Red Wings vs Avalanche NHL Predictions & Odds

Avalanche vs Red Wings Best Odds


Avalanche -238	Moneyline	Red Wings +190
Avalanche -1.5: +109	Puck Line	Red Wings +1.5: -130
Over 6.5: -105	Total Goals	Under 6.5: -116

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Colorado has scored five goals in three of its last five games. Detroit has lost by more than one goal just four times all season. Something has to give Saturday night in Denver.

The Avalanche (9-6-2) own the NHL's second-highest scoring offence at 4.00 goals per game, but they're also allowing 3.24 (tied for 18th). They've been scoring plenty, but giving up their share, too. Detroit (7-7-3) has struggled to score consistently, averaging just 2.76 goals, yet opponents have had a surprisingly difficult time putting the Red Wings away.

That makes the puck line more interesting than the outright winner. Colorado is a substantial -238 favourite at bet365, but the Avalanche have won by two or more goals in only eight of their first 17 games. Detroit, meanwhile, has avoided that margin of defeat in 13 of 17.

Red Wings +1.5 at -130 is our preferred bet. Colorado may well win, but asking the Avalanche to win comfortably is a different proposition.

Red Wings vs Avalanche Best Bet

Red Wings +1.5 Puck Line: -130

Detroit has spent much of this season hanging around in games it probably had no business winning. The Red Wings aren't scoring enough to make life comfortable, but they've been remarkably difficult to put away.

They've lost by two or more goals just four times in 17 games, despite averaging only 2.76 goals themselves. Colorado presents a different challenge, having already won eight games by multiple goals. But the Avalanche are also allowing 3.24 goals per game, which gives Detroit a chance to keep pace without needing an unusually productive night offensively. The Red Wings don't have to match Colorado's firepower. They just have to make sure the Avalanche can't run away with it.

Our scoring model gives Detroit a 68.2% chance of covering +1.5, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 54.1%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 61.1%.

At -130, Detroit needs to cover 56.5% of the time to break even. That leaves us an estimated 4.7-percentage-point edge, comfortably above our 1.0-point minimum. The 17-game sample is still relatively small, but there's enough separation between our estimate and the price to justify the wager.

We're comfortable backing Detroit +1.5 at -150 or better. The Red Wings can win outright or lose by a single goal, including in overtime or a shootout, and still cash the ticket.

Colorado is the better team. We're just not convinced the gap is as wide as the puck-line price suggests.

Avalanche vs Red Wings Analysis

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado has scored five goals in three of its last five games, winning all three by identical 5-2 scores. When the Avalanche get rolling, opponents have had a difficult time slowing them down.

But those wins were followed by a rather different two-game stretch. Columbus handed Colorado a 7-2 beating before Nashville escaped Denver with a 3-2 overtime victory. That's nine goals against in two games for a team that had looked pretty comfortable at both ends of the ice.

The offence remains formidable. Colorado averages 4.00 goals per game, second in the NHL, with Nathan MacKinnon and company capable of taking over a game in a hurry. But the Avalanche are allowing 3.24 goals per contest (tied for 18th), and their power play sits just 19th at 20.0%. For all their offensive talent, they haven't been particularly dominant with the man advantage.

That could change against Detroit's 25th-ranked penalty kill (71.7%). It's one of the more concerning matchups for our puck-line pick, especially given how little scoring support the Red Wings have been getting.

Colorado has already demonstrated it can put teams away comfortably. But the Avalanche have also shown they can be vulnerable defensively, and Detroit doesn't need to outscore them to cover. One goal separating these teams at the final horn would suit us just fine.

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Mackenzie Blackwood is projected to start, with Scott Wedgewood also an option.

Recent goalie appearances: Blackwood started Nov. 2 and Nov. 5 and relieved Scott Wedgewood on Nov. 3.

Forwards: A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas, G. Landeskog, N. Kadri, N. Roy, J. Schwartz, B. Nelson, T.J. Hughes, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, L. O'Connor.

Defence: B. Kulak, C. Makar, D. Toews, S. Malinski, N. Juulsen, B. Burns.

Injuries and Availability

Josh Manson: Out with an ankle injury; expected to remain unavailable until at least Dec. 27.
Zachary L'Heureux: On injured reserve with an upper-body injury; expected to remain out until late November.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 6 update and Colorado's Nov. 5 game. Injury information comes from CBS Sports and Daily Faceoff. Starting goalie and final lines remain subject to confirmation.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit's biggest problem isn't that it can't compete with good teams. It's that the Red Wings keep giving themselves so little room for error.

They've scored just three goals across consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Vegas, including a 2-1 defeat Thursday in which Daniil Tarasov stopped 31 of 33 shots. It's difficult to ask much more from your goaltender when the offence gives him one goal to work with.

That lack of scoring has made Detroit an uncomfortable team to trust outright, but there's more fight here than its 7-7-3 record suggests. The Red Wings recently beat Florida 5-3, and they've allowed just 2.94 goals per game (11th). Even when the offence disappears, they've often kept themselves within striking distance.

Tarasov has been a big part of that. His .929 save percentage and 1.79 goals-against average have given Detroit some stability while John Gibson deals with a lower-body injury. Against Colorado's attack, the Red Wings will likely need another strong performance in goal.

The bigger concern is who's missing up front. Dylan Larkin remains suspended amid his trade dispute, while Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are on injured reserve. Detroit is asking more of Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and a relatively inexperienced supporting cast at a time when goals are already hard to find.

The Red Wings aren't likely to win a shootout with Colorado. But they don't have to. If Tarasov keeps them in the game and Detroit finds a couple of goals, the Avalanche could have a much tougher time covering that puck line than their offensive numbers suggest.

Detroit Red Wings Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Daniil Tarasov is the projected starter.

Recent goalie appearances: Tarasov started Nov. 2 and Nov. 5 and relieved John Gibson on Nov. 3.

Forwards: A. DeBrincat, E. Finnie, V. Arvidsson, M. Brandsegg-Nygård, A. Copp, L. Raymond, M. Rasmussen, J.T. Compher, J. Leonard, C. Mazur, S. Dries, K. Kolesar.

Defence: B. Chiarot, M. Seider, W. Wallinder, J. Faulk, A. Englund, Anton Johansson.

Injuries and Availability

John Gibson: Day-to-day with a lower-body injury. His status for Saturday remains uncertain.
Dylan Larkin: Unavailable due to a team suspension; listed out until at least Nov. 14.
Marco Kasper: On injured reserve with an upper-body injury; listed out until at least Nov. 14.
Mason Appleton: On injured reserve; listed out until at least Nov. 14.
Albert Johansson: On injured reserve; listed out until at least Nov. 12.
Simon Edvinsson: Unavailable amid a contract dispute; listed out until at least Nov. 28.

Projected skaters are based on Detroit's Nov. 5 lineup and Nov. 7 reporting. Injury information comes from NHL.com and Detroit Hockey Now. Starting goalie and final lines remain subject to confirmation.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Avalanche vs Red Wings Prediction

Outcome	Market Probability (Margin Removed)	Our Estimate
Avalanche Win	67%	61%
Red Wings Win	33%	39%

Avalanche's Last Five Games

Opponent	Score	Result
NSH (Home)	2-3	L (OT)
CBJ (Away)	2-7	L
CHI (Away)	5-2	W
CGY (Home)	5-2	W
NJD (Home)	5-2	W

Red Wings' Last Five Games

Opponent	Score	Result
VGK (Home)	1-2	L
TBL (Away)	2-4	L
FLA (Away)	5-3	W
STL (Home)	4-5	L
CHI (Home)	4-1	W

Each team's score is listed first in the tables. Results use official final scores, including the deciding goal in shootouts. Goals-per-game and shots figures cover regulation and overtime. Over and under counts include the deciding shootout goal.

Colorado's recent results offer a pretty good warning about what we're betting against. The Avalanche beat New Jersey, Calgary and Chicago by identical 5-2 scores, then followed that stretch with a 7-2 loss to Columbus and an overtime defeat against Nashville. When Colorado is clicking, it can put games out of reach. Lately, though, that hasn't been a guarantee.

Detroit has its own problems, particularly with Dylan Larkin unavailable and goals becoming harder to find. But the Red Wings have allowed just three goals across their last two games. They lost both, which says plenty about their offence, but neither opponent managed to pull away. Against Colorado, keeping the score close might be their most realistic path to a result.

The market gives the Avalanche a 67.1% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin. Our blended estimate is 61.1%, suggesting Colorado's chances aren't quite as strong as the odds imply. That doesn't make Detroit the likelier winner, but it does give us reason to question whether the Avalanche deserve to be such heavy favourites.

Detroit's moneyline at +190 also shows value, with an estimated 4.4-percentage-point edge. But the +1.5 puck line at -130 offers slightly more at approximately 4.7 points, without requiring the Red Wings to win outright. Under our one-bet-per-game approach, that's the stronger choice.

Colorado has won three of four meetings since the start of the 2024-25 season, although Detroit covered +1.5 in two of them, including a 2-0 win in Denver. It's a small sample, and the current rosters matter more than those results.

The Avalanche deserve to be favourites. We're just giving Detroit a better chance of making them work for it than the puck-line price suggests.

Exact Score Prediction: Avalanche 3, Red Wings 2

Our model sees a 3-3 regulation tie as the most likely individual scoreline at 4.9%. Among winning outcomes, Colorado's 3-2 victory leads at 4.8%, ahead of Detroit's at 4.3%. We're siding with the Avalanche to win, but not expecting them to have an easy night.

The goal projections are surprisingly close. Colorado is expected to score 3.41 goals to Detroit's 3.08, for a combined 6.49. That's a much tighter matchup than the moneyline might lead you to believe, particularly given Colorado's reputation for overwhelming opponents offensively.

Detroit's lack of scoring remains the concern. Against an Avalanche team that has already won eight games by multiple goals, falling behind early could get ugly. But the Red Wings have made a habit of sticking around, even on nights when their offence looks like it's taken the evening off.

Colorado 3-2 is our prediction. Detroit +1.5 at -130 is our bet, playable to -150. The Avalanche can have the win. We're perfectly happy letting Detroit make it an unnecessarily stressful one.