Canadiens vs. Bruins Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 12

Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · TD Garden

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Montreal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins

Montreal hasn't lost a game in regulation in nearly three weeks. Unfortunately for the Canadiens, their next stop is a building where Boston has lost just once all season.

The Canadiens (11-3-4) visit the Bruins (13-4-1) on November 12, with both teams enjoying impressive runs. Boston has won four straight and allows just 2.28 goals per game, second-fewest in the NHL. Montreal is 8-0-3 over its last 11, most recently earning a point in a 2-1 overtime loss to Minnesota.

The Bruins have been particularly tough to beat at TD Garden, winning eight of their first nine home games. They'll also have the benefit of three days between games, while Montreal played Tuesday night.

Boston enters as a -125 favourite at bet365, with the Canadiens at +105 and the total set at 6.5 goals. The matchup favours Boston, but at -125, the sportsbook is asking us to pay more than our numbers justify.

Bruins moneyline at -125 comes closest to offering value, although we'd need -120 or better before recommending a bet.

Bruins Moneyline: Wait for -120 or Better

Boston has been getting the job done at both ends of the ice, scoring 3.72 goals per game while allowing just 2.28. That combination has made the Bruins difficult to beat, particularly when they get ahead and force opponents to chase the game.

Montreal won't make it easy. The Canadiens have gone 8-0-3 over their last 11 games, and their 6-1-1 road record suggests they won't be intimidated by a trip to Boston. Three overtime losses during that run also show how often they've managed to stay within reach, even when they haven't come away with the extra point.

Neither team has been particularly impressive on the power play. Boston ranks tied for 23rd at 18.3%, while Montreal sits 29th at 15.4%. With both teams struggling to capitalize on their chances with the man advantage, the game could come down to which side generates more offence at five-on-five.

Our scoring model gives Boston a 59.1% chance of winning, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 53.3%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 56.2%.

At -125, the Bruins need to win 55.6% of the time to break even, leaving approximately 0.6 percentage points of value. That's below our minimum required edge of 1.0 percentage point.

At -120, break-even falls to 54.5%, giving us approximately 1.6 percentage points of value.

Boston is our preferred side, but -125 doesn't leave enough room for a bet. We'd reconsider the Bruins moneyline at -120 or better.

See the current Bruins vs Canadiens odds at bet365

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Boston Bruins

David Pastrnak remains the focal point of Boston's offence, leading the Bruins with 24 points through 18 games. Morgan Geekie gives them another dangerous scoring option, while Elias Lindholm and Pavel Zacha provide experience down the middle. Boston isn't relying on Pastrnak to do everything, which has helped the Bruins put together four straight wins.

Boston has found goals throughout its lineup lately. Zacha scored twice in a 6-2 win over Pittsburgh, while Lindholm, Geekie, Michael Eyssimont and JJ Peterka all scored in Sunday's 4-1 victory against Florida. The Bruins have also shown they can grind out close games, beating Vegas in a shootout and Chicago in overtime during this stretch.

Jeremy Swayman gives Boston another advantage in goal, although Thursday's starter hasn't been confirmed. He stopped 40 of 41 shots against Florida, including 17 in the opening period, helping Boston protect an early lead against a dangerous Panthers attack.

Boston last played on November 8, giving the Bruins three full days off before Thursday's game. Montreal played Tuesday, so Boston should have fresher legs, particularly late in the game. Against a Canadiens team that has gone beyond regulation three times during its point streak, that extra rest could prove useful.

Boston Bruins Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Jeremy Swayman is the projected starter, with Michael DiPietro available as backup. Swayman started November 2 and 8, while DiPietro started November 5.

Forwards: J. Peterka, P. Zacha, D. Pastrnak, M. Eyssimont, F. Minten, M. Geekie, C. Mittelstadt, E. Lindholm, M. Khusnutdinov, T. Jeannot, M. Poitras, M. Kastelic.

Defence: H. Lindholm, C. McAvoy, N. Zadorov, W. Borgen, F. Brunet, M. Lohrei.

Injuries and Availability

• James Hagens: Injured reserve (back injury). Expected to miss several weeks after leaving the November 5 game against Pittsburgh.

Projected skaters reflect Boston's November 11 practice, when the Bruins retained the same combinations used against Florida. The starting goalie and final lineup remain unconfirmed.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal's 11-game point streak nearly ended Tuesday against Minnesota. The Canadiens trailed 1-0 with less than two minutes remaining before Nick Suzuki buried a loose puck in the crease to force overtime. They eventually lost 2-1, but it was another example of a team that refuses to go away quietly.

Lane Hutson continues to play a huge role in Montreal's attack. The 22-year-old defenceman has 18 points in 18 games, including 15 assists, and has recorded a point in six straight. He played nearly 27 minutes against Minnesota, fired six shots on goal and picked up an assist on Suzuki's tying goal. With Mike Matheson sidelined, Hutson is carrying plenty of responsibility on the blue line.

Jacob Fowler has also given Montreal some much-needed stability in goal. He stopped 22 of 24 shots against the Wild and has helped the Canadiens navigate Samuel Montembeault's absence. Fowler was named the NHL's Rookie of the Month for October, and his play has been a major part of Montreal's recent success.

The concern heading into Boston is whether the Canadiens can generate enough offence against another strong defensive team. They needed a late six-on-five goal to solve Minnesota, and Boston has been just as difficult to score against. Montreal has shown it can hang around against good opponents, but doing it again at TD Garden won't be easy.

Montreal Canadiens Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Jacob Fowler (confirmed by head coach Martin St-Louis on November 11). Jakub Dobes is the expected backup.

Forwards: C. Caufield, N. Suzuki, J. Slafkovský, Z. Bolduc, P. Danault, A. Texier, K. Dach, O. Kapanen, A. Newhook, C. Kreider, J. Evans, J. Anderson.

Defence: L. Hutson, N. Dobson, K. Guhle, A. Carrier, A. Xhekaj, A. Engström.

Injuries and Availability

• Mike Matheson: Lower-body injury. Returned to full practice Wednesday and will travel to Boston; game-day availability remains unconfirmed.
• Samuel Montembeault: Lower-body injury. Practised fully Wednesday but will not travel to Boston.
• Ivan Demidov: Lower-body injury; remains unavailable.
• Jake Evans: Dealing with a hand issue. Took a therapy day Wednesday and will travel; availability should be confirmed before puck drop.

Additional availability: Nick Suzuki took a therapy day on Wednesday but is expected to travel with the team.

Projected skaters are based on Montreal's November 10 lineup and November 11 team updates. Fowler is confirmed in goal, while the final defensive pairings and Matheson's availability remain subject to change.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Moneyline

Bruins -125 | Canadiens +105

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bruins' Last Five Games

Canadiens' Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Bruins vs. Canadiens Prediction

Montreal has gone 11 games without losing in regulation, but Boston looks well-equipped to end that run. The Bruins have been sharp defensively, Jeremy Swayman is coming off a 40-save performance against Florida, and they've had three full days to prepare for a Canadiens team that needed a late equalizer just to reach overtime against Minnesota.

That doesn't mean Montreal is an easy opponent. Nick Suzuki has been delivering in big moments, Lane Hutson is creating offence from the blue line, and the Canadiens have repeatedly found ways to stay in games. Boston will have to earn this one.

Our model gives the Bruins a 59.1% chance of winning, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 53.3%. Blending the two produces a 56.2% probability. At -125, Boston needs to win 55.6% of the time to break even, leaving just 0.6 percentage points of value.

The recent head-to-head results favour Boston slightly. The Bruins have won four of seven regular-season meetings over the past two seasons, including three of four at TD Garden. All four games in Boston reached seven goals, while the three in Montreal finished with five. That's an unusual split, but seven games isn't enough to build a total bet around.

Boston has the stronger case on the moneyline, but the price is a little too steep. Neither puck line nor the 6.5-goal total clears our betting threshold, either.

Our pick is Boston to win, but there's no recommended bet at current odds. We'd reconsider the Bruins moneyline at -120 or better.

Our model projects 3.39 goals for Boston and 2.81 for Montreal, an expected total of 6.20. A 3-2 Bruins victory is the most likely exact score at 7.5%, followed by a 3-2 Canadiens win and a 4-3 Boston win, both at 6.6%.

Montreal has made a habit of dragging games into overtime, but Boston has the defence and goaltending to keep the Canadiens from mounting another comeback. With the Bruins rested and playing at TD Garden, we're giving them the edge in what should be a tight Original Six matchup.

Our prediction is Bruins 3, Canadiens 2, with no recommended bet at current odds. We'd reconsider Boston's moneyline at -120 or better.

Boston is our pick to end Montreal's point streak. The problem isn't picking the Bruins. It's getting a price worth betting.