Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Play-In Game - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Kings vs. Mavericks Point Spread/Moneyline Prediction
These teams have played twice since the Luka Doncic trade that rocked the world of every Mavericks fan. The Kings have won both. They are one of the few teams that can still match Dallas’ size even after acquiring Anthony Davis. Jonas Valanciunas and Domantas Sabonis are a pretty darn solid duo down low, even if they’re not elite defensively. The last matchup between these two teams, on March 3, was actually the game where Kyrie Irving went down for the year. Sacramento won by 24.
The Mavs have been floundering ever since, going 7-15 straight up and against the spread since the start of March. They also haven’t beaten a team in the top 10 in the West in nine tries, with their last such win coming pre-All Star break against the Warriors.
Frankly, Dallas has really struggled with the entire Western Conference since the ASB, with just two wins (New Orleans and San Antonio) over conference opponents during that time. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 19-12 straight up as the home favorite this year and comes in having won four of six. We like the Kings, but we’re not getting ahead of ourselves here. Sportsbooks were nice enough to leave the Sacramento moneyline under -200, so we will oblige.
Best Bet: Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-190)
Kings vs. Mavericks Over/Under Prediction
For the over/under, we’re looking at the over considering how low this number is. Neither team has been hitting a crazy amount of unders, and both of these teams have seen just three totals apiece under 220 since the start of March. It feels like there’s value here. Dallas has the second-highest over hit rate when they are road dogs at a solid 69 percent.
Nine of the last 11 games where the Mavericks had a total under 225, the over cashed. When the number is low, the Mavs score big. Four of the last five games the Kings have had with a total of 220 or less (they’ve had only seven such games all year, which also points to the over here) have gone over as well. We’re rolling with the trends on this one. And we’re not even going to buy a point up either.
Best Bet: Game Total Points Over 215.5 (-110)
Player Prop Best Bet
We stumbled upon some crazy value in this game on Jonas Valanciunas. Now, he doesn’t always play a ton, so his props can be risky. However, the Mavericks employ more than a few guys that are 7 feet or 7-foot adjacent.
He’s going to see the floor. He’s averaged just 8.7 points and 4.8 rebounds in 16.9 minutes per game in his 32 appearances—two of which came against Dallas—for Sacramento. However, in the first matchup with the Mavs after his arrival, he played 18 minutes with 13 points and eight rebounds. He went for 14 points and 9 rebounds in 23 minutes in the second. He’s offering nutty +170 odds to nab just five boards. He’s done so in four of his last seven.
Best Bet: Jonas Valanciunas 5+ Rebounds (+170)/Betway
