Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 1 NBA Odds - May 19th, 830PM EST
|
Team
|
Moneyline
|
Point Spread
|
Total (O/U)
|
|
Boston Celtics
|
-400
|
-8.5 (-115)
|
O215.5 (-105)
|
|
Miami Heat
|
+310
|
+8.5 (-105)
|
U215.5 (-115)
|
Total Odds
The Boston Celtics were just the 11th-best team for converting overs this season, but they have really picked it up during the postseason, sitting fifth in that category for these playoffs. The over has hit in 10 of their 15 playoff games so far, including nine of their last 12.
The Miami Heat were just 19th in over percentage during the regular season, but they have been similarly lucrative for over bettors during the postseason, as their 75 percent over rate in 12 playoff games ranks second. When the over/under has been set at 215 or more, the over has hit all five times. The over looks like a great bet here, and the fact that it’s priced at only -105 means it’s offering more value than usual as well.
Boston Celtics Odds
Similar to their strategy during their loss in Game 1 of the Eastern Semis against the Philadelphia 76ers, the Boston Celtics tried to get away from their identity as a three-point shooting team here. Instead of hoisting up a bunch of threes with their bevy of long-range marksmen, they fell into the trap set by Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra, taking what the defense gave them instead of playing their own game.
In the third and decisive quarter, Miami won the fast break battle 9-3, the second chance points battle 10-5, and the points off turnovers battle 8-3. Those three areas are key for Boston because they like to play a lot faster than the Heat do, so when they get beaten at their own game like that, it’s a very bad sign.
The most worrisome thing, though, is that the Celtics played pretty well in Game 1 with six players in double figures and a combined 52 from their two stars. It’s really the defensive end where they had issues.
The offensive boards were also a good indicator, as the Celtics, specifically Robert Williams, dominated the offensive glass in the first half 6-2 but allowed the Heat to win that category 4-0 in the third quarter where they were outscored 46-25.
Miami Heat Odds
With the Miami Heat coming in and taking home court advantage away from their opponent right away it loads up a lot more pressure on the Celtics, who have continued to struggle at home during the playoffs, going 4-4 at the TD Garden so far this postseason.
While some were unsure if Jimmy Butler would be at 100 percent for Game 1 even with four extra days of rest for his ankle, those worries can all be put to bed now, as the playoffs’ leading scorer continued to shine with another impressive 35-point night. Butler was also a menace defensively, swiping six steals in Game 1, three of which came in the final six minutes.
But the reason the Heat won wasn’t because Jimmy put up what are starting to become his standard playoff numbers, it’s because everyone else contributed in a major way. In the second quarter Kyle Lowry caught fire for 13 points while running the second unit, which played a big role in keeping Miami in the game while Butler got some much-needed rest.
Bam Adebayo also had arguably his best game of the playoffs, putting in 20 points on 9-for-13 shooting while also snagging eight boards. Then there were Miami’s three-point minions: Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin put in 15 points apiece on a combined 56 percent shooting clip.
The ability of Adebayo and Butler to get in the paint and make the Celtics defense collapse led to some really easy three-point looks for guys who are already very quality shooters. Miami can’t expect to shoot 52 percent from deep every game, but they were hot enough in Game 1 to steal one.
Miami will obviously want to come in and take Game 2 as well to really put the Celtics in hot water, but this just seems like a game that Boston cannot afford to lose and we expect that to show in how hard both teams play on Friday night. Home teams that lose Game 1 of a playoff series have historically won Game 2 77 percent of the time, including a 6-0 record in these playoffs.
