Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
The Phillies are a -130 favorite at MLB betting sites. The Mets come back at +102. The total is set at 9.5 runs, and the Over has cashed in three straight.
This is the first meeting between these two in 2026, but Philadelphia has won four straight.
Phillies vs Mets Analysis
Philadelphia will likely sneak into the playoffs later this year as a Wild Card team, but they aren’t exactly having the best campaign. The Phils are in second place in the National League East with a 40-34 record, and their talented offense has had issues all year consistently producing runs. Philly is 21st in runs scored and 29th in team average. They’re also towards the bottom of the Majors in OBP, hits, and SLG.
However, the Phillies come into this series in decent shape, going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Nola takes the hill here, and he’ll be hoping to turn around his recent struggles. The right-hander has allowed eight earned runs across his previous two starts, and he gave up five earned runs in his most recent outing at home. He’s had success in his career against New York, though, holding them to a .229 average across 96 at-bats.
New York has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year. A franchise-worst 12-game losing streak earlier this season was cause for concern, and they have yet to truly improve on their horrible start. The Mets are seven games below .500 and a whole 14.5 games out of first place in this division. Even a miracle is unlikely to help this ball club make a run at the playoffs. Considering they have one of the richest lineups in baseball, New York simply cannot find any consistency, especially at the plate.
Carlos Mendoza’s group is bottom-five in the MLB in nearly every major offensive category. Bo Bichette is having a career-worst season in his first year in New York, while Francisco Lindor can’t stay off the IL. Elsewhere, Marcus Semien is struggling immensely, while Mark Vientos also can’t find a rhythm offensively. The Mets will hand Manaea the baseball in the opener, and he’s been reliable lately. The lefty hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six outings.
Phillies vs Mets Picks
What stands out to me here is Philadelphia’s success against Manaea. As a lineup, they’re hitting .297 across 111 at-bats. That’s a massive sample size, and while Manaea’s numbers are respectable lately, this feels like a clear chance for the Phillies’ bats to break out.
Pick: Phillies -103/TonyBet
.jpg "Photo courtesy of Wally Gobetz (Flickr), CC by 2.0")
