Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds and Exact Score for Nov. 10

Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Colorado can score with just about anyone in the NHL. Winning away from home has been another matter.

The Avalanche arrive in Toronto averaging 4.00 goals per game, third in the league, yet they've lost five of eight on the road while allowing 3.75 goals per game. Now they face a Maple Leafs team that has surrendered 11 goals during a three-game losing streak. Defensive stability isn't exactly the calling card for either side heading into Tuesday.

Toronto (8-9-2) has its own offensive weapons, including a power play converting at 28.6%, tied for fifth in the NHL. But the Leafs are playing their third game in four nights, while Colorado (10-6-2) comes in with two days off.

The Avalanche are -169 favourites at bet365, but their road struggles make that a tough price to justify. With both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities, Over 6.5 goals at -119 looks like the better bet.

Over 6.5 Goals: -119

Colorado hasn't needed much help turning games into high-scoring affairs. Twelve of its first 18 have reached seven goals, including five of eight on the road. The Avalanche can fill the net, but they've also allowed 3.75 goals per game away from home. It's a combination that has made their road games particularly attractive for totals bettors.

Toronto's defence isn't offering much resistance, either. The Leafs allow 3.32 goals per game (20th in the NHL) and surrender 29.6 shots per night (27th). That's a tough matchup against a Colorado offence generating 30.6 shots per game, the third-highest average in the league. Toronto's power play, converting at 28.6%, also gives the Leafs a chance to contribute offensively.

Our scoring model gives Over 6.5 a 59.3% chance of hitting, compared with the market's margin-free estimate of 51.8%. Blending the two produces a final probability of 55.6%.

At -119, the over needs to hit 54.3% of the time to break even. Our estimated edge of approximately 1.2 percentage points narrowly clears the 1.0-point minimum. There's value here, but not much room for a worse price.

The biggest concern is Toronto's offence. The Leafs have scored just four goals in three games, and their last two contests finished with six and four combined goals. Colorado can do plenty of damage, but asking one team to carry a seven-goal total is a tall order.

Over 6.5 goals at -119 is our best bet, playable at -120 or better. Seven combined goals get us there, including a deciding goal added in overtime or a shootout.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs Avalanche: Over 6.5 Goals (-119)

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto's problems go beyond a three-game losing streak. The Leafs have scored just four goals while conceding 11 during that stretch, and their 4-6-1 home record comes with a 36-28 scoring deficit. They're struggling to keep pucks out without producing enough offence to make up the difference.

The scoring talent is still there. Auston Matthews has 11 goals and 27 points through 19 games, while William Nylander scored twice in Toronto's 6-3 win over Colorado on Oct. 10. The Leafs have already shown they can hurt this Avalanche team. The challenge is rediscovering that offence after being shut out by New Jersey on Sunday.

The injury situation makes that harder. Morgan Rielly missed Sunday's game, Jack Roslovic was a late scratch, and Colton Sissons left with a lower-body injury. Chris Tanev also sat out for maintenance. That's a concerning collection of absences against an Avalanche attack averaging four goals per game.

Toronto's power play remains its best counterpunch, converting at 28.6%, tied for fifth in the NHL. Colorado's penalty kill ranks 14th at 78.2%, giving the Leafs an opportunity to generate offence with the man advantage. But they'll need more than a couple of power-play chances if their defensive struggles continue.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

Goalie: Unconfirmed. Sergei Bobrovsky or Anthony Stolarz.

Forwards: E. Cowan, A. Matthews, C. Sissons, G. McKenna, J. Tavares, W. Nylander, D. Joshua, N. Paul, V. Lettieri, B. Duhaime, T. Blueger, Z. MacEwen.

Defence: J. McCabe, D. Raddysh, O. Ekman-Larsson, T. Stecher, D. Mermis, C. McWard.

Injuries and Availability: Morgan Rielly (lower body), Jack Roslovic (lower body) and Colton Sissons (lower body) have uncertain availability following Toronto's Nov. 8 game. Chris Tanev missed that game for maintenance. Kirill Marchenko, Marshall Rifai, Miles Wood and Max Domi remain on injured reserve.

This projected lineup is based on Toronto's most recent game and remains subject to change. Sissons is included provisionally after leaving Sunday's game. The starting goalie and final lines have not been confirmed.

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado's offence has been one of the NHL's toughest to contain, averaging 4.00 goals and 30.6 shots per game, both third in the league. Nathan MacKinnon leads the charge with 30 points in 18 games, while Martin Necas has added 23. The Avalanche have enough scoring talent to punish defensive mistakes, something Toronto can ill afford right now.

That firepower was on display in Saturday's 4-0 win over Detroit. Necas scored twice and added two assists, while MacKinnon and Cale Makar each recorded three points. It was an impressive response after Colorado had surrendered seven goals to Columbus earlier in the week.

The concern is what happens away from Denver. Colorado is just 3-5-0 on the road, allowing 3.75 goals per game. Even with all that offensive talent, the Avalanche haven't consistently kept opponents off the scoreboard.

Tuesday opens a four-game road trip through Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Utah. Against a struggling Leafs defence, Colorado should have opportunities to score. Whether it can tighten things up at the other end is a different question.

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lineup

Goalie: Unconfirmed. Mackenzie Blackwood is projected to start, with Scott Wedgewood also available.

Forwards: A. Lehkonen, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas, G. Landeskog, N. Kadri, N. Roy, J. Schwartz, B. Nelson, T.J. Hughes, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, L. O'Connor.

Defence: B. Kulak, C. Makar, D. Toews, S. Malinski, N. Juulsen, B. Burns.

Injuries and Availability: Cale Makar left practice early on Nov. 8 as a precaution, and his availability for Tuesday is questionable. Josh Manson remains sidelined with an ankle injury, while Zachary L'Heureux is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury.

Colorado's projected lineup is based on its Nov. 7 game and available lineup reports. Blackwood is the projected starter, but the Avalanche have not confirmed their goalie or final lines.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs +144 | Avalanche -169

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Odds from bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Maple Leafs Last Five Games

Avalanche Last Five Games

Scores are listed with each team's goals first, including the deciding shootout goal where applicable. Goals-per-game averages and shot statistics exclude shootout results, while over/under records reflect any additional goal awarded to the shootout winner.

Colorado deserves to be favoured, but Toronto has already shown it can give the Avalanche problems. The Leafs won 6-3 in Denver on Oct. 10, and they've taken three of the last five meetings. Three of those games also reached seven goals, although five head-to-head results aren't much to build a betting case around.

The Avalanche have the stronger offence and arrive off a convincing shutout of Detroit. Toronto, meanwhile, has lost three straight and struggled at both ends of the ice. Colorado should generate chances against a Leafs defence allowing nearly 30 shots per game, but its own road struggles leave Toronto with opportunities to stay in the game.

The market gives Colorado a 60.5% chance of winning after removing the bookmaker's margin, compared with our blended estimate of 58.1%. The Avalanche are still the likelier winner, but at -169, the moneyline requires a 62.8% win rate just to break even. That's too expensive for our projection.

Toronto +1.5 at -167 also qualifies, offering an estimated 1.1-percentage-point edge. But with the Leafs struggling to score and Colorado capable of putting up goals in bunches, we're sticking with Over 6.5 at -119 as the stronger play.

Our model's most likely single scoreline is a 3-3 tie at 4.6%, but Colorado is the likelier winner, and 4-3 is the most likely Avalanche victory at 4.3%.

The model projects 3.67 goals for Colorado and 3.31 for Toronto, a combined 6.98 against the 6.5 line. The Avalanche have the firepower to exploit Toronto's defensive struggles, but their own road record suggests the Leafs won't necessarily go quietly.

Our prediction is a 4-3 Colorado win, with Over 6.5 goals at -119 the recommended bet, playable at -120 or better. Neither team has made a particularly convincing case for a defensive masterpiece, and for once, that's exactly what we're looking for.