Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship Betting Odds, Spread, & O/U Picks

It has been 15 years since there was an AFC Championship Game without the Chiefs or Patriots. And with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs faltering this year, that curse was supposed to be broken. But Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have decided to carry the torch. And the young QB-HC duo has a great chance of making it all the way to the franchise’s first post-Brady Super Bowl here as well.

The Denver Broncos are at home, but their star QB Bo Nix is out with a broken ankle. Can New England take advantage, or can Denver’s unheralded backup QB pull off one of the great NFL playoff upsets? Read on for the top NFL betting odds as well as our spread and over/under picks for the AFC Championship!

AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos - Sunday, Jan. 25 at 3PM (CBS)

All odds provided by Betway

Patriots vs. Broncos Spread/Moneyline Prediction

The New England Patriots were supposed to go through a lengthy and cumbersome rebuilding process after losing arguably the greatest QB and HC of all-time within the span of a few years. But apparently, all it took was a couple of seasons, a shrewd draft pick, and one more head coach firing. Because here they are back in the AFC Championship for the first time since 2018. And they really should win it too.

But will they? That’s the question.

Because with Denver trotting out inexperienced backup Jarrett Stidham in the biggest moment of the season, it’s kind of like all the pressure is on second-year QB Drake Maye and his Patriots. The Broncos are at home, and yet they’re playing with house money.

Sean Payton is an absolute football maniac and you know he’s been studying and scheming around Stidham since the second he found out about Nix’s tragic injury.

Denver didn’t get JK Dobbins back like some thought they might, but if they can run the ball and get the play action going to Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims down the field, we think the Broncos defense can really cause problems for Maye after what we saw in that Texans game last week.

We believe Payton will find a way. And while we will be betting on the Broncos straight up, if we’re going to give you a best bet here, the safest thing we can think of is laying a touchdown.

Best Bet: Denver Broncos Alternative +7.5 Point Spread (-225)

Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under Prediction

Both of these defenses are elite, and that’s why this total is so low. But that’s also why both of these teams have consistently gone over the game total in recent weeks. The Patriots have gone over in six of seven and 10 of 13, while the Broncos have done the same in five of their last seven. We’ll buy a few points here, but the over feels like the play considering the potential for insanity in this game.

Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Points Over 39.5 (-185)