Olympics Men’s Hockey Semifinals: Canada vs Finland Odds, Analysis, & Picks

A spot in the Gold Medal Game at the 2026 Olympics is on the line Friday as Team Canada faces Finland in the semifinals of the men’s hockey tournament. The puck drop is scheduled for 10:40 a.m. ET. The Canadians were dealt a serious scare in the quarters against Czechia, but they ultimately prevailed in overtime. The Finns also had it tough in the quarterfinals, just barely beating Switzerland in comeback fashion – also in OT. Read on for the Canada vs Finland picks.

Odds courtesy of TonyBet.

Canada vs Finland Odds

Team Canada is a heavy -400 moneyline favorite at hockey betting sportsbooks. Finland, who are the defending Olympic champions, return at +320 odds. That gives them a mere 20% chance of advancing to the final.

Canada vs Finland Analysis

Team Canada went into this tournament as the favorite to win gold, and they remain on track to live up to expectations. Jon Cooper’s squad cruised through the group stages, hammering Czechia, Switzerland, and France. However, the quarterfinals weren’t easy, and they trailed for the first time since the 2010 Olympics as the Czechs gave them a serious run for their money.

Canada opened the scoring thanks to 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini, who became the youngest player ever to score in an elimination game. Czechia responded with a pair of goals to take a 2-1 lead before Nathan MacKinnon tied things up at two. The Czechs then took the lead again, but Nick Suzuki rescued Canada in the dying minutes of the third to force OT, where Mitch Marner won it with a filthy backhand. Sidney Crosby did suffer an injury in the quarterfinals, though, and it remains to be seen if he’ll suit up Friday. Cooper said he has a chance, but nothing is guaranteed.

Finland’s roster may be top-heavy, but they’re experienced and also very talented. The Finns dropped their opener to Slovakia, but proceeded to win three in a row after that, beating Sweden, Italy, and Switzerland. They outscored the Swedes and Italians 15-1, but the Swiss weren’t an easy out.

They took a 2-0 lead into the third period before NHL stars Sebastian Aho and Miro Heiskanen came through for Finland, both scoring. Arrturi Lehkonen then netted the winner in overtime to keep the Finns’ medal hopes alive. However, they’ve only won once in their last four meetings with Canada, and Finland lost 5-3 in last year’s 4 Nations Face Off to the eventual winners. This will be an extremely difficult game, but Czechia’s ability to keep things competitive will give the Finns some hope.

Canada vs Finland Picks

Finland is no pushover, and Canada will need to bring their best. While I do think they will prevail, I’m expecting another close contest – with or without Crosby. I’ll take the Finns to cover the puck line, ultimately losing by one goal.

Pick: Finland +1.5 (+116)/TonyBet