than the next best team. The Chiefs don’t do that.

Kansas City has just one turnover this season, tied for fewest in the NFL. Their 140 turnovers since Mahomes took over in 2018 are the fifth-fewest in football. K.C. has also been a great road favorite over the last two seasons, going 5-2 against the spread in those spots. The Chiefs are hot, and their moneyline is below our -200 threshold on most Canadian sportsbooks. Lock it in.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-190)

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Over/Under Prediction

Since the start of the 2024 season, the Jaguars have had nine home games, and in six of those, the game’s final score went under the betting total. Both of their games at Everbank this season have gone under 40 points. K.C.’s first three games remained under 50 as well. We have two middle of the pack offenses going against two top five scoring defenses. We’ll buy up a few points and go under on this one.

Prediction: Alternative Game Total Points Under 48.5 (-174)

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Best Bet

The Chiefs are top seven in scoring defense and top 12 in overall defense. So they’re solid. But they do have some weak spots. The 4.9 yards per carry they’ve been allowing on the ground is tied for fifth-most in the NFL.

They’ve also allowed three of four opposing QBs to hit their over on the ground. Lamar Jackson did it in just a half. Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert, not particularly known for their wheels in 2025, also found holes when they chose to scramble. Trevor Lawrence has 15 carries on the season, which is a lot, but only for 32 yards. He has had games of 7, 9, 4, and 12. We think he might go for a season-high on MNF.

We also like Lawrence’s backfield-mate, Travis Etienne, who has really found his groove this season. He’s scored in three straight games, and the Chiefs have allowed an opposing RB to score a touchdown in three straight games.

Best Bets

• Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown (+130)
• Trevor Lawrence 10+ Rush Yards (-130)