Wild vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 12

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto hasn't had much trouble scoring this season. Unfortunately, the Maple Leafs have been even better at letting opponents score.

The Leafs (8-10-2) host the Minnesota Wild (13-3-4) on Thursday, November 12, looking to end a four-game losing streak. Toronto averages 3.35 goals per game but allows 3.45, a dangerous combination against a Minnesota team that has surrendered an NHL-low 2.20 goals per night.

The Wild arrive with points in nine straight games, most recently beating Montréal 2-1 in overtime. Toronto, meanwhile, has lost three of its last four games by multiple goals, making Thursday another difficult test for a team struggling to keep games close.

Minnesota enters as a -167 favourite at bet365, with Toronto at +139 and the total set at 6.5 goals. The Wild have been the better team at both ends of the ice, but the puck line offers a more interesting betting decision than picking the outright winner.

Maple Leafs +1.5 at -185 comes closest to offering value, although we'd need -180 or better before placing a bet.

Maple Leafs +1.5 Puck Line: Wait for -180 or Better

Minnesota has been one of the NHL's toughest teams to beat, but backing the Wild to win by multiple goals is a different story. Toronto has lost by two or more goals just five times in 20 games, despite its defensive struggles and recent four-game skid.

The Leafs have enough offence to stay competitive, averaging 3.35 goals per game, with a power play converting at 28.1%, fifth-best in the league. Minnesota's defence has been outstanding, allowing just 2.20 goals per game, but Toronto doesn't need to win outright for this bet to cash. A one-goal loss, including in overtime or a shootout, would be enough.

There are reasons for caution. Three of Toronto's four consecutive losses have come by multiple goals, while Minnesota has won 10 of its 20 games by at least two. If the Leafs fall behind early, they'll have a tough time chasing the game against a Wild team that gives up so little.

Our scoring model gives Toronto +1.5 a 68.5% chance of covering, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 62.2%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 65.3%.

At -185, the puck line needs to cash 64.9% of the time to break even, leaving approximately 0.4 percentage points of value. That's below our minimum required edge of 1.0 percentage point.

At -180, the break-even probability falls to 64.3%, giving us approximately 1.1 percentage points of value.

Toronto +1.5 is worth watching, but there's no bet at -185. We'd reconsider at -180 or better.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Auston Matthews has been doing his part, leading Toronto with 11 goals and 28 points through 20 games. William Nylander has matched his 11 goals, while Jack Roslovic has chipped in nine goals and 20 points in 19 appearances. The Leafs still have plenty of scoring talent, even if their recent results suggest otherwise.

The bigger concern is in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled to find his form, posting an .881 save percentage and 3.47 goals-against average. Anthony Stolarz has been considerably better at .908 and 2.72, although neither has been confirmed as Thursday's starter. Against a Minnesota team that's been winning consistently, Toronto can't afford another rough night between the pipes.

John Tavares hasn't helped matters lately, going pointless in his last three games. Toronto needs more from its supporting forwards, particularly against a Wild team that rarely gives opponents much room to work with.

The Leafs have now lost four straight, three by multiple goals. But with Matthews and Nylander producing, there's still enough offence here to keep Minnesota within reach. Whether Toronto gets the saves to make that matter is another question.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky or Anthony Stolarz (starter unconfirmed).

Forwards: E. Cowan, A. Matthews, J. Roslovic, R. Tverberg, J. Tavares, W. Nylander, G. McKenna, N. Paul, D. Joshua, B. Duhaime, T. Blueger. Twelfth forward to be confirmed.

Defence: J. McCabe, D. Raddysh, O. Ekman-Larsson, T. Stecher, D. Mermis, C. Tanev.

Injuries and Availability: Morgan Rielly (lower body, day-to-day); Kirill Marchenko (lower body, injured reserve); Colton Sissons (lower body, week-to-week); Max Domi (back, injured reserve); Nick Blankenburg (upper body, injured reserve); Marshall Rifai (lower body, injured reserve); Elvis Merzlikins (shoulder, injured reserve); Miles Wood (long-term injured reserve).

Lineup Note: Zack MacEwen is day-to-day with a wrist injury after leaving the November 10 game. Cole McWard filled in as a fourth-line placeholder at Wednesday's practice.

Projected forwards are based on Toronto's November 11 practice. The twelfth forward, starting goalie and final combinations remain unconfirmed.

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov has been a nightmare for opposing defences, scoring 17 goals and 32 points in 20 games. He's also riding a nine-game point streak, with six goals and nine assists during that stretch. Toronto has struggled to keep opponents off the scoresheet lately, and giving Kaprizov time and space could make for another long night.

Quinn Hughes has been just as important from the blue line. His 27 points in 20 games rank second on the team, and his ability to move the puck quickly helps Minnesota get out of its own end and turn defence into offence. Matt Boldy has added 18 points, giving the Wild another dangerous option alongside Kaprizov.

Minnesota has also been getting excellent goaltending from Jesper Wallstedt. The young netminder owns a .925 save percentage and 1.93 goals-against average, and he stopped 27 shots in Tuesday's 2-1 overtime win against Montréal. Even when the Canadiens tied it late, Wallstedt gave the Wild a chance to finish the job.

The Wild are 7-0-2 over their last nine games and have won 10 of their 20 contests by multiple goals. That's the concern with Toronto +1.5: Minnesota doesn't need many chances to build a lead, and with Wallstedt playing this well, the Leafs may not get many opportunities to erase one.

Minnesota Wild Projected Lineup

Goalie: Jesper Wallstedt or Calvin Pickard (starter unconfirmed; Wallstedt projected).

Forwards: K. Kaprizov, J. Eriksson Ek, M. Boldy, B. Coleman, M. McCarron, B. Brink, M. Shabanov, D. Yurov, Y. Trenin, M. Foligno, R. Hartman, N. Foligno.

Defence: Q. Hughes, J. Brodin, J. Spurgeon, O. Maatta, M. Kiersted, Z. Bogosian.

Injuries and Availability: Brock Faber (skull injury, injured reserve); Filip Gustavsson (hip, injured reserve). Michael McCarron recently returned from an upper-body injury.

Projected skaters are based on Minnesota's November 10 game against Montréal and November 11 lineup reports. The starting goalie and final combinations remain unconfirmed.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

 

Maple Leafs' Last Five Games

Wild's Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Maple Leafs vs Wild Prediction

Minnesota is the better team coming into Thursday, and it's difficult to argue otherwise. The Wild have been getting excellent goaltending, Kaprizov is producing at an elite level, and their defensive play gives them a clear advantage over a Toronto team that's lost four straight.

But there's a difference between picking Minnesota to win and laying -167 on the Wild.

The market gives Minnesota a 59.9% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin. Our model is slightly less confident at 55.6%, producing a blended estimate of 57.8%. At -167, the Wild need to win 62.5% of the time to break even, leaving them roughly 4.7 percentage points short of value.

Toronto's moneyline at +139 doesn't offer enough value either. The Leafs have the forwards to make things uncomfortable for Minnesota, but their recent defensive play makes an outright upset difficult to back.

Minnesota has also won three of the last four regular-season meetings, including a 6-3 victory in Toronto on January 19. That was the only meeting to reach seven combined goals, though there's little reason to put much weight on those results heading into Thursday.

The puck line is the more appealing option. Toronto has lost by multiple goals just five times in 20 games, although three of those defeats have come during its current four-game losing streak. The season-long numbers favour the Leafs keeping it close, but their recent form makes that harder to trust.

Minnesota is our pick to win, but there's no recommended bet at current odds. We'd reconsider Maple Leafs +1.5 at -180 or better.

Our model projects 3.25 goals for Minnesota and 2.91 for Toronto, producing an expected total of 6.16. A 3-2 Wild victory is the most likely exact score at 7.6%, followed by a 3-2 Toronto win at 6.9%.

Minnesota's goaltending and defensive play should give it the upper hand, but Matthews and Nylander have enough scoring talent to keep Toronto in the game. The Leafs have struggled lately, although we're not convinced Minnesota will run away with this one.

Our prediction is Wild 3, Maple Leafs 2, with no recommended bet at current odds. We'd consider Toronto +1.5 at -180 or better.

Minnesota looks like the winner. Toronto might still be the better bet. At these prices, neither gets our money.