Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Marlins vs Mets Odds
The Mets are a -136 home moneyline favorite for the series opener at MLB betting sites. The Marlins are priced as a +104 underdog, despite being 8.5 games ahead of New York in the NL East standings. The total is set at a relatively low 7.5 runs, and the Over has cashed in two of the last three.
New York swept Miami in late May, but just a week prior to that, the Fish brought out the brooms against their divisional rivals.
Marlins vs Mets Analysis
Playing in the National League East is never easy, but the Marlins remain in the NL Wild Card race. While they’re eight games out of first place in the division, Miami trails the Philadelphia Phillies by only two games for the final Wild Card berth. The Fish are sitting at 55-54, and enter Thursday’s game in the midst of a three-game winning streak. In fact, they just swept the Phils, which is a huge outcome considering they’re chasing them for a postseason spot.
Philadelphia blew a six-run lead in Wednesday’s series finale, with Miami ultimately winning 8-6. Griffin Conine smacked a go-ahead pinch-hit home run in the eighth to seal the victory for the Fish. It was a gritty performance from the Marlins, who snapped a 12-game losing streak by sweeping Philadelphia. They’ve found momentum again, and Miami will be hoping Eury Perez can give them a quality start in Flushing. The righty has performed well lately, pitching into the sixth inning or later in four straight outings, and he hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in a single start during that span.
The Mets have been one of the most disappointing teams in the Majors this season. A horrible first half quickly put them out of the playoff conversation, and New York is 10.5 games back in the Wild Card race. It will take a miracle for this ball club to play October baseball this fall. However, they’ve been playing better lately, winning three straight entering the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves. . The Mets sit at 46-62 on the season, and in last place in the NL East.
Offensively, they’ve turned a corner. NY has an impressive 127 wRC+ over their last five games while posting a .219 ISO. That’s a mile better than their season average of 94 wRC+. Perez isn’t an easy arm to face, but he has been vulnerable at times on the road. Nolan McLean gets the call on the hill for the series opener, and he’s been absolutely lights out. The youngster sports a 2.25 FIP across his last five outings, allowing just 0.30 HR/9.
Marlins vs Mets betting trends to know
- Mets are 4-0 in McLean’s last four starts against the NL East.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last six home games against teams with a losing record.
- The Under is 5-1 in the Marlins’ last six games as a favorite.
- The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Mets and Marlins.
Marlins vs Mets Picks
I really like how McLean is throwing the baseball, and you can see he’s had no shortage of success against NL East opponents. The Mets are also arguably in their best offensive form of the year. While Miami did just dominate the Phillies, they’re well below the league average offensively over the last week. I’ll ride the Mets moneyline.
Pick: Mets -136 /Tonybet
