ALDS Game 1: Yankees vs Rays Odds, Analysis, & Picks

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays begin their American League Division Series on Saturday evening at Tropicana Field, with first pitch scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay will send ace Drew Rasmussen to the mound after the right-hander had a dominant regular season. The Yankees have yet to officially name their starter, with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón both in the mix. The Rays earned a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the American League, while New York advanced by sweeping the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series. Below, find the Yankees vs Rays Game 1 picks.

Odds courtesy of TonyBet.

Yankees vs Rays Game 1 Odds

The Rays are a heavy -148 moneyline favorite for Game 1 at MLB betting sites. The Yankees return at +116 odds, while the O/U is set at a relatively low 6.5 runs.

These AL East rivals met 13 times during the regular season, with Tampa winning seven times. Five of those victories were at Tropicana Field.

Yankees vs Rays Game 1 Analysis

New York finished the regular season as the top AL Wild Card team at 93-68, just four games back of the Rays for first place in the AL East. Aaron Boone’s squad met the Red Sox in the best-of-3 WC series, and they made quick work of them. Cam Schlittler threw a gem in Game 1 while getting plenty of run support, and Max Fried also dominated in Game 2 behind another solid offensive performance from the Yankees’ bats.

It’s still unclear whether Aaron Judge will be healthy enough to play in Game 1, as he remains sidelined with a calf injury, but New York has shown it has ample offensive firepower to win ballgames without him, especially if Ben Rice continues to rake. On the hill, it’s between Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon for Saturday’s series opener, and both are fantastic options.

The Rays may play in one of the worst stadiums in the Majors, but despite a limited payroll, this ball club often finds itself in the playoffs. Tampa finished 98-64 in 2026, the third-best record in MLB behind only the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Tampa is a fundamentally sound team on both sides of the ball, and they'll feel confident with Rasmussen on the mound. The right-hander was their best start this season, compiling a 16-5 record and 2.67 ERA. Rasmussen posted a 2.22 xERA over his final five outings, allowing just 0.28 HR/9. Rasmussen also had a 2.86 ERA against the Yankees this year over four appearances, holding them to a .182 average.

Yankees vs Rays Game 1 Picks

Rasmussen is very consistent, and New York’s bats have struggled to create offense against him. Add in Tampa’s success against the Yankees at home, and the Rays are the clear pick here for Game 1.

Pick: Rays -148/TonyBet