Mammoth vs. Canadiens Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 5

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Bell Centre

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Montreal enters with a 9-3-3 record, while Utah sits at 10-6-0. Both teams last played on Nov. 3, so neither has a rest advantage heading into Thursday. bet365 has Utah as a -123 favourite and the total set at 6.5 goals. Both clubs have made a habit of clearing that number this season, and our model sees another high-scoring game, favouring Over 6.5 at -108.

Over 6.5 Goals: -108

Over 6.5 goals is our best bet, so we're looking for at least seven goals between the two teams. Overtime goals count toward the total, and a shootout adds one goal to the winner's score. Even a game tied 3-3 after overtime would cash the over once the shootout winner is decided.

Our scoring model gives Over 6.5 a 61.1% chance of hitting, while the market's margin-free estimate is more conservative at 49.4%. Splitting the difference between those two projections gives us a final probability of 55.2%.

At -108, Over 6.5 needs to hit 51.9% of the time to break even. Our 55.2% projection gives us a 3.3-percentage-point edge, enough to justify a bet. It's not a huge advantage, though, and with Montreal and Utah having played just 15 and 16 games, respectively, we're still working with relatively small samples.

We'd back Over 6.5 at -115 or better, making the current -108 price a solid option.

Bet on Mammoth vs Canadiens: Over 6.5 Goals (-108)

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal averages 3.33 goals per game, ranking 13th in the NHL, while allowing 3.13, good for 15th. Goals haven't exactly been hard to come by in Canadiens games, with 10 of their first 15 clearing the 6.5-goal mark.

Montreal's power play has been another story. The Canadiens rank 30th in the league at just 13.0%, although Utah might be the opponent to help them turn things around. The Mammoth have struggled on the penalty kill themselves, operating at just 70.0%, tied for 25th in the NHL.

Montreal has won four of its last five games, with the lone setback coming in a 5-4 overtime loss to Winnipeg on Nov. 3. The Canadiens will look to keep that strong stretch going Thursday as they play their third straight game at home.

Montreal Canadiens Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not yet confirmed. Either Fowler or Dobes could get the start.

Recent goalie starts: Dobes started Oct. 29, while Fowler started Oct. 31 and Nov. 3.

Forwards: Caufield, Newhook, Slafkovsky, Kreider, Evans, Anderson, Bolduc, Danault, Texier, F. Xhekaj, Kapanen, Beck.

Defence: Hutson, Dobson, Guhle, Carrier, A. Xhekaj, Engstrom.

Injuries and Availability

Suzuki: Day-to-day with an upper-body injury. His availability for Thursday remains uncertain.

Dach: Day-to-day with an illness.

Matheson: Out with a lower-body injury. NHL.com reported an expected absence of approximately two weeks.

Demidov and Montembeault: Both listed on injured reserve by Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 4 update and Montreal's Nov. 3 game. Injury and availability information comes from Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports.

Utah Mammoth

Utah averages 3.56 goals per game, tied for seventh in the NHL, but has been considerably less impressive defensively, allowing 3.38 goals per game (23rd). The Mammoth aren't shy about putting pucks on net, either, ranking fourth in the league with 30.3 shots per game. That combination has helped push nine of their first 16 games over the 6.5-goal mark.

Utah's power play has been particularly dangerous, converting at 36.4%, the second-best rate in the NHL. Montreal's penalty kill presents a tougher test, though, ranking 11th at 81.7%. Something will have to give when those two units meet.

Utah has won three of its last five games, most recently edging Toronto 3-2 on Nov. 3. The Mammoth now head to Montreal for the fourth stop of their six-game road trip.

Utah Mammoth Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Vejmelka or Cossa could start.

Recent goalie starts: Cossa started Oct. 29 and Nov. 3; Vejmelka started Nov. 1.

Forwards: Keller, Hayton, Lee, Cooley, Trocheck, Crouse, Schmaltz, McBain, Guenther, Carcone, Stenlund, O'Brien.

Defence: Sergachev, Weegar, Schmidt, Peeke, Simashev, DeSimone.

Injuries and Availability

Yamamoto: Day-to-day with an upper-body injury.

Marino: Listed on injured reserve by Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 4 update and the Nov. 3 game. Availability information is from Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Moneyline

Canadiens +103 | Mammoth -123

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Canadiens' Last Five Games

Mammoth's Last Five Games

Each team's score is listed first in the tables. Results include the deciding shootout goal, where applicable. Goals-per-game and shots figures cover regulation and overtime, while over/under records include the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Once the sportsbook's margin is removed, the market gives Utah a 53% chance of winning, compared with our final estimate of 51%. That's a pretty narrow gap, and neither team offers enough of an edge to justify a moneyline bet.

We're staying away from the moneyline and puck line, with neither offering enough of an edge to justify a bet. Over 6.5 is the only market that clears our threshold, carrying a 3.3-percentage-point advantage and earning the lone recommendation under our one-bet-per-game approach.

Montreal's recent 2-0 and 2-1 victories offer a reminder that the over is far from a sure thing. The Canadiens have shown they're perfectly capable of winning without turning every game into a scoring contest.

Montreal has taken three of four meetings with Utah since the start of the 2024-25 season, and goals haven't been in short supply. Three of those games finished with at least seven goals, producing totals of eight, eight and seven. That's another encouraging sign for the over, although four games isn't much of a sample to draw conclusions from.

Our model sees a 3-3 tie after regulation as the most likely individual scoreline, with a 4.6% probability. For the final result, Montreal edges ahead with a 4-3 win at 4.1%, although Utah winning by the same score is almost as likely.

Our model projects 3.56 goals for Montreal and 3.54 for Utah, for a combined total of 7.10. That's comfortably above the 6.5-goal line, although the numbers leave plenty of room for a lower-scoring game.

Over 6.5 at -108 remains our pick, and we'd back it at any price down to -115.