Texans vs. Bills Week 12 TNF: NFL Betting Odds & Picks

The Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Houston Texans (5-5) are both in the playoff hunt this year in the AFC. But that doesn’t mean they’ve been having good seasons. Both were supposed to win their divisions handily, and neither sits atop their respective group right now.
 
On Thursday Night Football, one of these underachievers will take a step back towards that division title they covet, while the other is blown further afield. And we expect the former to be the one whose star quarterback has remained healthy. Read on for our full betting picks and analysis as well as our NFL betting odds and player prop best bets for Week 12’s TNF matchup!

NFL Week 12 TNF: Houston Texans (5-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-3) Odds & Picks - Nov. 20

All odds provided by Betway

Texans vs. Bills Game Prediction

The Bills have been a bit erratic this season, but most of that erratic play has come within the division. When they face teams from the AFC East, all bets are off essentially. In fact, they’ve lost their last two divisional games straight up. They have one of the worst ATS records in the NFL in divisional games at just 1-3. But when they play outside the division, they are 4-2 ATS.
 
They have won five out of six outside the division, and those five wins have come by an average of 12.6 points, including four out of five by a touchdown or more. The Bills are a different team when they’re not dealing with petty intra-division squabbles. Meanwhile, Houston is just 2-4 ATS when they play outside the AFC South.
 
The Texans have the best defense in the league, allowing the fewest points and yards while sitting in the top three in both pass and run defense. But if anyone can unlock that door, it’s Josh Allen right now. Apart from that Miami hiccup we’re all going to pretend didn’t happen, he’s been a monster over the last month, winning his other three games by an average of about 17 points.
 
Josh Allen has never lost a Thursday Night Football game in eight tries, and the Texans haven’t won one in at least three years. Not to mention that C.J. Stroud has once again been ruled out. Davis Mills has done an admirable job, but the bet was always going to be the Bills as long as betting sites didn’t have Josh Allen giving more than a TD to a backup QB. This 5.5-point spread will do us just fine.
 
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -5.5 Point Spread (-110)

Texans vs. Bills Player Prop Best Bets

Building on our point that the Bills are a different animal when they play outside the AFC East, the same holds true for their star QB. Buffalo has played four divisional games, and Josh Allen has not scored a rushing TD in any of them. But in five of his six non-divisional games he has found pay dirt, including seven in his last three such games. We like him to power his way in for another one here in prime time. 
 
We also like Houston’s starting running back, Woody Marks, to find the end zone as well. Marks has only scored four times this season, but that’s fine. He’s the one getting the red zone touches over the last five weeks. He’s got 12 carries inside the 20 compared to six combined for Nick Chubb and Dare Ogunbowale during that time.
 
And the Bills have given up an NFL-high 15 TDs to opposing running backs. That includes at least one score for the opponent’s RB in eight straight games and nine of 10 this season overall. Buffalo’s run defense has been especially generous over the last two weeks, allowing 100+ yards and a pair of scores to both Sean Tucker and De’Von Achane in back-to-back games.

Best Bet:

• Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
• Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)