Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Mets vs Braves Odds
The first-place Braves head into the rubber match as a -162 moneyline favorite at MLB betting sites. The Mets are priced at +125 odds. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, New York has actually won five of the last six meetings against Atlanta, despite sitting far below them in the NL East standings.
Mets vs Braves Analysis
It’s been a wildly disappointing season for one of the richest rosters in baseball. The Mets are essentially out of playoff contention already, sitting 18.5 games back of first place in the division, and 11 games out of the National League Wild Card picture. A horrible start to the campaign quickly put New York out of the postseason conversation, and it’s proven to be too steep a hill to climb.
But the Mets are playing better lately. Ahead of Tuesday’s matchup, they have won six of their last seven games, sweeping the Cleveland Guardians and taking two out of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The offense has woken up as well, posting an impressive 143 wRC+ over the last week and a .233 ISO. On the hill, Thornton hasn’t been great lately, posting a 5.26 FIP over his previous two starts. The Mets will need to bring their best offensively to give him support.
The Braves are the cream of the crop in the National League after a down year in 2025. Atlanta is 7.5 games clear in first place in the NL East, and they’re one of the most well-rounded ball clubs in the Majors. Walt Weiss’s group is top-five in nearly every major offensive category, and fifth in team ERA as well. Acquiring Mahle at the trade deadline was a strong move that should bolster their rotation.
The right-hander had an unforgettable Atlanta debut last week, tossing six scoreless frames against the New York Yankees while striking out nine. In fact, Mahle has thrown a pair of scoreless starts over the last couple of weeks. His track record against the Mets is solid as well, holding them to a .237 average across 38 at-bats. This will be Mahle’s home debut with the Braves.
Mets vs Braves Betting Trends
- Over is 6-0-1 in the Mets’ last seven road games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in the Mets’ last seven games as an underdog.
- Braves are 9-0 in their last nine Game 3s of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ last five games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mets vs Braves Picks
Mahle is throwing the baseball extremely well, and he’s in the type of form that can quiet the Mets’ bats. Thornton is looking shaky, and the Braves are a much better offensive team at home. I’ll back Atlanta on the moneyline.
Pick: Braves -162/TonyBet
