Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 7

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Montreal keeps finding ways to collect points. Nine straight games with at least one, a 10-3-3 record, and now a trip to Toronto to face a Maple Leafs team that's had three days to stew over its latest loss. The Leafs (8-7-2) haven't played since falling 3-2 to Utah on Nov. 3, but their fourth-ranked penalty kill could make life difficult for Montreal's struggling power play. bet365 has the Canadiens as slight -118 favourites, Toronto at -103, and the total at 6.5 goals.

The matchup is close enough to make the betting market interesting, but interesting doesn't always mean playable. Toronto +1.5 at -250 comes closest to meeting our criteria, yet the price still falls short of the edge we need. There's a potential bet here. Just not at that number.

Maple Leafs +1.5 Puck Line: Wait for -230 or Better

Toronto doesn't need to beat Montreal to make this puck line interesting. A one-goal loss would do the job, and our model gives the Maple Leafs a reasonable chance of staying within that margin. Unfortunately, the sportsbook isn't giving much away.

Our model puts Toronto's chances of covering +1.5 at 73.3%, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 68.5%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 70.9%. That's a favourable outlook for the Maple Leafs, but it doesn't automatically make them a good bet.

At -250, the puck line requires a 71.4% hit rate just to break even. Our projection falls short of that mark, let alone the additional 1.0-percentage-point edge we require. And with Toronto having played 17 games and Montreal 16, there's still enough early-season uncertainty to make paying a premium even less appealing.

At -230 or better, the break-even requirement drops to approximately 69.7%, putting the wager back within our acceptable range.

Toronto can cover this number. We just aren't willing to pay -250 to find out.

See the current Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds at bet365

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto has scored enough to win more games than its recent results suggest. The Maple Leafs average 3.65 goals per game, seventh in the NHL, but they're allowing 3.24 (tied for 18th). Ten of their first 17 games have cleared 6.5 goals, reflecting a team that's been considerably more reliable at producing offence than preventing it.

Special teams could give Toronto an advantage against Montreal. The Leafs' sixth-ranked power play converts at 28.8%, while their penalty kill ranks fourth at 88.1%. Montreal sits 30th on the power play (14.0%) and 14th on the penalty kill (78.5%). That's an advantage for Toronto in both situations, although it won't mean much if the game is largely played at even strength.

The results haven't quite followed the offensive numbers. Toronto has won only two of its last five, most recently losing 3-2 to Utah on Nov. 3. The Leafs haven't consistently turned their scoring ability into victories, which makes the defensive side of their game particularly important against a Montreal team that's been finding ways to collect points.

John Tavares could help change the equation. He's expected to return Saturday after missing nine games and has already resumed work with Toronto's top power-play unit. His return would give an already productive offence another established option, particularly with the man advantage.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

• Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Sergei Bobrovsky is projected to start, with Anthony Stolarz also available.
• Recent goalie starts: Bobrovsky started Oct. 28 and Nov. 3; Stolarz started Oct. 31.
• Forwards: E. Cowan, A. Matthews, J. Roslovic, J. Tavares, N. Paul, W. Nylander, D. Joshua, C. Sissons, G. McKenna, B. Duhaime, T. Blueger, Z. MacEwen.
• Defence: J. McCabe, D. Raddysh, M. Rielly, C. Tanev, O. Ekman-Larsson, T. Stecher.

Injuries and Availability

• John Tavares: Expected to return Saturday after missing nine games with a lower-body injury. Practised Friday in a regular jersey and worked with Toronto's top power-play unit. His participation remains subject to final confirmation.
• Jack Roslovic: Returned to his regular first-line position in Friday's projected lineup after a maintenance day earlier in the week.
• Max Domi: On injured reserve with a back injury, expected to be out until at least Jan. 30 (CBS Sports).
• Kirill Marchenko: On injured reserve with a lower-body injury, expected to be out until at least Nov. 17 (CBS Sports).
• Marshall Rifai: Listed as out with a lower-body injury, with CBS Sports projecting an absence until at least Nov. 8.

The projected lineup reflects November 6 reporting from NHL.com and Daily Faceoff. Starting goaltenders and final line combinations remain subject to confirmation before puck drop.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal has been collecting points, even when its defence hasn't made things particularly comfortable. The Canadiens average 3.44 goals per game (12th in the NHL) while allowing 3.19 (17th). Eleven of their first 16 games have cleared 6.5 goals, suggesting that Montreal's ability to score has frequently been needed to compensate for what it gives up.

The Canadiens have earned at least a point in nine consecutive games and won four of their last five. Their two most recent outings were a 5-4 overtime loss to Winnipeg and a 5-4 overtime win over Utah. That's four points available across two games and three collected, but also nine goals conceded. Montreal is finding ways to stay competitive without necessarily controlling games defensively.

Toronto presents a different challenge, particularly on special teams. Montreal's 14.0% power play has struggled to generate offence, and its 78.5% penalty kill will be tested by one of the league's more productive units. The Canadiens have shown they can keep scoring games close, but giving Toronto additional opportunities with the man advantage would make that task considerably harder.

Montreal Canadiens Projected Lineup

• Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Jacob Fowler is currently projected to start, with Jakub Dobes also available.
• Recent goalie starts: Fowler started Oct. 31 and Nov. 3; Dobes started Nov. 5.
• Forwards: C. Caufield, N. Suzuki, J. Slafkovský, C. Kreider, J. Evans, J. Anderson, Z. Bolduc, P. Danault, A. Texier, A. Newhook, O. Kapanen, K. Dach.
• Defence: L. Hutson, N. Dobson, K. Guhle, A. Carrier, A. Xhekaj, A. Engstrom.

Injuries and Availability

• Sam Montembeault: On injured reserve according to Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports. CBS Sports (Nov. 5) lists him out until at least Nov. 7.
• Ivan Demidov: On injured reserve with an ankle injury. CBS Sports (Nov. 4) lists him out until at least Nov. 14; Daily Faceoff also lists him on injured reserve.
• Mike Matheson: Out according to Daily Faceoff. CBS Sports (Oct. 31) reports a lower-body injury, with an expected absence until at least Nov. 14.

The projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 5 update and Montreal's Nov. 5 game. Injury and availability information comes from CBS Sports and Daily Faceoff.

Projected lines and starting goalies remain subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs -103 | Canadiens -118

Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000

Bet Now

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Maple Leafs' Last Five Games

Canadiens' Last Five Games

Scores are listed from each team's perspective, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game and shot averages reflect regulation and overtime only. The over/under records in this article include the additional goal credited to the shootout winner.

Montreal has the slight advantage in the betting market, with a 51.6% win probability after removing the sportsbook's margin. Our model leans the other way, giving Toronto a 51.3% chance of winning. Blend those estimates together, and Montreal holds a razor-thin 50.1% edge. For all the differences in how these teams have performed recently, our final projection sees almost nothing separating them.

Unfortunately, a competitive matchup doesn't automatically produce an attractive betting opportunity. Toronto +1.5 at -250 comes closest, but our estimated cover probability still falls roughly half a percentage point below break-even. Over 6.5 at -118 also falls short, while Toronto's moneyline misses our required edge by 0.9 percentage points. The remaining three markets are even further from qualifying, falling short by 3.7 to 4.3 points. None clears our betting threshold.

Recent meetings don't offer much reason to force a selection. Montreal has won five of nine against Toronto since the start of the 2024-25 season, including a 3-2 regulation victory on Sept. 29. Only three of those games cleared 6.5 goals, but nine meetings aren't enough to override what the current matchup and market prices are telling us.

There's a case for either team winning. There just isn't a compelling case for paying the current price to find out.

Exact Score Prediction: Canadiens 3, Maple Leafs 2

Montreal has spent nine straight games finding ways to collect points, but Toronto has the tools to make extending that streak difficult. The Maple Leafs bring the stronger special-teams numbers, with their fourth-ranked penalty kill particularly well suited to frustrating Montreal's struggling power play. It's one reason our model gives Toronto a slight advantage, even as the betting market leans toward the Canadiens.

And the numbers suggest this could go either way. A 3-3 regulation tie is the model's most likely individual scoreline at 4.8%, while Toronto's 3-2 victory (4.4%) narrowly leads Montreal's 3-2 win (4.3%) among winning outcomes. After blending the model with the market, however, Montreal holds a fractional 50.1% edge. We're taking the Canadiens 3-2, giving a slight nod to their recent form in a matchup where neither team has established much separation.

The goal projections tell a similar story. Our model expects 3.32 goals from Montreal and 3.40 from Toronto, for a combined total of 6.72. There's enough offensive ability on both sides to produce a higher-scoring game, but a projected average above 6.5 isn't the same as finding value on the over. At the available price, the numbers don't quite get us there.

Toronto +1.5 remains the closest thing to an opportunity, but -250 is too expensive for our estimated cover probability. At -230 or better, we'd reconsider. Until then, we're leaving the puck line alone, just as we're passing on the other markets.

Montreal has the momentum. Toronto has the matchup advantages to challenge it. And our final projection gives the Canadiens little more than a coin flip's chance of winning. Picking a winner is part of the job. Pretending that makes it a good bet isn't.