NFL Wild Card Weekend - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Odds & Picks - Jan. 12
All odds provided by Betway.
Steelers vs. Texans Game Prediction
The Houston Texans defense has been the best when it comes to points and yards allowed across this season. But recently they have been pretty good rather than great. They have allowed the 12th-fewest yards over the last five weeks, which means they can be gotten.
And while the Texans did rest a lot of starters in the second half in Week 18, sixth-round Colts rookie QB Riley Leonard was still moving the ball against the starters in the first half. The Texans have allowed Leonard and Justin Herbert the week before to find success through the air. And Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers just happens to be rounding into form with the Pittsburgh passing attack.
Apart from that ugly game against the Browns, Rodgers has been on fire over the past month or so. He’s averaging about 250 yards a game over his last five, and more importantly, he has not turned the ball over during that time either. Houston has only won one game when they fail to force a turnover, and Pittsburgh is 7-1 when they cough it up.
On top of that, Pittsburgh is 6-3 at home this season. But most notably, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has the best record as a home dog since stats started being kept, posting a 23-9-1 ATS record in those scenarios since 2007.
That’s a 72 percent success rate that is nearly 10 percent higher than the next-best team. Over the past two seasons, they are 5-3 ATS in those situations. We like the Steelers to win this one outright, but we’ll play it safe with the spread here.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0 Point Spread (-110)
Steelers vs. Texans Player Prop Best Bet
This won’t be a high-scoring game, but we expect C.J. Stroud to be able to move the ball some. And if he’s doing that, he’s most likely using WR1 Nico Collins. Collins has had 55+ in nine straight games, and the Steelers have not been great against the pass recently. Pittsburgh is allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game over the last five weeks.
Pittsburgh has also given up the fifth-most receiving yards (163.6) per game to wide receivers this season. Collins should be able to take advantage of that as he is moved around the formation.
Pittsburgh gave up 150 to Zay Flowers in Week 18 and allowed four different Lions wideouts to top 50 yards a couple of weeks before that. Even Jerry Jeudy went for 55 on this defense in Week 17. No other receiver in Houston had more than 550 yards this year, so Collins should be the focal point.
Best Bet: Nico Collins To Record 60+ Receiving Yards (-185)
