Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 7 NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Odds - May 4
All odds provided by Betway.
Rockets vs. Warriors Moneyline/Point Spread Pick
The Warriors certainly looked their age down the stretch of Game 6. They looked fatigued and unable to match the energy and vim of the youthful Rockets as the visitors went on a 14-3 run to seal it in the fourth quarter. It’s starting to feel like they had to finish this team back in Game 5.
It also doesn’t help that Steph Curry’s right thumb injury is clearly hindering him. He has shot under 50 percent in four of the last five games. They kept him in for 42 minutes on Friday night though, and Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green played similar minutes. Green is nothing but a defensive stopper and instigator at this point, and Butler struggled from the field for the second game in a row.
The big thing is that the Warriors can’t handle Houston’s size. Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams both had three offensive rebounds, they outscored the Warriors 42-32 in the paint, and 19-12 in second chance points. The hack-a-Steven Adams strategy hasn’t been paying dividends for Steve Kerr, and it’s honestly getting kind of embarrassing. All you need is a strong seven-footer to throw Golden State off their game.
Of the 31 times a team has come back from a 3-1 series deficit, 13 have won. However, since 2000, the team making the comeback is 7-6 in the Game 7. They also have home court advantage too.
Houston is 2-1 at home in the playoffs, with wins in the last two straight. They were also 29-12 at home during the regular season, fifth-best in the NBA. When a series goes the way it has gone in this one since the NBA adopted the 2-2-1-1-1 series format, the home team is 4-2 in Game 7. Home teams in general are also 112-39 in Game 7s all-time. We’re taking the youngsters straight up.
Pick: Houston Rockets Moneyline (-140)
Rockets vs. Warriors Player Prop Best Bet
We really wanted to go with Fred VanVleet here, but the three-point shot can just be too volatile, and he really relies on that. Instead we found better value in a more consistent kind of scorer in Amen Thompson. He’s all about paint points, and there’s more reliability there—especially for Thompson.
Because he plays inside, Thompson generally scores pretty efficiently. In fact, since he entered the starting lineup permanently in January, he has only shot under 40 percent just six times. In one of those, he was injured for the next game. But in the other five, he scored 19, 25, 17, 21, and 17 in the next contest for an average of 19.8 points per game.
He shot 31 percent in Game 3 of this series and came back with 17 points on 7-for-12 from the field in Game 4. Thompson went 39 percent from the field last game, so he seems to be due a big bounce back at home in Game 7. It’s also worth noting he averaged 16.0 points per game as a starter this year, so his 14.5 number offering +105 odds was a no-brainer.
Best Bet: Amen Thompson Over 14.5 Points (+105)/Betway
