Odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz Odds
| Player | Odds |
| Novak Djokovic | +290 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | -375 |
Alcaraz is a heavy -375 moneyline favorite at tennis betting sites. Djokovic, who is rarely an underdog, returns with +290 odds.
These two are very familiar with each other. They’ve met eight times, with Nole holding the 5-3 edge. He’s won their last two meetings – at the 2024 Olympics in Paris, and at the 2025 Australian Open at the quarterfinal stage. This is the first clash between them at the US Open.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz Analysis
38 years of age, and still competing in the biggest tournaments in the world. Djokovic may not be as healthy as he once was, but the Serbian continues to find himself in the latter stages of Majors. He’s gunning for his record 25th Grand Slam title, having previously won the US Open four times. The last time he lifted the grand prize in Flushing was in 2023. Djokovic has a 31-9 record this season, but he’s won just one title overall. The legend is ranked No. 7 on the ATP Tour.
When it comes to this year’s Majors, he’s made the semifinals of every single one so far, but has failed to progress to a final. Djokovic certainly has his work cut out for him as he faces the always dangerous Alcaraz, but he’s no stranger to the Serb. Nole's toughest opponent en route to the semis has been Fritz, who pushed him to the brink earlier this week. Djokovic also had to get past Cam Norrie, one of the UK’s best.
Alcaraz may be ranked No. 2 behind in-form Jannik Sinner, but he’s having a hell of a season. The young Spaniard has captured six titles and has lost just six matches while winning nearly 60 times. That includes a trophy at the French Open a couple of months ago, while losing in the final at Wimbledon to Sinner, and also falling to Djokovic, as previously mentioned, in the Aussie Open quarters to start the year.
The 22-year-old hasn’t dropped a set yet in the US Open. Lehecka, who is No. 20 in the world, was his stiffest test yet, but Alcaraz breezed past him with ease, winning 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. It’s common knowledge that he’s struggled to beat Djokovic on hard surfaces in his young career, but Alcaraz is in top form. He should be feeling confident ahead of this matchup. Limiting the mistakes will be key, and sticking to the game plan. Athleticism only goes so far against an experienced opponent like Nole.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz Picks
I don’t think the odds are doing Djokovic justice. He shouldn’t be such a dramatic underdog, especially considering his track record against Alcaraz. While these two haven’t played five-set thrillers more than once (2023 Wimbledon final), I will take them to go four sets. In the end, though, Alcaraz will prevail.
Pick: Alcaraz to win 3-1 (+270)/Sports Interaction
