Commanders vs. Eagles NFL Saturday Odds, Analysis, & Best Bets

The league probably thought the Washington Commanders (4-10) hosting the Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) would be a division-decider when they scheduled it. Whoops. Instead, what we’re getting here in the first of a pre-Christmas Saturday doubleheader is a Commanders team playing for draft picks against an Eagles team attempting to lock up the division in back-to-back years.
 
It would be the first time any team has won the NFC East in two straight years for two decades, the longest such streak in NFL history. Will the Commanders play spoiler? Read on for our analysis and best bet on the game!

NFL Saturday Week 16 - Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds & Picks - Dec. 20

All odds provided by Betway.

Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Analysis

These are two teams going at very different targets. One is looking to lock up the division, the other is looking to get a better draft pick. Or if you’re an optimist, the latter is trying to play spoiler.

And the Commanders have definitely played spoiler for the Eagles before. They shocked them during the regular season last year. Could they do it again this year despite their record not being nearly as good? When it comes to division games, anything can happen.

We don’t think it will, however. Philly should be able to take care of business and secure the NFC East here. The 7.0-point spread we’re getting from betting sites on the Eagles is not ideal. A touchdown spread for a road favorite in a division game is a recipe for disaster. But at the same time, can we really bet on a Commanders spread when they are the underdogs? They are 3-8 ATS in that scenario this season.

Instead, we’ll put our faith in a man who hasn’t deserved it for much of this season: Saquon Barkley. The Eagles’ running back has had a severe regression following his 2,000-yard campaign in 2024. But this could be a spot where he rediscovers his former glory.

Barkley has been seeing a little bit more of the ball over the last couple of weeks. He didn’t have 75+ rushing yards in back-to-back games all year until the last two games. And it’s no coincidence that this two-game span was also just the second time this year that Barkley has received 20+ carries.

After a jarring three-game losing streak, it seems the Eagles have realized the error of their ways and are returning to their running game roots. And Barkley should benefit from that against the Commanders, who own one of the worst rush defenses in the business.

For the year, they are allowing 136.6 yards per game on the ground, fifth-worst in football. Specifically, they give up over 109 yards per game to RBs, sixth-most in the NFL.

Over the last four weeks, they are giving up the ninth-most rushing yards per game. One would think that would represent an improvement. But nay. They are giving up 141 rush yards per game at a 4.8 yards per carry clip over the last month.

This defense can be gotten, and Barkley will get them.

Best Bet: Saquon Barkley Over 75.5 Rush Yards