Mammoth vs. Golden Knights Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 11

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Utah has been scoring plenty of goals lately. Unfortunately, its opponents haven't had much trouble doing the same.

The Mammoth (10-7-1) visit the Vegas Golden Knights (12-5-2) on Wednesday, November 11, with Vegas riding a three-game winning streak. The Golden Knights have allowed just 2.63 goals per game, fifth-fewest in the NHL, while Utah is scoring and conceding an identical 3.50 per night.

The Golden Knights are -125 favourites at bet365, with Utah at +104 and the total set at 6.5 goals. Vegas has been the more reliable defensive team, but Utah's offensive production makes this an intriguing matchup.

Over 6.5 at -103 comes closest to offering value, although we'd need +105 or better before recommending a bet.

Over 6.5 Goals: Wait for +105 or Better

Utah has been involved in plenty of high-scoring hockey, with 10 of its 18 games reaching seven combined goals. The Mammoth average 3.50 goals per game, but their defensive struggles have made it difficult to turn that production into consistent wins.

Special teams could play a major role in pushing this game over the total. Utah owns the NHL's second-best power play at 37.1%, and Vegas has struggled to kill penalties, sitting 18th at 76.5%. The Golden Knights have a strong power play of their own, ranking ninth at 26.3%, while Utah's penalty kill has been even worse, ranking 27th at 69.6%. Both teams have the offensive weapons to punish those weaknesses.

The biggest obstacle to the over is Vegas's defence at even strength. The Golden Knights have allowed just 2.63 goals per game overall, fifth-fewest in the NHL, and only one of their last five games has reached seven combined goals. Utah may be accustomed to trading chances, but Vegas has been much better at limiting the damage when the teams are playing five-on-five.

Our scoring model gives Over 6.5 a 51.7% chance of hitting, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 48.4%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 50.0%.

At -103, the over needs to hit 50.7% of the time to break even, leaving us approximately 0.7 percentage points short of value. That's below our minimum required edge of 1.0 percentage point.

At +105, the break-even probability falls to 48.8%, giving us approximately 1.2 percentage points of value.

Over 6.5 is worth monitoring, but there's no bet at -103. We'd reconsider at +105 or better.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has won three straight, holding Pittsburgh, Detroit and Buffalo to just four combined goals. The Golden Knights haven't needed much offensive fireworks during that stretch, scoring nine goals themselves and leaning on their ability to protect leads.

Jack Eichel leads Vegas with 24 points in 19 games, while Mitch Marner has been the team's primary playmaker, recording 17 assists in just 17 appearances. Mark Stone leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals, giving them three legitimate offensive threats. But Vegas's recent success has been just as much about keeping opponents off the scoreboard as putting goals on it.

Shea Theodore remains an important part of Vegas's transition game, but losing Noah Hanifin to an upper-body injury takes another experienced puck mover out of the lineup. That could make it harder for the Golden Knights to contain Utah's skilled forwards.

Vegas has found a winning formula without needing much offence. The Golden Knights have allowed two goals or fewer in each of their three straight victories, and only one of their last five games has reached seven combined goals. Utah's power play could test that defensive form, but Vegas has shown it doesn't need a high-scoring game to come away with two points.

Vegas Golden Knights Projected Lineup

Goalie: Carter Hart or Adin Hill (starter unconfirmed).

Forwards: T. Connelly, J. Eichel, M. Stone, B. Howden, W. Karlsson, M. Marner, I. Barbashev, T. Hertl, V. Olofsson, B. Bowman, N. Dowd, M. Gatcomb.

Defence: B. McNabb, S. Theodore, J. Lauzon, R. Andersson, D. Coghlan. Sixth defenceman to be confirmed.

Injuries and Availability: Noah Hanifin (upper body, week-to-week); Parker Wotherspoon (upper body, return possible but unconfirmed).

Projected skaters are based on the Nov. 9 lineup update and Vegas's Nov. 8 game. Hanifin is excluded due to injury. The sixth defenceman, starting goalie and final line combinations remain subject to confirmation.

Utah Mammoth

Utah certainly isn't short on offensive talent. Clayton Keller leads the team with 24 points in 18 games, including 19 assists, while Logan Cooley has scored 11 goals and Nick Schmaltz has added nine. Even defenceman Mikhail Sergachev has contributed 20 points, giving the Mammoth plenty of scoring options beyond their top forwards.

The trouble is keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Utah allows just 25.1 shots per game, fifth-fewest in the NHL, yet gives up 3.50 goals per night. Neither Karel Vejmelka (.870 save percentage) nor Sebastian Cossa (.871) has provided much consistency in net. The Mammoth are doing a decent job limiting shot volume, but they're not getting enough saves.

That has made their recent results frustrating. Utah has lost three of its last four despite scoring at least three goals in four of its previous five games. Against Vegas, that puts considerable pressure on Keller, Cooley and the rest of the offence to keep producing.

Wednesday marks the final stop of Utah's six-game road trip. The Mammoth have had one additional day of rest, but they'll return home to face St. Louis on Thursday. They have the scoring talent to challenge Vegas, although their goaltending will need to improve against a Golden Knights team that's won three straight.

Utah Mammoth Projected Lineup

Goalie: Sebastian Cossa or Karel Vejmelka (starter unconfirmed).

Forwards: A. Lee, B. Hayton, C. Keller, L. Cooley, V. Trocheck, L. Crouse, J. McBain, N. Schmaltz, D. Guenther, M. Carcone, K. Stenlund, L. O'Brien.

Defence: M. Sergachev, M. Weegar, A. Duda, A. Peeke, D. Simashev, N. DeSimone.

Injuries and Availability: Dylan Guenther (day-to-day, availability uncertain); Kailer Yamamoto (upper body, injured reserve); Nate Schmidt (upper body, unavailable); John Marino (upper body, injured reserve); Maveric Lamoureux (shoulder, injured reserve).

Roster Update: Zac Jones was recalled from Tucson on Nov. 9 and could provide another option on defence.

Projected skaters are based on Utah's Nov. 7 lineup and subsequent roster updates. Guenther's availability, the starting goalie and final defensive pairings require confirmation before puck drop.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

 

Golden Knights' Last Five Games

Mammoth's Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Vegas has the stronger defensive record and enters Wednesday riding three straight wins, having allowed just four goals across those victories. Utah has more than enough scoring talent to challenge the Golden Knights, but its goaltending and defensive injuries make it difficult to trust the Mammoth against a team with Vegas's offensive depth.

The market gives Vegas a 53.1% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin. Our model is slightly more optimistic at 55.5%, with a blended estimate of 54.3%. At -125, however, the Golden Knights need to win 55.6% of the time to break even. That's roughly 1.2 percentage points short of value.

There's also some recent history between these teams. Utah split the six regular-season meetings evenly with Vegas over the past two seasons, including 6-0 and 4-0 shutout wins at T-Mobile Arena. The Golden Knights got the better of the Mammoth when it mattered most, winning their first-round playoff series in six games last spring.

That history doesn't offer much direction on the total. Only one of their six regular-season meetings reached seven goals, although two playoff games finished 5-4 in overtime. This season, Utah has been involved in considerably more high-scoring games than Vegas lately, which makes the total more interesting than either moneyline.

We like the potential for goals here, but Over 6.5 at -103 isn't quite worth the price. Neither team offers enough value on the moneyline or puck line, either.

Vegas is our preferred side, but there's no recommended bet at current odds. We'd reconsider Over 6.5 at +105 or better.

Our model projects 3.41 goals for Vegas and 3.05 for Utah, producing an expected total of 6.46, almost exactly on the 6.5-goal line. A 3-2 Vegas victory is the most likely final score at 6.9%, narrowly ahead of a 4-3 Golden Knights win at 6.6%.

Vegas has been the more reliable defensive team, and its recent form gives it the edge against a Utah side still struggling to get consistent goaltending. But with both teams capable of scoring on the power play, this could easily turn into a higher-scoring game than our exact-score prediction suggests.

Our prediction is Golden Knights 3, Mammoth 2, with no recommended bet at current odds. Over 6.5 becomes worth considering at +105 or better.

Vegas is our pick to win, but the total is where we'd look for a betting opportunity.