US Open Final: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds, Analysis, & Picks

The best of the best in the ATP Tour will once again meet in a Grand Slam as Jannik Sinner faces Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open final on Sunday, September 7. The first serve is scheduled for 1:15 pm ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Sinner proved to be too much for Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semis, beating him in four sets. As for Alcaraz, he made easy work of Novak Djokovic, taking the Serb down in straight sets on Friday. Read on for the Sinner vs Alcaraz picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds

Sinner is a slim -125 moneyline favorite at tennis sportsbooks. Alcaraz, meanwhile, sits at +105 odds.

These two have built quite the rivalry. They’ve met 14 times, with Alcaraz winning nine of those matches. The youngsters battled it out in two Major finals already this season at the French Open and Wimbledon, grabbing one victory apiece.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Analysis

It’s becoming very clear who are the future of this next generation in men’s tennis. Sinner has always shown promise, but over the last couple of years, he’s played at a different level. The Italian has won two Grand Slams already in 2025, losing in the final, as previously mentioned, in the other. He has the chance to win a third of the year, which is absolutely unheard of. The No. 1 player in the world is as consistent as can be, and the only one who has shown the ability to actually beat him is Alcaraz.

Sinner has only dropped two sets en route to the final, beating the likes of Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Bublik, and Denis Shapovalov. He’s only lost four times all year and although both of his titles were at Majors, that’s the ones which matter the most. Sinner is also the first Italian to ever reach No. 1 in the world, and he’s held that title since early June.

Alcaraz broke onto the scene as a superstar a little earlier than Sinner, but it’s also clear he’s the Spaniard’s biggest roadblock to becoming the main man on the Tour. Alcaraz has made at least the quarterfinals at all three Grand Slams so far, bowing out in the last eight in Australia. He reached the final in the other two.

Alcaraz first enjoyed glory in the US Open in 2022, beating Casper Ruud in the final. He proved to be too much for the Djokovic on Friday, running through him in three sets. Nole made a lot of careless mistakes, but it was clear that the difference in age is hard for Djokovic. Alcaraz ‘s athleticism is off the charts, but Sinner can match him stride for stride. He can play sloppy at times, and against Sinner, that could hurt Alcaraz.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Picks

Alcaraz has won six of the previous seven meetings with Sinner. But, I’m not going to pick a winner. The Over in games offers more value. They’ve played some marathons before, and I expect it to be another hard-fought match. Three of the last four meetings in Grand Slams have cashed Over 41.5.

Pick: Over 41.5 Games (-120)/Sports Interaction