Avalanche vs. Senators Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 12

Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche

For two teams with identical records, Colorado and Ottawa are arriving at Thursday's matchup playing very different hockey.

The Avalanche (11-6-2) visit the Senators (11-6-2) on November 12, with Colorado coming off a 6-3 win in Toronto and a 4-0 shutout of Detroit. Ottawa has picked up points in three straight games, but its offence has struggled to generate chances, including just 11 shots in Tuesday's 3-2 overtime loss to Washington.

Colorado averages an NHL-best 4.11 goals per game and ranks third in shots at 30.4 per night. Ottawa has been more reliable defensively, allowing 3.00 goals per game, but keeping Nathan MacKinnon and company quiet will be a difficult assignment if the Senators spend another night without much offensive-zone time.

The Avalanche enter as -123 favourites at bet365, with Ottawa at +102 and the total set at 6.5 goals. Despite identical records, Colorado's offensive advantage gives us reason to question whether the Avalanche should be priced this close to even money.

Avalanche Moneyline: -123

Colorado has the kind of offence that can overwhelm opponents. The Avalanche lead the NHL with 4.11 goals per game, rank third in shots (30.4) and have Nathan MacKinnon leading an attack that has scored at least four goals in three of its last five games.

Ottawa has struggled to generate sustained pressure, averaging just 25.7 shots per game (26th) and managing only 22 combined shots in its last two outings. Against Colorado's firepower, spending long stretches defending could prove costly.

Special teams offer another advantage. Colorado's power play ranks 13th at 22.6%, facing an Ottawa penalty kill ranked 21st at 76.1%. Meanwhile, the Senators' power play sits 31st at 12.7%, limiting their ability to punish Colorado for penalties.

Our scoring model gives the Avalanche a 64.0% chance of winning, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 52.7%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 58.4%.

At -123, Colorado needs to win 55.2% of the time to break even, leaving approximately 3.2 percentage points of value, comfortably above our 1.0-point minimum.

Both teams have played just 19 games, so we're not treating the early-season numbers as gospel. But Colorado's offensive advantage and favourable special teams matchup make the price attractive.

We're taking Colorado on the moneyline at -123 and would play it up to -134.

Bet on Senators vs Avalanche: Avalanche Moneyline (-123)

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa has found ways to win games without generating much offence, but that approach could be difficult to sustain against Colorado. The Senators have won three of their last five, including tight victories over Buffalo and Utah, despite ranking 26th in shots per game (25.7).

Tim Stützle leads Ottawa with 23 points (9 goals, 14 assists) through 19 games, while Drake Batherson has contributed 9 goals and 18 points. Shane Pinto has added 7 goals and 14 points, giving the Senators another scoring option beyond their top two producers. Dylan Cozens has 10 points, but Ottawa needs more consistent contributions throughout the lineup to keep pace with Colorado's offence.

Ottawa's recent results show both sides of the problem. The Senators held Buffalo to one goal in a 2-1 victory and beat Utah 4-2, but managed just 11 shots against Washington in Tuesday's 3-2 overtime loss. They can defend well enough to stay competitive, although relying on that approach against Colorado leaves little margin for error.

Goaltending is another question. Linus Ullmark is dealing with a lower-body injury, leaving Samuel Ersson as the projected starter. Ersson has started Ottawa's last three games, and he'll likely need another strong performance if the Senators spend extended stretches defending MacKinnon and Colorado's top forwards.

Ottawa Senators Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Samuel Ersson is the projected starter, with Linus Ullmark's availability uncertain due to a lower-body injury.

Forwards: F. Zetterlund, T. Stützle, D. Cozens, N. Cousins, S. Pinto, D. Batherson, M. Amadio, R. Greig, C. Giroux, S. Halliday, H. Hodgson.

Defence: J. Sanderson, A. Zub, T. Chabot, J. Spence, T. Kleven, N. Matinpalo.

Injuries and Availability

• Linus Ullmark: Lower-body injury. Listed as day-to-day by Daily Faceoff, with his return date unconfirmed.
• Nick Cousins: Will miss approximately seven to 10 days with an upper-body injury after leaving Tuesday's game against Washington.
• Andre Burakovsky: Injured reserve (lower body); expected to remain out until at least November 27.
• Warren Foegele: Injured reserve (knee); expected to remain out until at least November 25.
• William Eklund: Injured reserve (ankle); expected to remain out until at least January 5.

The projected lineup contains 11 forwards and six defencemen. A 12th forward has not been confirmed, so the list remains incomplete rather than including an unverified player. Starting goalie and final combinations are subject to change.

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado's offence can make a game get away from an opponent in a hurry. The Avalanche have scored 10 goals across their last two outings, beating Detroit 4-0 and Toronto 6-3, with Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge. He has 30 points through 19 games, giving Colorado a game-breaking threat every time its top line hits the ice.

Cale Makar adds another dimension from the blue line. His ability to join the rush, move the puck through the neutral zone and create chances from the point makes Colorado difficult to contain with a defensive approach focused solely on MacKinnon. Martin Nečas provides another dangerous option up front, giving opponents more than one scoring threat to worry about.

The Avalanche haven't been nearly as convincing in their own end. They've allowed 3.05 goals per game, ranking 14th, and their recent 7-2 loss to Columbus showed how quickly things can unravel when they give up quality chances. Mackenzie Blackwood has helped steady things since, including a shutout against Detroit, but Colorado still gives opponents opportunities.

That makes Ottawa an interesting matchup. The Senators have enough talent to punish defensive mistakes, particularly through Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson. But if Colorado establishes its forecheck and forces Ottawa to spend long shifts defending, the Avalanche have the depth and puck movement to wear the Senators down.

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Mackenzie Blackwood is the projected starter, with Scott Wedgewood expected to serve as backup.

Forwards: A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, M. Nečas, G. Landeskog, N. Kadri, N. Roy, J. Schwartz, B. Nelson, T.J. Hughes, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, L. O'Connor.

Defence: B. Kulak, C. Makar, D. Toews, S. Malinski, N. Juulsen, B. Burns.

Injuries and Availability

• Josh Manson: Injured reserve (ankle). Placed on long-term injured reserve November 9; expected to remain out until at least December 27.
• Zachary L'Heureux: Injured reserve (upper-body injury). Expected to remain out until at least November 27.

Projected skaters reflect Colorado's November 10 lineup and Daily Faceoff's November 11 update. Blackwood has started the Avalanche's last three games, but Thursday's starter remains unconfirmed. Final combinations are subject to change.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Total Goals

Over 6.5: -103 | Under 6.5: -118

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Colorado Avalanche Last Five Games

Ottawa Senators Last Five Games

Each team's score is listed first in the tables. Results use official final scores, including the deciding goal in shootouts. Goals-per-game and shots figures cover regulation and overtime. Over and under counts include the deciding shootout goal.

Senators vs Avalanche Prediction

Ottawa deserves credit for its recent defensive play. The Senators held Utah to two goals and took Washington to overtime in a 3-2 loss, showing they can keep dangerous opponents in check. Colorado, though, brings a different level of offensive firepower, with MacKinnon and Makar capable of creating chances even against a stingy defence.

The market gives Colorado a 52.7% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin, while our blended estimate is 58.4%. That's enough separation to support the Avalanche moneyline at -123.

There are arguments for other markets. Colorado -1.5 at +210 shows a 3.7-percentage-point edge, while Over 6.5 at -103 offers approximately 2.4 points. But the puck line asks Colorado to win by two, and Ottawa has shown it can hang around in close games. The total is tempting given Colorado's scoring, although Ottawa has played four unders in its last five.

The recent head-to-head results also lean Colorado, which has won three of the last four meetings over the previous two seasons. Ottawa took the latest matchup 5-2 in January, but the current teams offer a better basis for Thursday's prediction than a handful of past meetings.

We're sticking with Colorado on the moneyline at -123, playable to -134. It gives us the edge we're looking for without needing the Avalanche to win by multiple goals.

Our model projects 3.92 goals for Colorado and 2.97 for Ottawa, an expected total of 6.89. A 3-2 Avalanche regulation win is the most likely regulation score at 4.5%, but when overtime and shootouts are included, Colorado's 4-3 victory becomes the most likely final score at 6.6%, followed by an Ottawa 4-3 win at 5.5%.

Ottawa has defended well enough lately to keep this competitive, but Colorado's scoring depth gives the Avalanche more ways to break through. We expect the Senators to make them work for it, with MacKinnon and company ultimately having enough offence to get the win.

We're taking Colorado's moneyline at -123, playable to -134. The Senators have shown they can hang with good teams. The Avalanche have shown they can put most types of teams away.