Jets vs. Stars Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 12

Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars

A 7-0 loss can send a team into a tailspin. Winnipeg responded by winning four straight and scoring 19 goals. Now comes a tougher test: finding a way through one of the NHL's stingiest defences.

The Jets (8-8-3) visit the Stars (10-5-2) on November 12, with Dallas allowing just 2.29 goals per game, third-fewest in the league. The Stars also surrender only 22.9 shots per night, ranking second, making life difficult for opponents trying to generate sustained offensive pressure.

Dallas has had four days to prepare and has won five straight regular-season meetings with Winnipeg, although four were decided by a single goal.

The Stars enter as -185 favourites at bet365, with Winnipeg at +153 and the total set at 5.5 goals. Dallas has the stronger defensive profile, but Winnipeg's recent form and ability to keep this matchup close make the puck line worth a closer look.

Jets +1.5 Puck Line: Wait for -160 or Better

Dallas has won five straight meetings with Winnipeg, but four were decided by a single goal. The Stars have had the Jets' number lately, although they've rarely blown them out. Winnipeg has also lost by two or more goals just five times in 19 games this season.

The Stars are difficult to break down, allowing only 22.9 shots per game, second-fewest in the NHL. But their own offence ranks tied for 22nd at 2.82 goals per night. Dallas can control a game without necessarily putting enough goals on the board to cover a puck line.

Winnipeg's recent scoring surge gives the Jets a better chance of staying within reach, even against a strong defensive opponent. The question is whether they can keep producing against a Dallas team that has had four days to prepare.

Our scoring model gives Jets +1.5 a 65.7% chance of covering, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 60.4%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 63.1%.

At -169, the puck line needs to cover 62.8% of the time to break even, leaving approximately 0.3 percentage points of value. That's below our 1.0-point minimum.

At -160, the break-even probability drops to 61.5%, giving us approximately 1.6 percentage points of value.

We like Winnipeg's chances of keeping this close, but there's not enough value at -169. We'd reconsider Jets +1.5 at -160 or better.

See the current Jets vs Stars odds at bet365

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Dallas Stars

Dallas has been one of the NHL's toughest teams to score against, and Jake Oettinger is a big part of that. The Stars have been particularly effective at keeping opponents away from dangerous areas, forcing them to work for clean looks rather than giving up easy chances in front of the net.

The Stars have plenty of offensive talent, even if their 2.82 goals per game (tied for 22nd) doesn't reflect it. Mikko Rantanen leads the team with 21 points in 17 games, while Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston give Dallas two more dangerous scoring options. The concern is consistency. Dallas scored six against Washington but managed just two in its latest game against Montreal.

Special teams have helped make up for those scoring struggles. Dallas ranks seventh on the power play at 27.5% and is tied for the NHL lead on the penalty kill at 89.7%. That's a considerable advantage against a Winnipeg team whose penalty kill sits 23rd at 73.7%.

Miro Heiskanen's upper-body injury is worth watching. Dallas can still defend without him, but losing its best puck-moving defenceman makes it harder to move cleanly out of its own zone. Against a Winnipeg team that's suddenly finding the net again, his absence could be felt at both ends of the ice.

Dallas Stars Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Jake Oettinger (projected). Casey DeSmith is available as the backup. The starter has not been officially confirmed.

Forwards: J. Benn, W. Johnston, M. Rantanen, J. Robertson, R. Hintz, A. Hyry, S. Steel, J. Hryckowian, T. Seguin, J. Kiviranta, R. Faksa, D. Perron.

Defence: T. Harley, N. Lundkvist, L. Bichsel, E. Lindell, T. Taylor, T. Myers.

Injuries and Availability

• Miro Heiskanen: Upper-body injury. Expected to remain out until at least November 14, although his return date has not been confirmed.
• Oskar Bäck: Injured reserve (finger); expected out until at least November 17.
• Kyle Capobianco: Injured reserve (leg); expected out until at least November 27.
• Matt Duchene: Injured reserve (abdomen); expected out until at least January 12.

Roster update: Dallas claimed goaltender Rémi Poirier off waivers from Washington on November 9.

Projected skaters reflect Dallas's November 7 lineup and Daily Faceoff's November 11 update. Oettinger remains the projected starter, but the final lineup and goaltending assignment are subject to change.

Winnipeg Jets

Kyle Connor has been doing his part all season. The Jets winger has 15 goals and 21 points through 19 games, including four goals during Winnipeg's current four-game winning streak. He's also averaging 4.26 shots per game, giving the Jets a consistent scoring threat even when the rest of the offence goes quiet.

The encouraging development is that Connor finally has some help. Dawson Mercer scored twice against his former team in Tuesday's 4-2 win over New Jersey, including the third-period winner. Cole Perfetti has 16 points in 19 games and has picked up five over his last three. Winnipeg's power play has also caught fire, scoring seven times during the four-game streak.

Getting Josh Morrissey back is another big lift. The Jets' top defenceman returned Tuesday after missing 14 games with an upper-body injury, immediately logging a team-high 24:05 and putting four shots on goal. His ability to move the puck and quarterback the power play gives Winnipeg something it badly missed during its nine-game winless stretch.

The concern remains at the other end. Winnipeg has allowed 3.50 goals per game, ranking 22nd, and its penalty kill sits 23rd at 71.7%. That's a dangerous combination against Dallas, particularly with the Stars converting 27.5% of their power plays. The Jets are scoring again, but they'll need to stay disciplined and give their goaltender more help if they want to extend the streak.

Winnipeg Jets Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Unconfirmed. Stuart Skinner is the projected starter, with Nico Daws also available. Skinner started November 5 and 8, while Daws started November 10.

Forwards: K. Connor, M. Scheifele, G. Vilardi, C. Perfetti, B. Yager, D. Mercer, A. Iafallo, A. Lowry, V. Björck, C. Koepke, M. Barron, I. Rosen.

Defence: J. Morrissey, D. DeMelo, D. Samberg, N. Pionk, M. Ferraro, T. Bauer.

Injuries and Availability

• Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured reserve (undisclosed injury); expected out until at least November 28.
• Nick Bjugstad: Injured reserve (pectoral injury); expected out until at least March 11.
• Elias Salomonsson: Out (personal reasons); expected to remain unavailable until at least November 30.

Roster update: Josh Morrissey returned November 10 after missing 14 games with an upper-body injury. He played 24:05 against New Jersey and is expected to remain in Winnipeg's top defensive pairing.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's November 11 update and Winnipeg's November 10 game. The starting goalie and final combinations remain unconfirmed.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Moneyline

Stars -185 | Jets +153

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Stars' Last Five Games

Jets' Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Stars vs Jets Prediction

Dallas has earned its status as the favourite. The Stars are one of the NHL's best defensive teams, Jake Oettinger has been sharp, and they've had four days to prepare for a Winnipeg club that's been playing every other night. The Jets are scoring again, but finding room against Dallas won't be nearly as easy as it was against Vancouver or New Jersey.

The recent meetings suggest another close game. Dallas has won five straight against Winnipeg, but four were decided by a single goal, including a 3-2 overtime victory on October 22. That's encouraging for anyone considering Jets +1.5, even if the Stars have consistently found ways to win these matchups.

The market gives Dallas a 62.2% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin, compared with our blended estimate of 60.8%. At -185, the Stars need to win 64.9% of the time to break even, so there's no value in backing them at that price.

The total isn't particularly appealing either. Winnipeg's games have reached six goals 12 times in 19 outings, compared with just five of 17 for Dallas. Those numbers pull in opposite directions, and neither side of the 5.5-goal line offers enough value to justify a bet.

We expect Dallas to win, but we're not laying -185 to find out. Winnipeg +1.5 is more interesting, although we'd need -160 or better before putting money on it.

Our model projects 3.12 goals for Dallas and 2.54 for Winnipeg, an expected total of 5.66. A 3-2 Stars victory is the most likely final score at 8.4%, followed by a 3-2 Jets win at 7.4%.

Winnipeg's offence has come alive, but Dallas has the defensive structure and special teams to slow it down. With Oettinger in goal and the Stars rested, we're expecting another tight game between two teams that rarely give each other much breathing room.

We're calling it 3-2 Dallas. Winnipeg has found its scoring touch, but the Stars have a habit of turning hot streaks into cold nights.