Capitals vs. Senators Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 10

Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Washington has scored plenty of goals this season. The problem is, the Capitals have been almost as generous at the other end.

Washington (9-6-0) averages 3.53 goals per game, eighth in the NHL, but allows 3.40. Ten of its first 15 games have reached seven combined goals, including four of the last five. When the Capitals score, their opponents have usually been finding ways to answer.

Ottawa (11-6-1) presents an interesting test. The Senators have allowed just three goals across their last two wins, and only six of their 18 games have reached seven goals. They also draw the second-most power plays in the league, giving them opportunities to punish Washington's defensive lapses.

The Senators are -133 favourites at bet365, but we're more interested in the total. Over 6.5 goals at +105 is our preferred bet, with Washington's scoring ability and defensive struggles giving this matchup a chance to produce another busy night for both goaltenders.

Over 6.5 Goals: +105

Washington has been a difficult team to trust defensively. The Capitals average 3.53 goals per game, eighth in the NHL, while allowing 3.40. Four of their last five games have reached seven goals, including a 6-5 loss to Dallas and a 4-3 win over Florida.

Ottawa could also get its chances on the power play. The Senators draw 3.78 power plays per game, second-most in the NHL, although their 13.2% conversion rate ranks 31st. They haven't been making opponents pay often enough, but Washington's penalty kill (76.5%) gives them a chance to improve on that Tuesday.

The biggest concern is Ottawa's recent defensive form. Only six of its 18 games have reached seven goals, and the Senators have allowed just three goals across their last two wins. Washington may need to do much of the scoring to push this total over.

Our scoring model gives Over 6.5 a 55.2% chance of hitting, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 46.8%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 51.0%.

At +105, the over needs to hit 48.8% of the time to break even, leaving an estimated 2.2-percentage-point edge, comfortably above our 1.0-point minimum.

Washington's recent results make a strong case for goals, but Ottawa's lower-scoring games are a reminder that this isn't a runaway betting opportunity. The price matters, particularly with the Senators showing they can keep opponents in check.

Over 6.5 goals at +105 is our best bet, playable at +100 or better.

Bet on Capitals vs Senators: Over 6.5 (+105)

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa hasn't been as explosive as Washington, averaging 3.11 goals per game (tied for 16th), but the Senators have the talent to trouble a Capitals defence allowing 3.40 goals per night.

Tim Stützle leads Ottawa with nine goals and 23 points through 18 games, while Drake Batherson has also scored nine times. Shane Pinto adds another threat down the middle, giving the Senators several ways to attack Washington's struggling defence.

The power play remains a frustration. Ottawa regularly draws penalties but hasn't been converting enough of those chances. Washington's penalty kill has been inconsistent, making Tuesday an opportunity for the Senators to improve with the extra skater.

The concern for our over is Ottawa's recent defensive form. The Senators have allowed just three goals across wins over Buffalo and Utah, and only six of their 18 games have reached seven combined goals.

Ottawa also averages just 25.7 shots per game, among the lowest totals in the NHL. The scoring talent is there, but the Senators haven't consistently generated enough shots to make seven-goal games a regular occurrence.

Ottawa Senators Projected Lineup

Goalie: Linus Ullmark (projected, unconfirmed); Samuel Ersson (backup).

Forwards: F. Zetterlund, T. Stützle, D. Cozens, N. Cousins, S. Pinto, D. Batherson, R. Greig, C. Giroux, M. Amadio, S. Blais, S. Halliday, P. Tomasino.

Defence: J. Sanderson, A. Zub, T. Chabot, J. Spence, T. Kleven, N. Matinpalo.

Injuries: Andre Burakovsky (IR, lower body, out until at least Nov. 27), Warren Foegele (IR, knee/lower body, out until at least Nov. 25), William Eklund (IR, ankle, out until at least Jan. 5).

Ullmark is a projected starter but has not been confirmed. Ridly Greig's availability also remains subject to confirmation.

Washington Capitals

Washington has had little trouble finding goals, averaging 3.53 per game (eighth in the NHL). Keeping opponents from answering has been the bigger problem, with the Capitals allowing 3.40 per night.

Alex Tuch has been Washington's biggest scoring threat, leading the team with 11 goals in 15 games. Jordan Kyrou has added four goals and eight assists over his last 10, while Dylan Strome continues to provide playmaking through the middle. Interestingly, Alex Ovechkin has managed just one goal through 15 games, making Washington's offensive production even more impressive.

The Capitals have been less convincing defensively. They've allowed at least three goals in four of their last five games, including six against Dallas and five against Minnesota. That's a concern against an Ottawa team with several capable finishers.

Washington's power play has also been relatively quiet, converting 20.0% of its opportunities. The Capitals have largely relied on their five-on-five scoring rather than special teams to produce goals.

With Washington finding the net regularly but struggling to protect its own, there's a good chance Ottawa gets its share of scoring opportunities Tuesday.

Washington Capitals Projected Lineup

Goalie: Logan Thompson (projected, unconfirmed); Charlie Lindgren (backup).

Forwards: A. Tuch, D. Strome, J. Kyrou, A. Protas, P. Dubois, T. Wilson, A. Ovechkin, J. Sourdif, A. Beauvillier, B. Jenner, I. Protas, R. Leonard.

Defence: J. Chychrun, M. Roy, M. Fehérváry, T. Liljegren, C. Hutson, J. St. Ivany.

Injuries: Vincent Desharnais (IR, abdomen, out until at least Dec. 5), Rasmus Sandin (IR, knee, skating without contact but not cleared to return).

Thompson is projected to start, but Washington has not confirmed its starting goaltender. Final forward lines and defensive pairings are also subject to change.

Moneyline

Senators -133 | Capitals +112

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Ottawa Senators' Last Five Games

Washington Capitals' Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while the over/under records reflect the additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Ottawa has been excellent at home, winning six of eight games at the Canadian Tire Centre. Washington, meanwhile, has played just four road games all season. The Capitals have done most of their scoring in familiar surroundings, so Tuesday presents a different challenge.

The Senators deserve to be favourites, but the price is another matter. The market gives Ottawa a 54.8% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin, compared with our blended estimate of 52.3%. At -133, Ottawa needs to win 57.1% of the time to break even. That's too expensive for our model.

Washington +112 and Capitals +1.5 at -222 come closest among the remaining sides, but neither clears our minimum edge requirement.

The total is more interesting. Washington has reached seven goals in 10 of its 15 games, compared with six of 18 for Ottawa. Four of the last six meetings have also cleared 6.5, although we wouldn't put much weight on a sample that small.

Ottawa's ability to keep games close is worth respecting, especially with Linus Ullmark potentially returning in goal. But Washington has been scoring enough to challenge that defensive record, while allowing opponents plenty of goals themselves. The moneylines don't offer enough value. Over 6.5 at +105 does.

Our model makes a 3-3 tie the most likely regulation scoreline at 4.8%. Among final results, Ottawa 4-3 and Washington 4-3 are tied at 6.5%, narrowly ahead of 3-2 finishes at 6.3%.

The projected goals are almost identical: 3.34 for Ottawa and 3.35 for Washington. That's 6.69 combined, just above the 6.5-goal line.

Ottawa has home ice and the stronger recent defensive results, but Washington's offence should give the Senators plenty to handle. The Capitals have also been conceding enough that Ottawa won't necessarily need an exceptional offensive performance to score three or four.

Senators 4-3 is our exact-score prediction, but Over 6.5 goals at +105 is the bet, playable at +100 or better. We don't need to pick the right winner. We just need both teams to do enough damage on the scoreboard.