Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Finals Game 4 Odds

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
10 Jun 23
Betting Magazine
News - NBA
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Finals Game 4 Odds

After taking home court advantage away from the Denver Nuggets with their win in Game 2, the Miami Heat were looking to take a stranglehold on the series in Game 3 at home. Alas, the Nuggets would not allow it, as they took control of Game 3 early in the second half and never relinquished it on their way to a 109-94 Game 3 win. Game 4 will be played on Friday, June 9th at FTX Arena in Miami with most NBA betting sites and betting apps listing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets as the moneyline favorites.

Highlights

  • Both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic put up 30-point triple doubles in Game 3
  • Jimmy Butler is scoring just 20.7 points per game in the Finals
  • 80 percent of teams up 2-1 in a series go on to win that series

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat NBA Odds - June 9th, 830PM EST

The Denver Nuggets had been in danger of letting this series get away after giving up home court in Game 2, but they took it right back in Miami in Game 3. The Miami Heat will be desperate, but with the way Jimmy Butler has been playing, it might be a tall order for the underdogs here. All odds provided by Betway.

Team

Moneyline

Point Spread

Total (O/U)

Denver Nuggets

-164

-3.5 (-111)

O210.5 (-111)

Miami Heat

+130

+3.5 (-111)

U210.5 (-111)

Denver Nuggets Odds Analysis

Honestly, what can you say about a guy like Nikola Jokic at this point. In Game 2 he tried to strap his team on his back and carry them with 43 points, but, realizing that Denver is now 0-3 in these playoffs when he scores 40+, he switched up the tactics for Game 3 and came back with 10 dimes in a 15-point win.

Which is not to say he put his scoring on hold, the Big Cevapi still had 32 points on the night to go with 21 rebounds. He got a lot of help from his top sidekick, point guard Jamal Murray, in Game 3 as well after Murray struggled to make an impact in Game 2.

Murray went 12-for-22 from the field with 34 points to lead the team as well as 10 boards and 10 dimes, the first triple double of this playoff run for the Canadian. Murray seemed to struggle with the length and athleticism of Jimmy Butler in Game 2, but the Heat were unable to keep Butler on Murray in Game 3 thanks to some clever movement by the Nuggets offense.

You usually know what you’re going to get from Jokic and Murray, but it’s the other guys that have been making such a massive difference for them. In Game 3 with most of Miami’s supporting cast struggling, rookie Christian Braun stepped up and hit seven of eight shots for 15 points to supplement the starters.

Aaron Gordon has also been excellent at being efficient and cutting to the basket on offense, playing lockdown on Miami’s crafty perimeter guys, and crashing the boards in a very admirable way. 

Unfortunately, Michael Porter Jr. has been benched in the fourth quarter for the last two games and has struggled mightily shooting the ball, going just 3-for-19 from long range in the series. It remains to be seen if coach Michael Malone will stick with the lanky wing moving forward or resign him to a bench role but either way, the Nuggets still found a way to win.

Miami Heat Odds Analysis

The Heat did a great job of adapting and making adjustments after losing Game 1, taking away Denver’s ball movement and forcing Nikola Jokic to score all the important baskets, which is a strategy that’s worked against the Nuggets during this playoff run.

They were unable to maintain that strategy in Game 3, however, as Denver and coach Michael Malone were able to make adjustments of their own that Miami coach Erik Spoelstra was unable to counter in time. All of those supporting characters that were doing such a great job in the first three series of the playoffs in terms of supporting Jimmy Butler have essentially vanished.

Caleb Martin, the darling of the Eastern Conference Finals, has taken just 19 shots on a 32 percent clip from the field, Max Strus has gone frigid shooting 19 percent from the field, Duncan Robinson has made just eight shots all series, and even Gabe Vincent, who played very well in the first two games, hit a wall in Game 3, going 2-for-10.

Making matters worse is the fact that Butler seems to be utterly and completely out of gas. He’s averaging just 20.7 points on 42 percent shooting in the Finals after averaging 28.5 on 48 from the floor in the previous three rounds. Whether it’s fatigue, Aaron Gordon’s pesky defense, or that ankle injury he suffered against the Knicks, who knows, but this isn’t the Playoff Jimmy we came to know and love over the past month and a half.

Bam Adebayo has been a lone bright spot for Miami in this series, putting up 23 points and 13 boards, including over a third of his team’s offensive rebounds. Bam can’t do it alone, however, so Spoelstra will have to find a way to get his three-point snipers back on track, or else this will be a gentleman’s sweep.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.