US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds, Analysis, & Picks

Felix Auger-Aliassime will be looking to continue his Cinderella run at the 2025 US Open when he meets with world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the semifinals on Friday, September 5. The first serve is scheduled for 7 pm ET. Auger-Aliassime beat Australia’s Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals in four sets. As for Sinner, he took down fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti, beating his countryman in straight sets. Read below for the Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime picks.

Odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Odds

The odds have Sinner as a huge -2500 moneyline favorite at tennis sportsbooks. Auger-Aliassime returns at +1000 odds and would offer tremendous value as an underdog if he did pull off the upset.

It’s actually surprising to see Sinner as such a large favorite. In four meetings overall, Auger-Aliassime has won three times. Sinner did come out victorious in their last meeting this summer, though, grabbing a win in the Cincinnati Open quarterfinals, also on a hard-court surface.

Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Analysis

It’s hard to find another player in such top form like Sinner. He’s had a tremendous year, winning two of the three Grand Slams so far – the Aussie Open and Wimbledon. Sinner was also in the final of the French Open, but he ultimately lost to rival Carlos Alcaraz. Italy’s superstar has a 36-4 record this season and although his only two titles were at Majors, that’s truly what matters most. He has a realistic chance at winning a third this weekend.

Sinner hadn’t dropped a single set in the US Open until he came up against Musetti, winning in four. He’s looked very dominant in this event, beating some other quality players along the way, including Denis Shapovalov and Alexander Bublik. Although he’s favored to win this one with ease according to the sportsbooks, Sinner certainly won’t be taking Auger-Aliassime for granted, especially since he’s only beaten him once before. It should be an entertaining affair.

Auger-Aliassime has always been a talented player, but he’s still yet to actually win a Major in his career. That being said, progressing to the semis is only the second time he’s done so in a Grand Slam, also making the last four in the 2021 edition of the tournament. Auger-Aliassime hasn’t had it easy at all up to this point, either. He’s taken down three very good players.

First, Alexander Zverev was beaten by the Canadian in the third round, before Auger-Aliassime defeated Andrey Rublev. Both are top-15 players in the world, with Zverev sitting at No. 3. Auger-Aliassime, currently ranked No. 27, has played a level above in this event, but Sinner presents his toughest test yet. The 25-year-old must bring his absolute best.

Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Picks

Taking Sinner on the moneyline obviously offers minimal value here. While I do think he will prevail, you cannot count out Auger-Aliassime when he’s playing so well. I’ll take this one to go the full five sets. The Canadian star will push Sinner to the brink.

Pick: Sinner to win 3-2 (+900)/Sports Interaction