Olympics Men’s Hockey Semifinals: USA vs Slovakia Odds, Analysis, & Picks

Quinn Allen
By: Quinn Allen
NHL Picks
Photo courtesy of Pavel Marianov (Flickr), CC by 2.0

Photo courtesy of Pavel Marianov (Flickr), CC by 2.0

Team USA and Slovakia will clash on Friday, February 20, in the 2026 Olympic men’s hockey semifinals, with a berth in the Gold Medal Game at stake. The puck drop is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. The Americans had a tough contest in the quarterfinals, needing a Quinn Hughes overtime winner to beat a stacked Team Sweden. The Slovaks, meanwhile, cruised past Leon Draisaitl and Team Germany by a score of 6-2. Read below for the USA vs Slovakia picks.

Highlights

  • USA and Slovakia face off in the Olympic semifinals on Friday
  • The Americans are a massive favorite to move on
  • Keep reading for the odds, preview, and picks

Odds courtesy of TonyBet.

USA vs Slovakia Odds

By no surprise, Team USA is a huge -834 moneyline favorite at hockey betting sportsbooks. Slovakia returns as a +500 underdog. The O/U is set at six goals.

The Slovaks have actually won three of the last five meetings with the Americans, but as we know, NHL stars weren’t involved in any of those matchups.

USA vs Slovakia Analysis

The Americans will always be in Canada’s shadow to a certain extent, but that gap has closed in recent years, and a gold in this tournament would make a serious statement. Team USA beat the Canadians in the 4 Nations group stages last year, but lost to them in the final. The Olympics are a chance at potential redemption, but first, they must get past Slovakia, a team that has looked very solid in Milan. The States haven’t lost in the Olympics, but their toughest task was definitely in the quarters against Sweden.

Sweden has always been an international powerhouse, and they didn’t go down without a fight in the quarterfinals. Dylan Larkin opened the scoring in the second period for Team USA, but the Swedes equalized late in the third period thanks to New York Rangers star Mika Zibanejad. That set the stage for Hughes to play hero in OT, though, ringing a wrist shot off the post and into the net to send the US through to the semifinals. While Slovakia may not be as talented an opponent as Sweden, the States also can’t take them for granted, either.

Slovakia has definitely surprised many people at these Olympics. While they’ve always been a competitive nation in international men’s hockey, no one could’ve predicted the Slovaks would be one of the last four teams standing in Milan. Slovakia made a statement in their opening game with a big win over Finland before beating Italy as well. A loss to Sweden in their final group stage contest wasn’t ideal, but they bounced back against Germany on Wednesday.

The Slovaks took a 4-1 lead into the third period, and they added two more, with the final score ending 6-2. Montreal Canadiens star Juraj Slafkovsky was dealt an injury scare, which meant others had to step up. In fact, he only had one point in the quarters, with five different Slovakia players finding the back of the net. Pavol Regenda led the way with two goals. Beating the USA would truly be a miracle for Slovakia, but anything is possible when you have the momentum this team does right now.

USA vs Slovakia Picks

Slovakia has been a great story at the Olympics, but we saw what happened when they faced a team like Sweden. They allowed five goals and lost by two. One could argue that the US are even a level up in competition from the Swedes. I’ll take the Americans to walk out with a convincing victory.

Pick: USA -2.5 (-129)/TonyBet

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Quinn Allen is a sports writer from Vancouver, Canada. His expertise spans across many sports, but he tends to write mostly European soccer betting previews for BettingTop10 Canada. He’s been in the industry for seven years. Quinn loves to be active in his free time, whether it’s working out, walking, or playing soccer.