Odds courtesy of TonyBet
Mountain West Conference - Outright Winner
UNLV currently has the best odds to win the conference at football betting sites. New Mexico and North Dakota State are right on their heels. This conference definitely has a different look after Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and San Diego State recently departed.
UNLV
UNLV remains the conference’s most established contender after reaching the Mountain West Championship Game in three consecutive seasons. Dan Mullen won 10 games during his first year in Las Vegas, while the Rebels averaged 34.1 points per contest and scored at least 30 points in a school-record 11 games. There is still significant roster turnover to navigate, but Mullen has reinforced the offense with Auburn transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold. Veteran running back Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas also returns. With 30 victories over the past three seasons, UNLV has developed the consistency required to remain near the top.
New Mexico
New Mexico may possess the most complete roster in the Mountain West. The Lobos went 9-4 during Jason Eck’s first season, tied UNLV for first place at 6-2 and defeated the Rebels 40-35 in Las Vegas. Unlike last year’s rebuilding group, New Mexico enters 2026 with the most returning starters and overall production in the conference. Quarterback Jack Layne is back alongside running backs Scottre Humphrey and Deshaun Buchanan, tight end Cade Keith and four starting offensive linemen. Defensively, preseason conference player of the year Jaxton Eck leads an experienced unit capable of turning last season’s breakthrough into a championship.
North Dakota State
North Dakota State immediately becomes a Mountain West contender because of its championship culture and physical identity. The Bison finished their final FCS season at 12-1, went unbeaten in Missouri Valley Football Conference play and were ranked fourth in the final national poll. Moving into the FBS will bring greater weekly depth and athleticism, especially during road games, but Tim Polasek’s system should translate well. Polasek also has previous Mountain West experience from his time as Wyoming’s offensive coordinator. North Dakota State may require time to settle its quarterback situation, but its offensive line, rushing attack and defensive discipline should prevent a dramatic first-year drop-off.
Hawaii
Hawaii has the most dangerous quarterback-receiver combination in the conference. Micah Alejado completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns as a freshman, earning Mountain West Freshman of the Year honors. He enters 2026 as the conference’s preseason offensive player of the year. Alejado will once again target Pofele Ashlock, who caught 76 passes for 827 yards and eight scores last season. Hawaii finished 9-4 and defeated California in the Hawaii Bowl, providing Timmy Chang’s program with legitimate momentum. The Warriors must become more consistent away from Honolulu, but their explosive passing offense gives them championship-level upside.
Mountain West Picks
The Lobos combine proven coaching, an experienced quarterback, a deep backfield and the conference’s best returning production. They also host UNLV and North Dakota State in Albuquerque.
The Rebels have more roster uncertainty than New Mexico, but Mullen’s offensive system, an upgraded quarterback room and three straight title-game appearances make them difficult to move out of the top two.
Picks: New Mexico (+264), UNLV (+259)/TonyBet
