Golden Knights vs. Red Wings Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 5

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Golden Knights (10-5-2) visit the Red Wings (7-6-3) on Thursday, with both teams last playing on Nov. 3. Vegas comes in as a -141 favourite at bet365, with the total set at 5.5 goals. Detroit is the more interesting side from a betting standpoint, although its +120 moneyline isn't quite enough to meet our threshold.

Red Wings Moneyline: Wait for +125 or Better

Detroit's moneyline comes closest to meeting our betting criteria. At +120, a Red Wings win would cash whether it comes in regulation, overtime or a shootout. The price isn't quite where we need it, though, so we're staying on the sidelines for now.

Our model gives Detroit a 49.0% chance of winning, but the market is less optimistic about the Red Wings. Blending the two estimates brings our final probability down to 46.4%.

At +120, Detroit needs to win 45.5% of the time to break even. Our 46.4% estimate gives the Red Wings a slim 0.9-percentage-point edge, just shy of our 1.0-point minimum. It's a close call, but with Detroit having played only 16 games and Vegas 17, we're not working with much early-season data to justify stretching our criteria.

Once the bookmaker's margin is removed, the market gives Detroit a 43.7% chance of winning. We'd consider backing the Red Wings at +125 or better, but anything shorter isn't worth the risk.

See the current Red Wings vs Golden Knights odds at bet365

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Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Detroit Red Wings

Goals haven't come easily for Detroit this season. The Red Wings average just 2.88 per game, ranking 24th in the NHL, although they've been more reliable defensively, allowing 3.00 per game (tied for 11th). Still, their games have featured more scoring than you might expect, with 10 of their first 16 clearing the 5.5-goal mark.

Detroit's power play has been a bright spot, ranking 10th in the NHL at 23.6%. The penalty kill, however, has been another story, sitting tied for 25th at just 70.0%. That's not an encouraging combination against Vegas, whose power play ranks sixth at 29.4%. If the Red Wings spend too much time in the penalty box, the Golden Knights have the numbers to make them pay.

Detroit is coming off a 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Nov. 3, but the Red Wings have still won three of their last five, including one in a shootout. Goals have been fairly plentiful during that stretch, too, with four of those five games clearing the 5.5-goal mark.

Detroit Red Wings Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Daily Faceoff lists Daniil Tarasov as the projected starter.

Recent goalie appearances: John Gibson started Oct. 31 and Nov. 3. Tarasov started Nov. 2 and relieved Gibson after the first period on Nov. 3.

Forwards: A. DeBrincat, E. Finnie, V. Arvidsson, M. Brandsegg-Nygård, A. Copp, L. Raymond, M. Rasmussen, J. Compher, J. Leonard, C. Mazur, S. Dries, K. Kolesar.

Defence: B. Chiarot, M. Seider, W. Wallinder, J. Faulk, A. Englund, Anton Johansson.

Injuries and Availability

John Gibson: Questionable with a lower-body injury after leaving the Nov. 3 game against Tampa Bay.

Dylan Larkin: Unavailable due to a team suspension.

Marco Kasper: On injured reserve with an upper-body injury.

Mason Appleton: On injured reserve with an undisclosed injury.

Simon Edvinsson: Unavailable; reported contract dispute.

Albert Johansson: Placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24.

Roster Update

Michal Postava: Recalled from Grand Rapids under emergency conditions on Nov. 4.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 4 update and the Nov. 3 game. Injury information comes from Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports; the roster move comes from NHL.com.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has been getting the job done at both ends of the ice, averaging 3.35 goals per game (12th in the NHL) while allowing just 2.82, the sixth-best mark in the league. You might expect that defensive record to keep scores down, but the Golden Knights have cleared 5.5 goals in 11 of their first 17 games.

Vegas has been dangerous with the man advantage, ranking sixth in the NHL with a 29.4% power play. Killing penalties has been a different story, with the Golden Knights sitting tied for 21st at 73.9%. That's an opening for Detroit, whose power play ranks 10th at 23.6%. Neither team has been particularly reliable on the penalty kill, so special teams could play a big role in Thursday's matchup.

Vegas heads into Thursday's matchup fresh off a 3-2 win in Pittsburgh on Nov. 3, continuing its road trip. Goals have been harder to come by lately, though, with just one of the Golden Knights' last five games clearing the 5.5-goal mark.

Vegas Golden Knights Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Daily Faceoff lists Adin Hill as the projected starter.

Recent goalie starts: Hill started Oct. 30 and Nov. 3; Carter Hart started Nov. 2.

Forwards: B. Howden, J. Eichel, M. Stone, I. Barbashev, W. Karlsson, M. Marner, T. Connelly, T. Hertl, B. Bowman, R. Lavoie, N. Dowd, M. Gatcomb.

Defence: B. McNabb, S. Theodore, J. Lauzon, R. Andersson, N. Hanifin, D. Coghlan.

Injuries and Availability

Victor Olofsson: Out with an undisclosed injury.

Parker Wotherspoon: On injured reserve with an upper-body injury.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 4 update and the Nov. 3 game. Injury information comes from Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Moneyline

Red Wings +120 | Golden Knights -141

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Red Wings' Last Five Games

Golden Knights' Last Five Games

Each team's score is listed first in the tables. Results include the deciding shootout goal, where applicable. Goals-per-game and shots statistics cover regulation and overtime, while over/under records include the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Once the bookmaker's margin is removed, the market gives Vegas a 56.3% chance of winning. Our estimate is a little lower at 53.6%, making this a closer contest than the odds suggest. The Golden Knights are still favourites, but not by much.

None of the available markets quite makes the cut. Detroit's +120 moneyline comes closest, offering a slim 0.9-percentage-point edge over break-even. The Red Wings +1.5 puck line at -222 is within half a percentage point of breaking even, while Over 5.5 at -133 falls 0.7 percentage points short. There's some room for better prices, but nothing worth betting at the current odds.

The season-long numbers lean toward the over, but Vegas has been playing much lower-scoring games lately, giving us reason to be cautious.

Recent meetings between Detroit and Vegas haven't offered much of a pattern when it comes to goals. Two of their last four matchups cleared 5.5, while the other two finished with three goals or fewer. The latest was a 4-3 overtime win for Vegas in Detroit on March 4. With such mixed results and only four games to go on, there's little reason to lean toward either side of the total.

Our model sees a 3-3 tie after regulation as the most likely individual scoreline at 5.0%. Among the listed final scores, Vegas edges ahead with a 3-2 win at 4.9%, just above Detroit's 4.8% chance of winning by the same score. We're going with a 3-2 Red Wings victory as our exact-score prediction, despite the model giving Vegas a slight statistical advantage.

Our model projects 3.05 goals for Detroit and 3.12 for Vegas, bringing the expected total to 6.17. That's above the 5.5-goal line, but a higher projection doesn't necessarily mean there's a good bet to be made.

We give Over 5.5 a 56.4% chance of hitting, just shy of the 57.1% needed to break even at -133. It's a narrow difference, but the price doesn't quite work in our favour, so we're passing on the total.

Detroit's moneyline is still the closest we've come to finding a bet, but +120 isn't quite enough. We'd back the Red Wings at +125 or better. Otherwise, we'll sit this one out.