Olympics Men’s Hockey Final: Canada vs USA Odds, Analysis, & Picks

The Gold Medal Game of the 2026 Winter Olympics will be a rematch of the 4 Nations Face Off Final last year as Team Canada goes to battle with Team USA in Milan. The puck drop is scheduled for 8:10 a.m. ET. The Canadians had to overcome a 2-0 deficit against Finland in the semifinals, ultimately winning 3-2 in the dying seconds of regulation. The Americans, meanwhile, cruised in their semi, hammering Slovakia by a score of 6-2. Read below for the Canada vs USA picks.

Odds courtesy of TonyBet.

Canada vs USA Odds

Canada is a -129 moneyline favorite at hockey betting sportsbooks. The US returns at +100 odds. The O/U is set at five goals.

The Canadians have won 15 of 19 matchups all-time in the Olympics against the United States. However, the Americans did beat Canada in the group stages of the 4 Nations early last year before falling in the final.

Canada vs USA Analysis

As everyone expected, Canada will play for the gold medal, but it wasn’t exactly an easy road to get here. After cruising through the preliminary rounds, they’ve looked shaky at times in the knockout stages. Czechia gave them a real scare in the quarters, and Finland’s 2-0 lead by the mid-way mark of the second period had Canadians everywhere holding their breath. It truly looked like the tournament favorite was about to meet its maker before coming alive.

Sam Reinhart cut the Finns’ lead in half late in the second period before Shea Theodore scored the tying goal with under 10 minutes left in the third period. That set the stage for Nathan MacKinnon, who beat Finnish netminder Juuse Saros blocker side with under a minute remaining in regulation, ultimately sending Canada through to the final. Despite the scoreline, Jon Cooper’s squad did outplay Finland. They outshot them 39-17. Saros was just absolutely brilliant in goal. Sidney Crosby missed the semis due to a lower-body injury, but there’s hope he can return for the Gold Medal Game.

The Americans definitely have revenge on their minds after losing in OT in Boston in the 4 Nations Final last February to Canada, and they will have that opportunity to redeem themselves on Sunday in Milan. The US has looked very dominant in this tournament, aside from a nail-biter 2-1 victory over a stacked Team Sweden in the quarterfinals. Slovakia’s Cinderella run seemingly posed no threat to the States in the semis as the Americans dominated them from the jump.

Team USA was up 5-0 by the end of the second period and they scored another in the third. While the Slovaks got two back, it was too little too late. Jack Hughes led the way with a pair of goals, while Brady Tkachuk, Jack Eichel, Dylan Larkin, and Tage Thompson all found the back of the net as well. The Americans are definitely rolling, but Canada will be arguably their toughest test yet. Needless to say, there’s certainly no shortage of motivation to show up and deliver the goods on Sunday.

Canada vs USA Picks

When these two clash, it’s always a classic. After all, this is the best rivalry in international hockey. I expect it to be an entertaining affair, and with so many superstars, I’m predicting goals. Hammer the Over.

Pick: Over 5 goals (-139)/TonyBet