Bruins vs. Penguins Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 5

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · PPG Paints Arena

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Bruins (11-4-1) head to Pittsburgh on Thursday to face the Penguins (5-8-2). Boston last played on Nov. 2, while Pittsburgh was in action Nov. 3. Despite the gap in their records, oddsmakers see this as a toss-up, with the Penguins at -110 and the Bruins at -111 on bet365. The total is set at 6.5 goals.

Boston +1.5 at -250 comes closest to meeting our betting criteria, but the price isn't quite there. For now, it's one to watch rather than a bet we'd recommend.

Bruins +1.5 Puck Line: Wait for -245 or Better

Boston +1.5 is the closest we've come to finding a bet. The Bruins can win outright or lose by a single goal and still cover the puck line. But at -250, the price isn't quite good enough for us to recommend it.

Our model gives Boston a 76.2% chance of covering +1.5, while the betting market puts that probability at 68.5% once the bookmaker's margin is removed. Combining the two gives us a final estimate of 72.4%.

At -250, Boston needs to cover the puck line 71.4% of the time just to break even. Our 72.4% estimate gives us an edge of roughly 0.9 percentage points, narrowly missing the 1.0-point minimum we require before recommending a bet. We're also working with a relatively small sample, with Boston having played 16 games and Pittsburgh 15.

We'd reconsider Boston +1.5 at -245 or better, where the break-even probability drops to roughly 71.0%. For now, the price isn't quite where we need it, so we're passing on the bet.

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is averaging 3.20 goals per game, ranking 16th in the NHL, but keeping the puck out of its own net has been a bigger problem. The Penguins are allowing 3.40 goals per game (24th), even though their shot totals are nearly even at 28.0 for and 27.7 against. That defensive vulnerability has contributed to some high-scoring games, with nine of Pittsburgh's first 15 finishing over 6.5 goals.

Pittsburgh has been much more effective killing penalties than capitalizing on its own power-play chances. The Penguins rank 10th in the NHL on the penalty kill at 82.1%, but just 23rd on the power play at 18.2%. That could pose a challenge for Boston, whose power play ranks 20th with a 20.0% conversion rate.

Pittsburgh heads into Thursday's matchup coming off a 3-2 loss to Vegas on Nov. 3. The Penguins have won just two of their last five games and will have only one full day off before facing Boston.

Pittsburgh Penguins Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Daily Faceoff lists Arturs Silovs as the projected starter.

Recent goalie starts: Silovs started Oct. 29 and Nov. 3; Sergei Murashov started Oct. 31.

Forwards: T. Novak, S. Crosby, R. Rakell, A. Kuzmenko, B. Kindel, E. Chinakhov, V. Koivunen, H. Lapierre, J. Brazeau, C. Dewar, B. Lizotte, N. Robertson.

Defence: S. Girard, E. Karlsson, S. Stastney, K. Korczak, D. Carlile, K. Letang.

Injuries and Availability

Evgeni Malkin: Day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

Bryan Rust: On injured reserve.

Ryan Graves: On injured reserve.

Trevor van Riemsdyk: On injured reserve.

Projected skaters are based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 4 update and the Nov. 3 game. Injury information comes from Daily Faceoff and CBS Sports.

Boston Bruins

Boston has been getting the job done at both ends of the ice, averaging 3.56 goals per game (tied for seventh in the NHL) while allowing just 2.38 (fourth-best). The Bruins are actually being outshot on average, 28.0 to 26.3, but their games haven't been especially high-scoring. Only five of their first 16 have finished over 6.5 goals.

Boston's special teams haven't quite matched its strong overall play. The Bruins rank 20th on the power play at 20.0% and 18th on the penalty kill at 76.4%. Pittsburgh hasn't been much better with the man advantage, converting just 18.2% of its chances (23rd). That leaves Boston's penalty kill facing a Penguins power play that has struggled to produce.

Boston heads into Thursday's matchup following a 3-2 shootout win over Vegas on Nov. 2, giving the Bruins three victories in their last five games. They'll also have an extra day of rest compared with Pittsburgh, a small scheduling advantage heading into the matchup.

Boston Bruins Projected Lineup

Starting goalie: Not confirmed. Daily Faceoff lists Jeremy Swayman as the projected starter.

Recent goalie starts: Swayman started Oct. 29 and Nov. 2; Michael DiPietro started Oct. 31.

Forwards: J. Peterka, P. Zacha, D. Pastrnak, M. Khusnutdinov, F. Minten, M. Geekie, C. Mittelstadt, E. Lindholm, J. Hagens, T. Jeannot, M. Kastelic.

Defence: H. Lindholm, C. McAvoy, N. Zadorov, W. Borgen, M. Lohrei.

Injuries and Availability

- Matthew Poitras: Listed as day-to-day by CBS Sports. NHL.com reported that he skated on Nov. 4 wearing a full protective face shield and was travelling with the team to Pittsburgh.

The projected lineup is incomplete, with 11 forwards and five defencemen listed. It is based on Daily Faceoff's Nov. 4 update and Boston's Nov. 2 game. Two players from the projection were omitted because they did not dress on Nov. 2. Their availability for Thursday requires confirmation.

Lines and starting goalies are subject to change. Check team reports before puck drop.

Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Penguins' Last Five Games

Bruins' Last Five Games

Each team's score appears first in the tables, with the deciding shootout goal included where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics cover regulation and overtime only, while over/under records account for the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market sees this as almost a coin flip, giving Boston a 50.1% chance of winning and Pittsburgh 49.9%. Our model leans a little further toward the Bruins at 53.8%. Combining the model and market probabilities brings our final estimate for Boston to 52.0%.

None of the available markets offers quite enough value for us to recommend a bet. Boston +1.5 at -250 comes closest, with an estimated edge of 0.9 percentage points over break-even, just shy of our 1.0-point minimum.

Under 6.5 at -111 also shows a small positive edge of 0.4 percentage points, but that's not enough either. The moneylines are even less appealing. Boston at -111 falls 0.6 points below break-even, while Pittsburgh -1.5 at +205 misses by a wider 5.2 points.

The two teams have shown very different scoring trends this season. Pittsburgh's games have gone over 6.5 goals more often than not, while Boston has stayed under that total in the majority of its matchups.

Boston has had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning four of six against Pittsburgh since the start of the 2024-25 season. Five of those games were decided by a single goal, and only one finished over 6.5 goals.

That lone high-scoring game was Pittsburgh's 5-4 overtime win on March 8. Six meetings aren't enough to draw firm conclusions, but the recent history points to a series of tight, relatively low-scoring contests.

Our model sees a 3-3 tie after regulation as the most likely individual scoreline at 5.0%. Among the listed winning outcomes, Boston's 3-2 victory leads at 4.9%, just ahead of Pittsburgh's 3-2 win at 4.6%. With the Bruins holding that slight edge, we're going with a 3-2 Boston victory as our final score prediction.

Our model projects 3.27 goals for Boston and 3.02 for Pittsburgh, bringing the expected total to 6.29, just below the 6.5-goal line.

Our 3-2 Bruins prediction would also land under, but that doesn't automatically make it a worthwhile bet. At -111, Under 6.5 offers an estimated edge of just 0.4 percentage points, short of our minimum requirement. The numbers lean toward the under, but the price isn't quite good enough for us to recommend it.

Boston +1.5 is still the closest we've come to finding a bet, but -250 isn't quite the price we're looking for. We'd reconsider at -245 or better. Until then, we'll pass.