Mammoth vs. Senators Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 7

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Utah's power play has been a problem for just about everyone this season. For Ottawa, a team already struggling to kill penalties, the timing couldn't be much worse.

The Mammoth (10-6-1) arrive with the NHL's top-ranked power play, converting an impressive 38.3% of their opportunities. Ottawa (10-6-1), meanwhile, ranks 23rd on the penalty kill at 73.8%. It's a clear advantage for Utah, but the Senators have been the more reliable team defensively overall, allowing 3.06 goals per game compared with the Mammoth's 3.47. Ottawa also returns home with an extra day of rest following a lengthy road trip.

That contrast helps explain why the betting market isn't giving either team much separation. bet365 lists Utah as a narrow -118 favourite, with Ottawa at -103 and the total set at 6.5 goals. There's enough offensive potential here to make the over interesting, particularly if Utah gets opportunities with the man advantage. Whether that potential is worth betting on comes down to the price.

Over 6.5 at +101 is the closest we've come to finding value, but it doesn't quite meet our criteria.

Over 6.5 Goals: Wait for +105 or Better

Utah's biggest argument for the over isn't just how often it scores. It's how often the Mammoth need to keep scoring.

They're averaging 3.59 goals per game, eighth in the NHL, but allowing 3.47, which ranks 25th. That's a difficult combination for protecting leads, but an interesting one for totals. Ten of Utah's first 17 games have cleared 6.5 goals, and its league-leading 38.3% power play gives it another way to turn an ordinary game into a high-scoring one.

Ottawa presents a different challenge. The Senators allow 3.06 goals per game, with only six of their 17 contests clearing 6.5. They've generally been better at limiting opponents, but their 73.8% penalty kill is a glaring exception. Against Utah's power play, that weakness could undo a lot of otherwise respectable defensive work.

There's an opportunity at the other end, too. Utah's penalty kill sits 26th at 70.4%, although Ottawa's 31st-ranked power play (12.1%) hasn't exactly inspired confidence. Both teams have exploitable weaknesses when shorthanded. Whether either can capitalize is another matter.

Our model gives Over 6.5 a 53.1% chance of hitting, considerably higher than the market's margin-free estimate of 47.5%. Blending the two produces our final probability of 50.3%. The model sees more scoring potential than the market, but that disagreement alone doesn't make the wager worthwhile.

At +101, the over requires a 49.8% hit rate to break even, leaving us an edge of just 0.5 percentage points, below our 1.0-point minimum. With both teams only 17 games into the season, there's little reason to stretch that requirement.

At +105 or better, the break-even probability drops to approximately 48.8%, giving us enough room to reconsider. Over 6.5 requires at least seven goals, including overtime and any additional goal credited to a shootout winner.

The matchup offers several paths to seven goals. At +101, none provides quite enough value to justify the wager.

See the Current Senators vs Mammoth Odds at bet365

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa's 10-6-1 record looks respectable enough, but the Senators haven't exactly taken the smoothest route to getting there.

They've won just two of their last five, with losses to Vegas, Los Angeles and Anaheim. Those defeats produced 16 goals against, including six apiece surrendered to the Kings and Ducks. That's a rough stretch for a team allowing 3.06 goals per game (15th), and a reminder that Ottawa's defensive results haven't always been as steady as its season average suggests.

The offence has been similarly unpredictable. Ottawa scored five against both San Jose and Los Angeles, then managed just two in its most recent game against Buffalo. At 3.06 goals per game (19th), the Senators have enough scoring ability to compete, but not the kind of consistent production that makes playing from behind particularly comfortable.

That 2-1 win in Buffalo did at least give Ottawa a better ending to its road trip. The Senators return home for the first time since October 24, with an extra day of rest before facing a Utah team playing its fifth consecutive road game.

Ottawa doesn't need a perfect defensive performance against the Mammoth. It does need something considerably closer to Buffalo than Anaheim.

Ottawa Senators Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Samuel Ersson is projected to start, according to Daily Faceoff.

Recent goalie starts: Ersson started October 31 and November 4; Jonas Johansson started November 1.

Forwards: N. Cousins, T. Stützle, F. Zetterlund, P. Tomasino, S. Pinto, D. Batherson, M. Amadio, D. Cozens, C. Giroux, S. Blais, S. Halliday, H. Hodgson.

Defence: J. Sanderson, A. Zub, T. Chabot, J. Spence, N. Matinpalo, C. Yakemchuk.

Injuries and Availability

• Linus Ullmark: On injured reserve with a lower-body injury; expected to remain out until at least November 10.
• Ridly Greig: Out with a lower-body injury; expected to remain out until at least November 10.
• Andre Burakovsky: On injured reserve with a lower-body injury; expected to remain out until at least November 27.
• Warren Foegele: On injured reserve with a knee injury; expected to remain out until at least November 25.
• William Eklund: On injured reserve with an ankle injury; expected to remain out until at least January 5.
• Tyler Kleven: Day-to-day, according to Daily Faceoff.

Projected skaters reflect Daily Faceoff's November 5 update and Ottawa's November 4 game. Injury information is based on CBS Sports and Daily Faceoff reporting. Starting goaltender and final lines remain subject to confirmation.

Utah Mammoth

Utah can score four goals and still spend the night wondering where everything went wrong. Thursday's 5-4 overtime loss in Montreal was another reminder that the Mammoth's offence has been doing considerably more work than their defence.

The Mammoth have won just two of their last five, allowing at least three goals in four of those games. They've shown they can tighten things up, as they did in a 3-2 victory over Toronto, but that performance looks more like the exception lately. Philadelphia put six past them, and Montreal followed with five.

Ottawa is the fifth stop on Utah's extended road trip, which has already taken the Mammoth through Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Toronto and Montreal. The Mammoth have collected five of a possible eight points along the way, but they've also conceded 16 goals. That's a lot of defensive work left unfinished.

There's uncertainty in goal, too. Karel Vejmelka is the projected starter, although Sebastian Cossa handled the last two games. Until Utah confirms its starter, that's another variable worth keeping in mind.

Utah's offence makes it dangerous regardless of the opponent. But the Mammoth have been giving teams too many opportunities to answer, and Ottawa has already shown it can punish opponents when those chances appear.

Utah Mammoth Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Karel Vejmelka was the original projected starter, although Sebastian Cossa is also being projected by some lineup sources.

Recent goalie starts: Vejmelka started November 1; Cossa started November 3 and November 5.

Forwards: A. Lee, B. Hayton, C. Keller, J. McBain, N. Schmaltz, D. Guenther, L. Cooley, V. Trocheck, L. Crouse, M. Carcone, K. Stenlund, L. O'Brien.

Defence: M. Sergachev, M. Weegar, N. Schmidt, A. Peeke, D. Simashev, N. DeSimone.

Injuries and Availability

• Kailer Yamamoto: Originally listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury; a November 6 lineup update places him on injured reserve.
• Nate Schmidt: Listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury in the original report; a newer lineup projection lists him as a scratch.
• John Marino: On injured reserve with an upper-body injury, expected to remain out until at least November 14.
• Maveric Lamoureux: On injured reserve with a shoulder injury, expected to remain out until at least February 12.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's November 6 update and Utah's November 5 game. Starting goalie, defensive pairings and injury availability require final confirmation before puck drop.

Moneyline

Senators -103 | Mammoth -118

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Senators' Last Five Games

Mammoth's Last Five Games

Each team's score is listed first in the tables. Results use official final scores, including the deciding goal in shootouts. Goals-per-game and shots figures cover regulation and overtime. Over and under counts include the deciding shootout goal.

The betting market gives Utah a slight advantage, but it's hardly a ringing endorsement. After removing the bookmaker's margin, the Mammoth have a 51.6% chance of winning, compared with our model's 50.2%. Blending the two produces a final estimate of 50.9%. That's about as close to a coin flip as a matchup gets.

The recent results help explain the hesitation. Both teams have won just twice in their last five, although they've arrived at those results differently. Ottawa has alternated between convincing defensive performances and games where everything unravels. Utah has been more dangerous offensively, but has allowed 19 goals over that same five-game stretch.

Neither team's recent form makes a compelling case for backing it at the current price. Over 6.5 at +101 remains the closest opportunity, with a 0.5-percentage-point edge. Ottawa's moneyline at -103 and +1.5 puck line at -263 fall short of break-even by 1.0 and 1.1 points, respectively. The remaining markets are further from qualifying.

The head-to-head history offers a counterargument to the over. Ottawa has won three of four meetings since Utah entered the league in 2024-25, and none produced more than six goals. That's worth acknowledging, but four meetings aren't enough to override what we're seeing from these teams this season.

Utah has the stronger attack. Ottawa has been better at limiting goals. Neither has played consistently enough lately to make those advantages decisive, and the prices aren't offering much incentive to choose a side.

Our model sees a 3-3 regulation tie as the most likely individual scoreline at 4.9%. Among winning outcomes, Ottawa's 3-2 victory (4.5%) narrowly leads Utah's (4.4%). But individual scorelines don't tell the whole story. Our blended estimate gives the Mammoth a slight overall edge, and we're leaning toward their offensive talent being enough to secure a 3-2 road victory.

The goal projections add another wrinkle. Ottawa is expected to score 3.31 goals to Utah's 3.24, for a combined 6.55. That suggests more scoring potential than our exact-score prediction, but an average across possible outcomes isn't a promise of seven goals on Saturday.

There's enough here to make Over 6.5 interesting, but at +101, our estimated edge is just 0.5 percentage points. We'd reconsider at +105 or better. Under 6.5 at -122 is even less attractive, falling 5.2 points short of break-even.

There's a difference between having an opinion on a game and having an edge worth betting. We've got the first. We're still waiting on the second.