NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football Doubleheader Betting Odds & Picks - Oct. 13
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons Best Bets & Player Props
There is something about playing NFC teams that just gets elite AFC QBs riled up. Lamar Jackson has a legendary record against the other conference, and his rival, Josh Allen, is no different. He is 20-5 straight up against NFC opponents since 2020 (and 5-1 over the last two seasons), and he’s specifically 8-4 when those games are on the road.
The Bills are also coming off a loss to the Patriots in prime time last week, their first defeat of the season. Allen is an elite player, and the Bills are a top team, which means they generally respond better than others after they lose a game. Since 2020, Allen’s Bills have gone 16-5 straight up following a loss, and they have lost back-to-back games just thrice since 2022.
We expect Buffalo to try to ride the running game with James Cook and a little sprinkling of Allen, as the Falcons are currently fielding the No. 1 unit in the league when it comes to pass defense. On the other side of the ball, the Bills have not been great, and we believe Michael Penix Jr. and company will be able to find some joy at home on Monday night.
Specifically, the Bills have allowed 211 rushing yards to quarterbacks through five weeks. That’s the most in football, and apart from Drake Maye last week, all four of the other QBs they’ve faced have hit the over on their rushing prop. That includes season-highs for Lamar Jackson in Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa in Week 3, and Spencer Rattler in Week 4.
Penix Jr. is not a big dual-threat guy, but he has run the ball 13 times over four games. He’s also topped this 7.5 number on two occasions, running for nine in Week 3 and 21 in Week 1. We like the over here.
Best Bet:
- Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-205)
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 7.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders Best Bets & Player Props
All signs point to a comfortable win for the Commanders here as home favorites against the Bears. Washington is 12-6 straight up against NFC opponents since Jayden Daniels took over, and the Bears have gone just 4-11 in the same time frame with Caleb Williams at the controls.
Daniels has been really good as a favorite as well, with his Commanders going 8-2 as a home favorite since he was drafted. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams and company have gone 3-6-1 ATS as the road dog since the start of the 2024 campaign. On top of that, Williams has surprisingly not responded well to the limelight. The No. 1 overall pick in 2024 has gone 0-4 in evening games so far in his career.
Daniels also won the first battle between the top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft last year when both were rookies: the infamous Hail Maryland game that kicked off Chicago’s 10-game winning streak. The Commanders will win much more comfortably this time around. We don’t love this vegas zone spread we’re getting from sportsbooks, but we’ll take it with no changes considering all of these trends.
Best Bets:
- Washington Commanders -5.5 Point Spread (-110)
