Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Indiana vs USC Odds
Indiana are sizeable 7.5-point home favorites at football betting sites, with their moneyline priced at -334. USC offers a +229 return to pull off the upset, while the O/U sits at 50.5 points.
These programs have met just four times previously, with USC winning every encounter. The Trojans secured a 28-7 victory in their last meeting in 1982, although this will be their first matchup as Big Ten opponents.
Indiana vs USC Analysis
Indiana has enjoyed another outstanding campaign after winning it all last season, sitting at 8-1 overall and 5-1 in Big Ten play. The defending national champions have won two straight games since suffering their only defeat to Ohio State, although both victories required overtime. Their defense has been particularly impressive, allowing just 12.4 points and 259.2 total yards per contest. The Hoosiers have also been outstanding against the run, surrendering only 75.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth nationally.
However, Indiana's offense has struggled lately, and there's uncertainty at quarterback. Josh Hoover has thrown for 1,860 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, but his accuracy has dipped considerably over the last three games. Cignetti replaced him with Grant Wilson at halftime against Minnesota, and the veteran helped lead the Hoosiers to a 23-16 overtime victory. Wilson threw the winning touchdown to Charlie Becker, who finished with eight receptions for 149 yards. Cignetti has yet to name a starter for Saturday, making this a situation worth monitoring.
USC sits at 7-2 overall and 4-2 in conference action. The Trojans have one of the nation's most dangerous passing attacks, averaging 294.6 yards through the air per game. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been outstanding, throwing for 2,525 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. USC are also scoring 32.4 points per contest, giving them plenty of offensive firepower heading into this difficult road matchup.
The Trojans delivered their biggest victory of the season on October 31, stunning No. 2 Ohio State 30-18 at the Coliseum. Maiava threw for 222 yards and a touchdown, while freshman receiver Trent Mosley reeled in five catches for 101 yards and a score. USC's defense also stepped up tremendously, keeping the Buckeyes out of the end zone until the final minutes. However, Indiana present another difficult test, especially with the Hoosiers allowing fewer than 13 points per game.
Indiana vs USC Picks
Indiana has been dominant defensively, but asking them to cover more than a touchdown against USC feels like a tall order. The Hoosiers have needed overtime in consecutive games, and their uncertainty at quarterback is concerning against a Trojans squad coming off a massive victory over Ohio State.
Maiava gives USC a significant advantage through the air, and the Trojans have already shown they can compete with the nation's best teams. Indiana should still have enough talent to win at home, but I expect a close contest that comes down to the final possessions.
Pick: USC +7.5 (-120)/TonyBet
